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Franco
02-13-2009, 08:56 PM
Anyone keeping track of how far it has fallen since the Dems have been shoving the spendulus bill down our throats? How much has it fallen since the election? Looks like the investment money doesn't like what is going on.

Marvin S
02-13-2009, 09:20 PM
I think what they don't like is - no one in this ADMINISTRATION SEEMS TO HAVE A CLUE. :confused:, is what this administration is. Back to the R's in 2010. :D :D & a 1 term POTUS, more :D :D

TN_LAB
02-14-2009, 07:21 AM
Dow Jones

Nov 4, 2008
9,625

Feb 13, 2009
8,726

That's a 900 point drop, which is about 9%

K G
02-14-2009, 09:38 AM
Dow Jones

Nov 4, 2008
9,625

Feb 13, 2009
8,726

That's a 900 point drop, which is about 9%

CNBC shows the DJIA closed at 7850.41 on 2/13/09. I could be wrong, but it think it's been longer than 4 months since it started with a 9....:wink:

kg

TN_LAB
02-14-2009, 01:07 PM
CNBC shows the DJIA closed at 7850.41 on 2/13/09. I could be wrong, but it think it's been longer than 4 months since it started with a 9....:wink:

kg

doh!

you are correct. brain fart! :D

Franco
02-17-2009, 11:30 AM
Dow is down 250 points on the signing of the Steal From Us Bill.
Down to 7,500 and change!

Goose
02-17-2009, 12:11 PM
Obama doesn't care about the direction of the stock market...just like Fidel Castro doesn't care about the direction of the Cuban stock market.

Patrick Johndrow
02-17-2009, 04:17 PM
Obama is going to be the worst President....no check that...the WORST leader this world had ever seen....what a freaking joke.

well here is the changes the SOB promised.


This guy is proof we need an IQ test for people to vote.

Uncle Bill
02-17-2009, 04:31 PM
While this is a tad tardy, it's still worth a read, since it's certainly applicable. Again, from Mr. Bonner... enjoy, UB

The battle is on!

But let’s take a quick look at the combatants...and try to understand what is really going on.
On the one side is General Market. He’s a sly, unpredictable...some would say ‘unbeatable’...foe. He’s also extremely aggressive.

On the other side, there are the feds...the fixers...the meddlers...the central bankers and finance ministers. They have their ground troops, their weapons of mass destruction, their defensive ramparts, and their strategic theories. And many people believe they have the ultimate weapon in this war – the Nuclear Option...

For the last year and a half, General Market has been master of the field. He’s rolled back the fixers everywhere. The world’s stock markets have suffered defeat after defeat – wiping out about half their wealth, about $30 trillion worth. Even markets thought to be “decoupled” with those of the Western world – such as China and India – fell right over as soon as General Market attacked.

As to property...General Market has already captured about 25% of the domestic real estate in the United States...and who knows how much overseas.

In some places, U.S. housing has suffered more damage than from a fire or a tornado. In Lehigh Acres, near Fort Myers, Florida, the New York Times says houses are selling 80% off their peaks. “Fast food restaurants are laying people off or closing. Crime is up, school enrollment is down and one in four residents received food stamps in December, nearly a fourfold increase since 2006.”

It’s back to the ’30s in Lee County, Florida:
“The organizations offering food in Lehigh Acres have seen demand increase by as much as 75% in the last year. And the people being served are no longer just the chronic poor. The line at Faith Lutheran had a mix of ages, races, and former income levels.”

Abandoned houses are stripped of anything that can be sold...and used by drug gangs.

And it’s not just housing that is being abandoned. “Ghost malls,” are coming soon, says one commentator. People without money don’t buy stuff. And so, malls are where they don’t go. Malls become abandoned...deserted...vandalized, taken over by gangs and crazy people.
Hasn’t happened yet? Stay tuned...
General Market has done to world property values about what Sherman did to Atlanta. Nobody knows the total loss, but it is probably near $15 trillion...

And there are huge losses in other areas too. Corporate bond prices – especially in the ‘junk’ category – have collapsed. Hedge funds, banks and investment firms have lost billions in speculations. The value of minerals and oil have fallen 50% - 75%.
What’s the total damage? Rupert Murdoch says it’s around $50 trillion – which is probably not too far off the market.

But the feds aren’t completely beaten. They’re mobilizing all over the world to fight the depression. Yes, the ‘d’ word has escaped the censors. Bill Gross of PIMCO says the US could be headed for a ‘mini-depression.’ And over at MSN Money, Jon Markman wonders if it isn’t already “too late to escape a depression?”

We keep pointing out that you can fight a recession with rate cuts and more public spending, but you can’t beat a depression using those tactics.
Still, the feds are going to try! Today’s news tells us that they’re becoming more and more desperate.

“Obama rolls out his big guns,” says the headline in the International Herald Tribune . The big guns are blasting away in favor of the administration’s Boondogglization program:
Larry Summers told Congress to pass Obama’s stimulus bill “as quickly as possible, to contain what is a very damaging and potentially deflationary spiral.”
Obama himself said we might be on the verge of “catastrophe.” And Summers added, “If there was ever a moment to transcend politics, this is that moment.”

But what good is $1 trillion worth of boondoggle spending going to do? General Market has just erased $50 trillion assets. All together, the feds have probably been able to put back a couple trillion – at most. And most of what they are putting back is just taken from some other front...it is not really a net increase in the feds’ firepower.

*** There are two main schools of thought on the bailouts.
1) they are not targeted properly (the media spends a lot of ink debating whether the bailouts should be loans, asset purchases, direct takeovers, bad banks or other gimcrackery)
2) they are not big enough...(which we will discuss in a minute)
And then, there’s our hooky school of thought too. If there is evidence or experience to suggest that these bailout plans will work we haven’t heard of it. In the two instances in which they were tried, they failed. Plus, there is no theory that makes any sense to us explaining why or how they SHOULD work. Bad bets don’t get better when you lend the bettor more money. They just become more expensive.

But no one is interested in our analysis or our advice. We keep our “President’s Hotline” available. Obama can call anytime he wants. We’ll even pay for the call. But no government has ever asked our counsel; probably, none ever will.

So, let’s return to the advice that the feds are taking seriously:
The U.S. risks “falling into an economic abyss,” says Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Krugman. He says we’re “on the edge of catastrophe.”
Hold on a minute. Krugman’s warning bell sounds for all the world like the one we used to ring regularly. We used words like “abyss”... “catastrophe”.... “disaster”... “Armageddon.”. We needed to yell like that to get readers’ attention. Most ignored us anyway; they thought we were kooky alarmists. Besides, they were sure everything was great and getting better all the time.

Now, we no longer have to use words like ‘apocalypse’ and ‘armageddon.” Thank God. Words like that are hard to spell. Besides the facts shout loudly enough. We don’t need to get anyone’s attention. What’s needed now is quiet reflection.

Krugman is screaming because he thinks the U.S. bailout plan is not bold enough. He’s right about that. You’re not going to offset General Market’s $50 trillion in damages to with $1 trillion in boodoggles. Krugman thinks you need to spend a lot more.

The aforementioned Bill Gross of PIMCO agrees. He says “trillions” will have to be spent.
And so, dear reader, the war goes on.
And it’s getting more and more expensive. General Market does his damage. And the cost of fighting him mounts. Goldman Sachs says the U.S. Treasury will borrow $2.5 trillion this fiscal year.

How are they going to borrow that kind of money without driving up the price of borrowed funds? ‘Borrow from yourself,’ say the simpleton advisors. They’re urging the Fed to buy the Treasury’s paper itself. That way, America won’t be beholden to foreign lenders – notably, the Chinese – and bond yields won’t be forced up by the buying pressure.

But wait a li’l cotton pickin’ minute. Where does the Fed get trillions of dollars to buy U.S. paper? Oh, we forgot...it just creates it ‘out of thin air.’
Two and a half trillion is nothing but a little ‘2’ and a little ‘5’ followed by 11 little zeros. Heck, the Fed has all the zeros you could want. If not, it can always borrow some from Gideon Gono. He just took 12 zeros off the Zimbabwe dollar; maybe we’ll be able to use them in the US.

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning

kjrice
02-17-2009, 08:05 PM
I guess people forgot about what a great Job Jimmy Carter did as POTUS, except this one will be worse.

thunderdan
02-17-2009, 08:46 PM
What is going on with the market is enough to make me sick. I should have taken the money I had, yes had, in the stock market, bought several FC's and would be ahead right now. At least I would have a really nice or a few really nice animals that i could actually look at and see my investment. AGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH

YardleyLabs
02-17-2009, 09:23 PM
What is going on with the market is enough to make me sick. I should have taken the money I had, yes had, in the stock market, bought several FC's and would be ahead right now. At least I would have a really nice or a few really nice animals that i could actually look at and see my investment. AGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH

Think of it this way, Dan. You still have your truck.:D I can't even bear to look at my account statements any more. I also worry about how many trainers will be forced out of business.

Raymond Little
02-17-2009, 10:11 PM
Think of it this way, Dan. You still have your truck.:D I can't even bear to look at my account statements any more. I also worry about how many trainers will be forced out of business.

Hell Jeff, THEY CAN GET INLINE FOR A PIECE OF THE T .A .R .P ain't that the way socialists do it???????????????


Minority Group Regards

Richard Halstead
02-18-2009, 10:31 AM
I am thinking about doing some bottom fishing. drug company's have gotten so low that there dividends are approaching 10%, but I'll wait for a while before pulling the trigger. I don't think we have reached the bottom they still may cut the rate.

badbullgator
02-18-2009, 10:34 AM
I am thinking about doing some bottom fishing. drug company's have gotten so low that there dividends are approaching 10%, but I'll wait for a while before pulling the trigger. I don't think we have reached the bottom.


Richard I bet the bottom is closer to 5500

labdoc
02-18-2009, 11:25 AM
With the latest auto bailouts, I'm waiting for under 5000. I believe the American public has about had enough of all this give-away money. The telling factor me is the lackluster reaction to Obama's saving-of-our-country stimulus package. The market's up 20 whole points!!!!

kjrice
02-18-2009, 12:00 PM
With the latest auto bailouts, I'm waiting for under 5000. I believe the American public has about had enough of all this give-away money. The telling factor me is the lackluster reaction to Obama's saving-of-our-country stimulus package. The market's up 20 whole points!!!!

The worst is yet to come. This is Jimmy Carter II, but on steroids.

It looks like my VA home loan benefit is worth something again.

duckheads
02-18-2009, 12:23 PM
wait until they have had time to read the bill and find out about ALL of the pork. it will continue to go down. what is really crap is Chrysler is not even a publicly traded company. i think some investment bankers own it. let them fail if they can't get their act together. i have owned one Chrysler and will never own another. it was a piece of crap. my wife's boss bought a new 300 and had nothing but trouble. i think he sold it before he owned it 2 years. if i run my business into the ground no one is going to give me any money. i have to cut expenses and find new ways to increase revenue not look to the guberment to save me!!!!!!!!!!!!

Richard Halstead
02-18-2009, 01:35 PM
wait until they have had time to read the bill and find out about ALL of the pork. it will continue to go down. what is really crap is Chrysler is not even a publicly traded company. i think some investment bankers own it. let them fail if they can't get their act together. i have owned one Chrysler and will never own another. it was a piece of crap. my wife's boss bought a new 300 and had nothing but trouble. i think he sold it before he owned it 2 years. if i run my business into the ground no one is going to give me any money. i have to cut expenses and find new ways to increase revenue not look to the guberment to save me!!!!!!!!!!!!


The CEO of Chrysler is the same Bob Nordelli that was CEO of Home Depot before they let him go with 200+ million dollars. Chrysler obtained his services for $1 per year. He still must have cash left from Home Depot. Funny how the guys like Nordelli can be inefficient at one job and get aother job running another problem company.

badbullgator
02-18-2009, 02:12 PM
With the latest auto bailouts, I'm waiting for under 5000. I believe the American public has about had enough of all this give-away money. The telling factor me is the lackluster reaction to Obama's saving-of-our-country stimulus package. The market's up 20 whole points!!!!


Ok I just saw on the news that the new mortgage bailout will help home owners who owe more than their home is worth, underwater seems to be the term they use kind of like upside down for a car loan. If I heard this incorrectly please stop here, but if I did hear correctly can someone please tell me how you buy a house a year or two ago and pay X amount for it knowing your payment will be X dollars a month and now because your house is now worth less than the X dollars you paid for it you somehow deserve help. Barring you taking an ARM thinking that you would flip the house and make money before your rate went up (and if you did that it is your problem isn’t it??), are your payments not still the same? It seems you just made a bad investment if this is the case. Now if you lost your job because of the economy I can understand that you can’t make the payments, but again why do I now have to supplement your mortgage? Hell as long as we are giving out money for bad investments I would like some for bets that I made on underdogs…….
BTW- market is now down 15

labdoc
02-18-2009, 02:31 PM
Badbull, I have no clue. I see today Obummer is touting another $75 billion housing project for those "underwater". I am SERIOUSLY thinking about getting behind on my mortgage payments so I can get some of this bail-out stuff.

America, the land that now rewards those who make poor decisions regards,

Franco
02-18-2009, 03:08 PM
Obomo is doing what he promised in his campaign, to redistribute the wealth.

Welcome to Big Brother and the new UASR

United American Socialistic Republic

land of the entitled
home of the dependent on government

Trickle up poverty is his plan.


Maybe should change our Nation's symbol from the American Bald Eagle to the American Grey Vulture!

:-x

Vicki Worthington
02-18-2009, 03:28 PM
I am SERIOUSLY thinking about getting behind on my mortgage payments so I can get some of this bail-out stuff.

You probably make too much money, even if you did! Haven't you noticed that the "middle class" has somehow encompassed the poverty level indexed to inflation!

Patrick Johndrow
02-19-2009, 07:01 PM
Dow 7,465.95 ...lowest close since 2002...and only a month in office...well he is "stimulating" something....you libs got you a winner there. :)

badbullgator
02-20-2009, 09:15 AM
Dow 7,465.95 ...lowest close since 2002...and only a month in office...well he is "stimulating" something....you libs got you a winner there. :)


Patrick you have been around long enough to know that this is all BUSH's fault. Even 12 months form now when the market hits 5000 it will be the fault of GW;-)
I am sure someone:rolleyes: will be along to tell you that shortly

Patrick Johndrow
02-20-2009, 09:37 AM
Patrick you have been around long enough to know that this is all BUSH's fault. Even 12 months form now when the market hits 5000 it will be the fault of GW;-)
I am sure someone:rolleyes: will be along to tell you that shortly

I have most of them on "ignore" so I don't have to read it unless someone quotes them :)

badbullgator
02-20-2009, 11:20 AM
FWIW - nice way to start a Friday....11am and the market is down 125 points....
5000 getting closer....see how well BHO's plan is working, soon the only way to afford anything will be to get it from the goberment

Raymond Little
02-20-2009, 11:41 AM
DJIA -139.70 AND FALLING
7329.25


Change We Can Belivin

paul young
02-20-2009, 11:43 AM
well Corey, everything was Clinton's fault as far as you guys were concerned from 2000-2008...-Paul

badbullgator
02-20-2009, 11:48 AM
Paul
Show me where I ever said that, or for that matter have EVER even used the name Clinton in a post. FWIW- while I am no fan I don't rate Slick Willie nearly as low as some others. Hell I even bet old Bill would be a blast to party with.
Previous administrations always cause problems for the next president and always get at least some of the balme I am sure it will be Bushes fault for at least the next 4 years, heck I have even heard that this is all Regans fault from the dems....
just saying

paul young
02-20-2009, 11:50 AM
R.- it went from 11,000+ to the 8000's in Bush's last year in office.

my company's stock (GD) was $95+ less than a year ago. by October 2008 it had fallen deep into the 50's. this despite the largest backlog in the corporation's history and an EXCELLENT PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO.

so, which one of you has the answers to our economic problems? i know i don't. it appears the rest of the world's nations don't, either.

i do think the war in Iraq was a big part of the problem in this country.-Paul

paul young
02-20-2009, 11:55 AM
i didn't mean to single you out, Corey. i did mean to address the generalalized statements that many of our conservative friends have put up on this forum.

please accept my apology.-Paul

badbullgator
02-20-2009, 12:00 PM
Paul
I don’t know the answer, but I bet a big help would be for people and nations to live within their means. Most of our mess now is because of easy credit to people/businesses/corporations/governments that had no business getting it. Even big “healthy” companies/contries were/are guilty of over extending themselves and we are paying the price for it now. I don’t know enough to know how things like real estate values can soar like they did. At one point my house was “worth” 500K. I promise you it is not really worth that, maybe 250K, but never 500K. I am not sure how we got there. I looked at real estate during the growing boom and it just never seemed like a good idea to me that I could buy something for 200K and in a few months or a year it would be worth 400K. It is that old “if it sounds too good to be true” thing, but I guess most people didn’t understand that. Same was true of the internet bubble, how in the hell was a company that had no real assents, such as Amazon, worth a billion dollars? How do these things get so blown up?

paul young
02-20-2009, 12:14 PM
i am just as confused concerning real estate values as you are.....

i agree with you 100% concerning living within your means.-Paul

Richard Halstead
02-20-2009, 12:48 PM
Is this panic selling? Stocks are over sold the value to price should be turning the market around. Momentum traders keep driving the price to where confidence in the market is shaken. The same momentum drove oil to the range of over $100 + per barrel.

paul young
02-20-2009, 12:54 PM
i would say that was GREED....-Paul

Uncle Bill
02-20-2009, 01:03 PM
i would say that was GREED....-Paul


And how would you caracterize what your liberal politicians did with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?

UB

Marvin S
02-20-2009, 01:09 PM
And how would you caracterize what your liberal politicians did with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? UB


Their politicians are not liberal in the eyes of the sheeple - they are middle of the roaders - along with yellow lines & dead skunks.

Franco
02-20-2009, 02:29 PM
i do think the war in Iraq was a big part of the problem in this country.-Paul

Wars are generally good for our economy, not that I advocate starting one for the economy's sake. However, my instincts tell me that Obomo will start a war with either Pakistan or Iran to help maintain popularity. Maybe sending more troops to Afgan. is a step he'll take in proving my instincts correct. Lets send troops over the boaders could be logical to this naive President.

paul young
02-20-2009, 02:35 PM
i think there's a difference between lousy oversight and rampant profiteering thru futures option trading.

the politicians in leadership positions were not manipulating the market to reap obscene profits at the expense of us all. they just didn't do their job as it should have been done.

where were "your" politicians at the time, on recess?

this was already addressed on this forum months ago. perhaps you forgot?

i'm just glad a lot of those margin magicians took a bath when their house of cards collapsed. serves them right. there was no basis for $140 per barrel oil other than GREED!-Paul

paul young
02-20-2009, 02:46 PM
then why is my company, a defense industry giant which supplies, among other things, the m1a3 main battle tank seeing it's stock price erode? "generally" my achin' a$$!

your instincts helped to elect the worst POTUS in the last 50 years to successive terms.

i was referring to taking the U.S. economy to the brink of collapse thru spending funds that weren't there to be used.

that is exactly what Corey alluded toin his post, but on a scale that is hard to imagine for a working stiff like me.-Paul

Franco
02-20-2009, 02:53 PM
then why is my company, a defense industry giant which supplies, among other things, the m1a3 main battle tank seeing it's stock price erode? "generally" my achin' a$$!

your instincts helped to elect the worst POTUS in the last 50 years to successive terms.



Because Defense budgets will be drastically cut, which makes stock in your company worth less.

The worst POTUS in the last 50 years is Lyndon Bains Johnson. GW is the second worse yet was still a much better choice than Kerry or Gore!

paul young
02-20-2009, 03:00 PM
that's strange; at my division (electric boat) the orders for nuclear attack subs have been doubled.

did you miss what i said about the largest backlog in THE HISTORY of the CORPORATION of which EB is just one DIVISION?-Paul

Franco
02-20-2009, 03:00 PM
I had someone at work ask me what they should do about their 401k which is worth half of what it was a year ago. I told them that I got out of the market in 01 but, that if I still owned mutual funds, I would sell them today. Take your licking today or take a much bigger one tomorrow because we can't afford the trillions this adminstration is going to spend. Our dollar will be worthless with the morons running the show today. Large money investors know this and that is why the stock market will continue to fall.

Uncle Bill
02-20-2009, 04:42 PM
i'm just glad a lot of those margin magicians took a bath when their house of cards collapsed. serves them right. there was no basis for $140 per barrel oil other than GREED!-Paul



Why must those in unions only see the world through class envy? The sad thing is, the market corrected, but in your eyes the class envy is still alive.

I'd never expect to change your views on anything, Paul. But when the bill your administration has foisted on this nation starts into the inflationary stage, then you will see how much it has...and will...cost you. You won't have to wait for your children to be clobbered.

Hope you have a cellar full of Kuggerrands and Morgans.

BTW, if you check the time lines, I think you'll find I was the earliest poster on board, warning of the bank problems. But then, your main thoughts were in getting President Bush ousted any way you could. Congratulations. "Mission accomplished." That's gotta make you happy.

UB

Marvin S
02-20-2009, 08:08 PM
I had someone at work ask me what they should do about their 401k which is worth half of what it was a year ago. I told them that I got out of the market in 01 but, that if I still owned mutual funds, I would sell them today. Take your licking today or take a much bigger one tomorrow because we can't afford the trillions this adminstration is going to spend. Our dollar will be worthless with the morons running the show today. Large money investors know this and that is why the stock market will continue to fall.

Booty, I think you are giving bad advice - there has been considerable money made since 2001 & you can't share in the inflationary trends if you have no inflationary sensitive investments. Right now the shakeout is from those who only thought markets go up.

I have been selectively purchasing on drops & have several stocks (our own little mutual fund) now that I believe to be potential 2-10 bangers, hopefully even better than that. Some won't make it but those that do will more than compensate for the small losses. I really try to buy good stocks (not the market flavor of the day) & hatch them. Having grown up on a dryland farm I fully understand that all crops planted will not be harvested.

Now, my reason for believing this is there is more mental horsepower in the private sector than in the public sector, if they can get a set of rules in place, & they will, it will be off to the races. The people that caused this knew exactly what they were doing (the private sector, that is), while those in the public sector were only happy to share in the wealth while it was available. I personally do not believe we have anyone in charge on the public sector side with the mental capability &/or experience to set policy & procedure to deal with these outbreaks. & that's what would need to be done.

In the meantime, as a relatively little guy I will hang around & pick up the crumbs. It's a little like betting on the Giants to go all the way last year - you have to step to the plate because you believe the odds & the players will only create a winning combination.

Patrick Johndrow
02-20-2009, 08:21 PM
Dow 7,465.95 ...lowest close since 2002...and only a month in office...well he is "stimulating" something....you libs got you a winner there. :)



Dow 7,365.66


Ok...I know this is a dumb question...the Dow can only go to ZERO...Right?

Richard Halstead
02-20-2009, 08:56 PM
Dow 7,365.66


Ok...I know this is a dumb question...the Dow can only go to ZERO...Right?


As I understand the 30 stocks that make the DOW would have to go to zero, but some of these stocks are profitable. Some of thebanks receiving the bailout are close. Citi is about $2/share and Bank of America a little over $3.
If this statement about going to zero was in jest well than ... nevermind.

Patrick Johndrow
02-21-2009, 02:24 AM
Yeah Richard...it was kind of a joke...but not really funny today...maybe in a six years it will be funny.

thunderdan
02-22-2009, 09:53 AM
Booty, I think you are giving bad advice - there has been considerable money made since 2001 & you can't share in the inflationary trends if you have no inflationary sensitive investments. Right now the shakeout is from those who only thought markets go up.

I have been selectively purchasing on drops & have several stocks (our own little mutual fund) now that I believe to be potential 2-10 bangers, hopefully even better than that. Some won't make it but those that do will more than compensate for the small losses. I really try to buy good stocks (not the market flavor of the day) & hatch them. Having grown up on a dryland farm I fully understand that all crops planted will not be harvested.

Now, my reason for believing this is there is more mental horsepower in the private sector than in the public sector, if they can get a set of rules in place, & they will, it will be off to the races. The people that caused this knew exactly what they were doing (the private sector, that is), while those in the public sector were only happy to share in the wealth while it was available. I personally do not believe we have anyone in charge on the public sector side with the mental capability &/or experience to set policy & procedure to deal with these outbreaks. & that's what would need to be done.

In the meantime, as a relatively little guy I will hang around & pick up the crumbs. It's a little like betting on the Giants to go all the way last year - you have to step to the plate because you believe the odds & the players will only create a winning combination.

Good Post marvin. I am curious as to what companies you are backing long? You can PM me if you prefer. I have been doing a ton of research as I am 90 percent sidelined until I see some positive signals.

I do believe that we have not seen the bottom of the market yet. I was actually impressed with the bounce back off of the lows on Friday but America is looking for some type of direction to get out of this mess. I too believe that we will see the DJIA in the 6200-6500, S&P below 700 range before we start our up trend.

thanks

Jim Pickering
02-22-2009, 12:36 PM
I had done a fantastic job of avoiding the Potus Place until this morning. There is nothing good on the main forum except the Golden Bitches thread and for me that is worse then politics. Since I did not have anything civil to add there I clicked on Potus Place and right on top was this Stock Market thread, a subject near and dear to my heart. Maybe I can play here and be a bit more civil.


Wars are generally good for our economy, not that I advocate starting one for the economy's sake.

I will beg to differ Mr. Booty; wars are never good for the economy. Maybe from the point of view that wars reduce the workforce wars may have a positive effect on unemployment rates, but otherwise not so. Well, one could argue that in the case of our, make that Mr. Bush’s and Mr. Chaney’s, current war the stock holders of Halliburton faired nicely. However, prior to this current war the benefits of reconstruction accrued of the country destroyed and never exceeded the economic damage.

One can argue that government spending to purchase the weapons of war can stimulate the economy but it is stimulating a manufacturing sector that one would hope is not sustainable. In any case wars generate excess government spending how can one be critical of a government spending stimulus package for infrastructure and then applaud government spending for a war. Both do the same thing except generating jobs for making weapons of war is by definition depressing. IF the government is to spend in excess of tax revenues it is better IMHO to spend those funds where they will benefit the economy in total as with infrastructure as opposed to a narrow segment of economy, defense contractors.

On the more negative side wars are by definition uncertain. The outcome is not always a given nor is the duration, therefore, planning and financing of wars are difficult and disruptive to stable economic growth. If you correlate wars with the stock market you will clearly see that wars are a big downer for the stock market.

Bottom line, the argument that wars are good for the economy is difficult to support with facts and that wars are good for the stock market simply cannot be supported with facts.

Jim Pickering
02-22-2009, 01:11 PM
I had someone at work ask me what they should do about their 401k which is worth half of what it was a year ago. I told them that I got out of the market in 01 but, that if I still owned mutual funds, I would sell them today.


Booty, I think you are giving bad advice - there has been considerable money made since 2001 & you can't share in the inflationary trends if you have no inflationary sensitive investments. Right now the shakeout is from those who only thought markets go up.


IMHO opinion you are both are giving bad advice in that your timing is no correct. Read on. My applogy for the length.


Dow 7,365.66
Ok...I know this is a dumb question...the Dow can only go to ZERO...Right?

Right the DJIA cannot go below zero, but you needn’t worry. I would not expect the DJIA to get to zero; hopefully the bottom will be closer to 2000, but 400 is not outside the realm of possibilities.

I wish I had the time to present some facts as respects excess spending and economic policy or lack thereof for each administration over the past quarter century. Apparently some of you have not been paying attention or are so polarized by your ideology that you ignore information that does not support it. However, I do not have the time and the historical facts are a Google search away for anyone who is seriously interested.

How and why the stock market, the DJIA, has fallen from 14,093 to the intraday low of 7255 hit shortly after 1:00 PM Friday is important only for those who are still young and would like to avoid riding the stock market down during the next major decline 30-40 years from now. The more pertinent question for the old farts is where the stock market is likely to go from here?

Our friend Marvin tells us that he is buying stocks on the dips, a stock investment strategy that has served long term investors well for at least 25 years. FWIW I will share a different point of view. Please understand that I am not a stock or investment professional of any type. I am a simple citizen who worked hard in years past, lived below my means and saved for the rainy day that is now here. We, my wife and I, can get by from here without making a lot more money, however, we cannot afford to loose any. To avoid loosing I have studied and watched the stock market closely at times and sat back at others. Lately I am watching and will share what I am looking for the stock market to do from here.

Based on past posts, Marvin selects individual stocks based on the fundamentals of the companies. I take a different approach. I could care less about fundamentals; I study the technical chart patterns of stocks and more importantly the stock indexes. There are volumes available on technical analysis so way too much to try to explain it here, except to say that I subscribe to a theory of chart analysis called Elliot Waves ro determine the primary trend of the stock market. The Elliot Wave theory is based on the premise that liquid markets move according to human psychology and that human nature never changes. In fact, human psychology, herd mentality, is predictable.

Here is an Elliot Wave analysis of where the stock market is going from here.

Friday the stock market as measured by the DJIA made a new low for this leg down hitting 7255 shortly after one PM. The market needed to make this new low below the previous low of 7449 established Nov 21, 2008 to complete the last wave down of the most near term pattern. The stock index charts would look better if the DJIA continued to decline to near 6500 but for now the minimum decline that allows for calling the near term pattern complete has been achieved. So we could see a rally next week of a couple hundred points or more down side action for a couple more weeks before that rally starts. Whether the rally started late last Friday or will start from a lower level within the next couple weeks the DJIA is not likely to rally above the 8,000 level. This brief rally will be a fourth wave of the next higher pattern and once that is complete the DJIA will turn down again in the fifth and final leg of this pattern. If the near term pattern was completed at 7255 on Friday then the last leg down of the next higher pattern will take the market to the 6500+/- level. If the near term leg did not complete Friday and carries lower to near 6500 before the brief rally then the final leg of the next higher pattern will carry to some point below where the rally statted in order to establish a new low required to call the pattern complete per the rules of Elliot Wave analysis.

If you are still reading, I assume you are keeping up and understand. But to review the last leg of the most near term patter either completed last Friday or will complete shortly. The patter of the next higher degree is also nearing completion with a counter trend up leg and the final down leg to be complete. Now the good news is that once these two patterns are complete it appears that the pattern that started with the market top of 14,093 in 2007 is also complete and therefore we should see a major bear market rally in the stock market. The market will not go straight up. Keep in mind that the major trend is down so the coming rally will be counter trend move which typically takes the patter of three waves, up-down-up. It is much too early to attempt to predict the timing or magnitude of each of the three waves, but counter trend rallies typically retrace between 38% and 62% of the preceding impulse move which in this case is the decline from 14,000 to whatever low is established and that is anticipated to be around 6500. You can do the arithmetic but this rally could take the DJIA back above 9,000 and possibly as high as 11,000. I cannot wait to see how those on the far right deal with this. Will Obama get any credit or will it be the legacy of George Bush come back to save the economy? Actually it would not matter who is in the White House.

For those salivating for a one term presidency for Obama there is still hope. After the above mentioned stock market rally that takes the DJIA back to the 10,000 area has run its course Katy bar the door. There is not bottom the next time down. One could argue that there is some minor chart support at 4000 in the DJIA but that is a stretch. The first meaningful support is at 2,000 which was the bottom of the 1987 mini crash.

The plot thickens for those who subscribe to the Dow Theory for predicting market direction. The new low in the DJIA on Friday confirmed a new low established a couple weeks back in the Dow Jones Transportation Average. According to the Dow Theory this indicated the market trend is down and constitutes a sell signal. So will the Dow Theory or the Elliot Wave theory correct?

My guess is that if Mr. Booty got out stocks in 2001 he is ahead of those who rode the market up and back down from there. However, if I had ridden the market down, as tough as it would be I would wait for the big rally back up and start getting out above 9,000. But that is the problem that most have with investing in stocks. How many would sell with the market going up and looking at a 50% gain?

Should I really hit the submit button? What the heck.

K G
02-22-2009, 02:04 PM
Thanks for taking the time to post that, Jim. VERY interesting information and theoretical analysis.

kg

Uncle Bill
02-22-2009, 03:53 PM
Jim Pickering wrote:

I am a simple citizen who worked hard in years past, lived below my means and saved for the rainy day that is now here. We, my wife and I, can get by from here without making a lot more money, however, we cannot afford to loose any.

Since you make no mention of it, do you consider the so-called 'stimulus' package a plus or minus?

Are you having doubts the present administration is solving the financial problems so you won't 'loose any'?

Have you contemplated your losses when the result of the printing presses rolling out the trillions or so $$$$ to provide for all the democrat pork in this bill, bring about an inflationary spiral that will make Carter's look like a piker.

Hope you have a room full of Maple Leafs and Kuggerands, or beaucoups pre-65 silver coins.

UB

thunderdan
02-22-2009, 06:36 PM
Jim,

Thanks for taking the time to post your response. It was one of the best explained I have read. I am in agreement that we are going to see those levels, it is a matter of time. I would not mind a short uptick a few hundred points to make a couple of real quick trades. I actually sidelined all of my equities into cash and plan to get back in at those 6500 levels.

For me I am going into Eagles at the pullback that I think we will see in Gold. I think EAGLES are the easiest to move if needed. I am thinking that the Dow will short term rise a few hundred points, Gold will drop back into the low to mid 900's. At least that is my hope, get into some physical gold, make a few quick bucks on the rise of the market, then wait it out.

Do you think we will see a dow to gold ratio of 3 or 4 to 1?

thunderdan
02-22-2009, 10:32 PM
Looks like the futures are up by 80 points.

txbadger
02-23-2009, 11:01 AM
Here's a look at the Market, as measured by the SPX:

http://i254.photobucket.com/albums/hh93/thetxbadger/WklySPX.jpg

A simple way to look at the market is with a monthly chart with a 12 ma.... it'll keep one out of trouble, if only a long side player.

Imho, the market won't make a meaningfull move + until the quarterly chart turns up.

As of this post dji is -73 and SPX -25

Marvin S
02-23-2009, 11:53 AM
Our friend Marvin tells us that he is buying stocks on the dips, a stock investment strategy that has served long term investors well for at least 25 years. FWIW I will share a different point of view. Please understand that I am not a stock or investment professional of any type. I am a simple citizen who worked hard in years past, lived below my means and saved for the rainy day that is now here.

If you haven't read the "Millionaire Next Door", you should - it describes a lot of us in the terms you state above.


Based on past posts, Marvin selects individual stocks based on the fundamentals of the companies. I take a different approach. I could care less about fundamentals; I study the technical chart patterns of stocks and more importantly the stock indexes. There are volumes available on technical analysis so way too much to try to explain it here, except to say that I subscribe to a theory of chart analysis called Elliot Waves ro determine the primary trend of the stock market. The Elliot Wave theory is based on the premise that liquid markets move according to human psychology and that human nature never changes. In fact, human psychology, herd mentality, is predictable.

Do you know of any mutual funds that use Elliott Wave's in their evaluation of a stock? This sounds an a lot like the Charles (the market is always too high) Allmon's theory of not investing money he was given to invest.

As for my selection methods, it's a little more complicated than you describe, for example, I avoid industries that have shown they are difficult to follow through cycles & generally don't make money for their investors. I am trying to put it down on paper for my investing sons to follow & find that hard to do. The generalities are not hard, the specifics are hard to put into words. How do you explain the pschycology of taking a loss & why you need to get on with the task at hand?


So will the Dow Theory or the Elliot Wave theory correct?

The person with the answer to that question will make a lot of money.


My guess is that if Mr. Booty got out stocks in 2001 he is ahead of those who rode the market up and back down from there. However, if I had ridden the market down, as tough as it would be I would wait for the big rally back up and start getting out above 9,000. But that is the problem that most have with investing in stocks. How many would sell with the market going up and looking at a 50% gain?

If all categories & stocks moved in lock step it would be like buying bonds, what you see is what you get - but stocks are a little more complicated. As for getting out in 2001, there has been serious money made since that time by astute management of assets. As for selling a 50% gain, I would never say never, but stocks should be purchased with potential gains greater than 50% in mind, IMO.

Richard Halstead
02-23-2009, 01:27 PM
Marvin can you quit using the small print? It's difficult to read your mix of font sizes.

Patrick Johndrow
02-23-2009, 10:07 PM
Dow 7,365.66


Ok...I know this is a dumb question...the Dow can only go to ZERO...Right?



Dow 7,114.77 -250.89 (-3.41% )


Obama is stimulating something...but it aint growth.

Marvin S
02-23-2009, 11:06 PM
Dow 7,114.77 -250.89 (-3.41% )


Obama is stimulating something...but it aint growth.

One of the traders on CNBC said the street believe BO & his henchpeople to be clueless. It could be a long 4 years. :rolleyes:

badbullgator
02-24-2009, 08:06 AM
Anyone want to bet it goes below 7000 today? And what will it do tomorrow after BHO's speach tonight?

thunderdan
02-24-2009, 08:18 AM
I actually think we will track up in the morning, and then it is anyone's guess. Based on past performance once BHO opens his mouth lookout below. It is painfully obvious what the market feels about what he is doing. Right or wrong, it is obvious.

If we break below 7k look out below. I know we already broke the 1997 lows already, but I think for many retail investors they see below 7k and they are dumping. Just my own uneducated opinion....

trying to stuff my mattress with quarters....

Patrick Johndrow
02-24-2009, 08:26 AM
Anyone want to bet it goes below 7000 today? And what will it do tomorrow after BHO's speach tonight?



Sure...you wanna bet the sun doesnt set tonight or come up in the morning?

badbullgator
02-24-2009, 08:29 AM
Funny that while I was watching the news this morning one of the comments I heard several times was “seems to indicate that Wall Street does not think the stimulus does enough”. IMHO the real issue is not that it does not do enough, it is more that it is jus the entirely wrong thing to do and most people feel it, the stimulus, will do more harm in the long run and is sending us down the entirely wrong road.

thunderdan
02-24-2009, 08:39 AM
I agree, and some of these reporters are so clueless it hurts. This plan has multi - generation impact.

road kill
02-24-2009, 08:45 AM
The "Porkulus" package is just a giant spending agenda.
Every time Obama speaks, generally stateing how bad everything is (and "it ain't my fault"), the market goes down.

The real issue for small business is CREDIT!!

We can't get none!!

If you have a business, have you ever borrowed against accounts recievable?
How is that working for you right now?

Patrick Johndrow
02-25-2009, 12:01 PM
The chosen one speaks and the market drops another 1.70%....he is bring change and hope.

Franco
02-25-2009, 01:15 PM
One CAN NOT look at the stock market in the same way we looked at it in the past. It is no longer a value driven investment. We all learned that with the Tech Crash of 3/2000. The investment public has lost confidence in the market/brokers and many will never return. This IMO is not a cyclical thang but a bust of an over-valued corrupt market. It may take more than a decade to sort out the crooks/idiots and a return to reliable information. Till then, I would hold on to your cash as no return is better than a negative return!

badbullgator
02-25-2009, 02:29 PM
The chosen one speaks and the market drops another 1.70%....he is bring change and hope.


Hey what is another percent or two..... down 1.77 now

Patrick Johndrow
02-26-2009, 08:30 PM
Change and Hope....kind reminds me of the Franks and Beans retard on Something About Mary.

Dow 7,182.08 -88.81 (-1.22% )



CHANGE AND HOPE....

Franco
02-26-2009, 08:47 PM
Patrick, don't worry, the Dems have only spent 4 TRILLION dollars so far. It's all Nationalize now, health care, education, automotive industry, labor unions, banks so I'm sure the stock market will be soon. Then our Nationalize Stock Market can go up 4,000 points.

Rumor going around that once we Nationalize Wal-Mart, we are going to give it to the Chinesse to make an annual interest payment. Of course we pulled a fast one on the Chinesse because those living in America (can't call then all Americans caue some are illegal), can't afford the Made In China goods that Wal-Mart sells.

Patrick Johndrow
02-26-2009, 09:01 PM
Patrick, don't worry, the Dems have only spent 4 TRILLION dollars so far. It's all Nationalize now, health care, education, automotive industry, labor unions, banks so I'm sure the stock market will be soon. Then our Nationalize Stock Market can go up 4,000 points.

Rumor going around that once we Nationalize Wal-Mart, we are going to give it to the Chinesse to make an annual interest payment. Of course we pulled a fast one on the Chinesse because those living in America (can't call then all Americans caue some are illegal), can't afford the Made In China goods that Wal-Mart sells.


Thank you for explaining to me...it appeared to me that Obama "the Community Organgrinder" was F'ing things up.

Can you send me the math of how this dealio works?

Franco
02-26-2009, 09:13 PM
Can you send me the math of how this dealio works?



Sure. We borrow and continue to spend like drunken sailors. We print billions of new dollars and get them in circulation. Forget that the more we print, the less we can purchase with them. Then we go to the coutries that are so deeply buried in our economy that we lean on them for dough. Some of those countries are in a load of crap themselves so, now they are looking at us much closer and question our credit worthiness. Note that many of these countries have been socailist much longer than us and that we are the newcomers. So what, we just print more and hope we don't live long enough to see the consequences. OUR government, kind of doing what some Wall St crooks were doing except it's OK cause we voted these guys in. They'll fiddle while we burn! Throwing money at a problem is running from our economic problems, not solving them.

Anybody can spend money. It takes leadership to find other alternatives.

Patrick Johndrow
02-27-2009, 07:54 AM
So when will interest rates go to the moon?

thunderdan
02-27-2009, 08:08 AM
I am going to be very interested to see what the market does today, a Friday none the less. The futures this AM are down?

badbullgator
02-27-2009, 08:19 AM
I am going to be very interested to see what the market does today, a Friday none the less. The futures this AM are down?


It is Frday, what is the worst that could happen??? Only lost 88 points yesterday.... But remember Bernackie (or however you spell his name) says we will pull out of this by the end of the year. Problem is when the market goes down about 1-2% a day I don't think it is going to make it to the end of the year

WindyCreek
02-27-2009, 08:48 AM
"Change", wonder if this is the change he had in mind all along?

thunderdan
02-27-2009, 08:58 AM
It is Frday, what is the worst that could happen??? Only lost 88 points yesterday.... But remember Bernackie (or however you spell his name) says we will pull out of this by the end of the year. Problem is when the market goes down about 1-2% a day I don't think it is going to make it to the end of the year


I think we have the potential, I hope not, to see a closing in the 7000 range.

Yeah, pull out by the end of the year. If the end of the year is year 2012. I actually think we may see sub 7000 today.

kjrice
02-27-2009, 10:04 AM
It is Frday, what is the worst that could happen??? Only lost 88 points yesterday.... But remember Bernackie (or however you spell his name) says we will pull out of this by the end of the year. Problem is when the market goes down about 1-2% a day I don't think it is going to make it to the end of the year
Well timed "hope" statements and media spots were used to try to keep the market at 8k+; the same is happening at the 7K line. Soon it will be the 6K line.

Mike Noel
02-27-2009, 10:27 AM
So when will interest rates go to the moon?

As soon as the Chinese decide they want higher rates from us.

mjh345
02-27-2009, 10:58 AM
I think we have the potential, I hope not, to see a closing in the 7000 range.

.

WOW!! You really went out on a limb here didn't you Dan?

thunderdan
02-27-2009, 11:46 AM
Yeah, guess I really laid them out there....

There are many, many that believe that we are at a bottom. I do not.

I guess I should have been more clear, I meant the we have the potential to see sub 7000 or close right at 7000(7000-7010).

Uncle Bill
02-27-2009, 05:54 PM
Sure. We borrow and continue to spend like drunken sailors. We print billions of new dollars and get them in circulation. Forget that the more we print, the less we can purchase with them. Then we go to the coutries that are so deeply buried in our economy that we lean on them for dough. Some of those countries are in a load of crap themselves so, now they are looking at us much closer and question our credit worthiness. Note that many of these countries have been socailist much longer than us and that we are the newcomers. So what, we just print more and hope we don't live long enough to see the consequences. OUR government, kind of doing what some Wall St crooks were doing except it's OK cause we voted these guys in. They'll fiddle while we burn! Throwing money at a problem is running from our economic problems, not solving them.

Anybody can spend money. It takes leadership to find other alternatives.


WOW, Mr. Bootay...you and Mr. Saxena are really picking on our "Military on the Seas". Heh heh heh heh

This dude pretty much tells it like it is. Read and weep. UB

Various central banks continue to steer this economy like drunken sailors and they are injecting TRILLIONS of dollars into the system. I would argue that many nations in the West are already bankrupt (US, Britain, Germany, Spain, Iceland and Ireland come to mind) and the ONLY thing they can do now is to print even more money. For example, America's total debt is worth US$54 trillion and there is no way the US can ever hope of repaying its debt in today's money. In other words, either the US will default (highly unlikely in my view) or it will print and inflate so that this huge mountain of debt feels much smaller in the future due to the loss of its purchasing power. Remember, the best way to make debt more manageable is by inflating the supply of money in the system. And this is precisely what the various central banks are doing.

It is worth noting that nations like Germany and the United States have already started using the printing press and more nations will soon follow. When the entire planet is covered with oceans of paper "money", its purchasing power will sink and hard assets will sky-rocket. At least this is what has happened throughout history. So, please don't be fooled by this temporary contraction in hard assets and hold on to your positions. If anything, take advantage of the ongoing fire-sale and if your financial situation permits, convert more cash to quality assets in the resources sector.

A bunch of turkeys have hijacked our monetary system and all they know is how to print money. Rather than let the market clear itself out, central banks continue to use taxpayers' money to bail out insolvent institutions. This brilliant strategy has NEVER worked in the past and it will not work this time around. Instead of robbing innocent people of their savings, the establishment must allow the weak banks to go bust. For example, if Citibank is on the verge of collapse, then the US Treasury must let it go bust! All Mr. Geithner needs to do is to protect the customers of Citibank, allow Citibank's investors (shareholders and bondholders) to suffer and sell the bank's book to another institution. This is all that needs to happen. This way, depositors will not lose anything and only investors in Citibank will suffer - and they should! Why should the public share the losses with these investors? When Citibank did well in the past, did its shareholders and bondholders distribute the profits to the public? Of course not! So, why should the reverse occur now?!

Personally, I find these bailouts absurd, unethical and a total waste of valuable resources! Who gave these politicians the authority to act like investment bankers? Mr. Geithner is not a qualified 'merger & acquisition' expert, so how does he have the audacity to use other people's money to take over insolvent banks? Likewise, Mr. Bernanke is now using American taxpayers' money and buying distressed debt! I find this outrageous! Is he going to act like a debt collector when people default on their loans?

Mark my words - the establishment is only making matters worse and prolonging the pain. Moreover, by printing insane amounts of paper, the politicians are setting everyone up for an inflationary nightmare! One thing is for sure - before this drama ends, the viability of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency will come under question. When the U.S. dollar starts to implode, hard assets will go through the roof. Remember, commodity prices went ballistic in the late 1930s as well as during the 1970s. We should expect similar action in the years ahead.

Regards,

Puru Saxena
for The Daily Reckoning

Uncle Bill
02-27-2009, 06:41 PM
Yeah, guess I really laid them out there....

There are many, many that believe that we are at a bottom. I do not.

I guess I should have been more clear, I meant the we have the potential to see sub 7000 or close right at 7000(7000-7010).


I'm certainly not wanting to burst your bubble, TD, but why the urgency to jump back in? Who are you getting your advice from? I've been reading some of the more deft 'risk-takers', and not even they are thinking of doing much more than sitting by the sidelines and watching.

For you and others this may be worthwhile info...BUT it's again, only 'another' view, so take it for what it's worth. UB

Oh...we are such optimists!

So far, the Crash of '09 has paralleled the Crash of '29...and the Crash of 1873.

All three began in early September. All three saw the big selling in late October. Both in the case of '29 and '09 a near-term bottom was hit in mid-November.

"Moreover, the percentage declines," writes Dominic Frisby at MoneyMorning, "were virtually identical. An initial decline from the high to a late October low of about 40%, then a rebound of about 15%, followed by a final low in late November - down about another 22%. The parallels are uncanny.

"The worrying thing...it is not unreasonable to expect the eventual low to come no earlier than 2010-11."

After the initial lows were hit in the Crash of 1873, a rebound continued until May of the following year. After the Crash of '29, the rebound continued until late April of the following year. In the case of the 1873 sell-off, the final low was not hit until four years later, and in the case of the '29, the final low was hit in 1932, with stocks 90% below their peaks.

This time the rebound following the November low only recovered 15% of the losses...then, stocks headed down again...and have just now slipped to a new low. If the pattern of the previous two major crashes continues; the final low won't come for a couple years.

Unless we have a Japan-style slump...in which case, it will take much, much longer. Everything keeps falling in the land of the rising sun. Exports have fallen 45%. And stocks are now at a 26-year low. If we follow that pattern, the eventual low in the Dow may not come until 2019...when stocks will be back to 1994 levels.

And just look at what has already happened to some of America's leading companies. Citigroup is down 90% from its high. You can buy a share for just $2. But be careful. A government takeover could wipe out the shareholders. The Bank of America has lost 90% of its value. GM is only worth about 3% of what it once was.

JP Morgan cut its dividend by 87%...to just 5 cents a share. Overall, dividends are being cut by a record amount.

Yesterday, the Dow fell again. We have been estimating that it would fall to between 3,000-5,000. But we are eternal optimists. Always looking on the bright side - every glass has a silver lining...and every cloud is half-full! But if the stock market repeats the experience of '29, it will fall below 2,000.

Frisby reminds us that Bob Prechter has been right about deflation, but wrong about how gold would react to it. Prechter assumed that the price of gold would fall along with everything else. Instead, gold resisted the general downtrend and now seems to be moving in the opposite direction. How come?

We explained it yesterday. Investors aren't buying gold as a protection against inflation; they're buying it to protect themselves against deflation. Markets are always trying to figure out what things are worth. At times like this, it becomes obvious that they're not worth nearly as much as people thought. One company doesn't have enough sales to pay its overhead. Another can't make its debt payments. One counterparty fails. Another was counting on that counterparty to pay a third.

When investors buy a stock...they wonder: does this company have unseen liabilities...hidden losses? How will it survive the financial crisis? Will it flourish in the post-bubble economy?

Even if the company is solid...what about the firms that owe it money? What about the firm's assets? What about its bank account? What about the bank itself?

Question marks had been unwanted and unloved during the boom period. Everyone was so sure of everything. Every sentence was declaratory - stating a fact: 'Stocks always go up in the long run.' 'You can't go wrong in housing.' 'America has the world's most dynamic and flexible financial system, where risks are spread thanks to the use of derivative instruments.'

Now, suddenly, question marks are in demand. People are pulling them out of closets and desk drawers; there's hardly a sentence that doesn't seem to need one. Every one of them is an interrogatory: 'When will this bear market end?' 'What do you mean you can't pay me?' 'Are you doing any hiring?'

Investors buy gold because they want something that doesn't have a question mark behind it. Does the yellow metal depend on its lenders? No. Are its earnings at risk? No. Does it have any toxic assets? No.

Gold is what it is...and nothing more. Useless most of the time; occasionally indispensable.

Bill Bonner
Daily Reckoning

mjh345
02-27-2009, 08:22 PM
Me thinks the low will be WAY WAY south of 7000!!
Besides the fundamental weaknesses in the economy that have been covered up[therefore delaying the eventual repurcussiions inherent therein] by the sub-prime fiasco; we are going to have to come to grips with the fact that those who do have capital to invest are going to be leery of investing in this stock market.
Prudent investors will be turned off by all the good old boy bonusses passed around like cotton candy amongst firms whose performance was shall we say less than big bonus worthy.

Confidence in the integrity of the markets; once shaken will take a long time to recover.
I for one have been less than impressed by the FTC's & the Justice Dept's etc. efforts to restore trust and integrity to the markets.

The regulators and enforcers have been asleep at the switch [or on the take] for far too long IMHO

thunderdan
02-28-2009, 06:26 PM
I agree MJH, I thought the market would close lower(that 7000-7010 mark) than they did on Friday, although the SP got hammered.

No bubble UB, and thanks for the copy of that article.

I guess I am not in any real rush, but would like the opportunity to get my 38 percent back.lol I busted my azz for that 38 percent and unfortunately I put my trust in an advisor who was not reactive to the indicators and to a market/system that was/is being manipulated.

I know people have lost faith in the markets and many will not return ever. I am not sure if I am one of those investors or not.

I did sell 90 percent of my equities and are sitting in cash in a MM account. I am waiting for the dip in the price of gold and other precious metals to add to my position and that is what I am investing in.

I can not imagine the dow at 2000, but it is a very real possibility.

There are many financial gurus who think that if history repeat itself, and using the time period that we are most closely resembling, the market of 1929/30. The market dropped 50 percent, hung around there for a bit and then lost another 60 percent of its value. That would put us at that 2800 mark.

Scary. I do not know if I will ever see the market at the levels we were at(14000) and I am 39 years old.

Patrick Johndrow
03-02-2009, 12:30 PM
Dow 6,830.36 -232.57 (-3.29% ) at 11:30 AM Central time


I guess people with money dont think most companies will have future profits....well that is what this information is telling me...maybe one of the liberals can explain how higher taxes and gooberment spending and a falling DOW is good for the country.

Franco
03-02-2009, 12:37 PM
I agree Patrick. Investment managers see the disaster of spending TRILLIONS on social pork programs and other useless programs. The USA should be working on saving the value of the dollar and not destroying it as the Dems have choosen to do.

What this current administration is doing is making it worse, not better!

Obomo's programs will make it too difficult for those companies to make a profit and that is what the market sees! It is a policy of prop up the bad at the expense of the good.

road kill
03-02-2009, 02:22 PM
Dow 6,830.36 -232.57 (-3.29% ) at 11:30 AM Central time


I guess people with money dont think most companies will have future profits....well that is what this information is telling me...maybe one of the liberals can explain how higher taxes and gooberment spending and a falling DOW is good for the country.
That would be dependent on what your goal is!!:cool:

Patrick Johndrow
03-02-2009, 02:43 PM
That would be dependent on what your goal is!!:cool:

I guess if your goal is to destroy the United States you are succeeding….but you’re not going to do that…we are going to shake liberals off like a bad case of fleas ;)

badbullgator
03-02-2009, 03:24 PM
Wow down 266 and counting. Will we see 6000 by weeks end?

badbullgator
03-02-2009, 04:07 PM
4 pm and down 299.87...maybe that 6000 mark comes by mid week?????

T. Mac
03-02-2009, 05:41 PM
And the second shoe hasn't fallen yet. California unemployment is now over 10% with some locales over 40%. But the governement and school layoffs won't hit until June/July. Reports are that the local school districts will be laying off thousands of people, and the local city/county governments will be laying off 100s more. State wide this has got to add up to several hundred thousand people about to lose their jobs by July. And this doesn't even begin to take into consideration the trickle down to the retail and service industries.

Signs are it is going to get much worse before it starts to look better.

T. Mac

Patrick Johndrow
03-02-2009, 06:13 PM
Dow 7,365.66


Ok...I know this is a dumb question...the Dow can only go to ZERO...Right?


When I asked this initially it was a joke...but now...does anyone know the answer? They can't like....send an invoice can they? :)



7365...those were the good ole days...we need almost a 10% increase to see those numbers again

Mike W.
03-02-2009, 07:47 PM
600/605 on the S&P is where we are headed boys. S&P breaking down below 737/740 confirmed a multi-year double top and a new phase in the bear market.

badbullgator
03-02-2009, 07:59 PM
But if you ask BP this is good and BHO's plan is working:rolleyes:

You can tell that Wallstreet is getting stronger based on hope and change

Patrick Johndrow
03-02-2009, 08:23 PM
You can tell that Wallstreet is getting stronger based on hope and change



I figured out what they now mean by HOPE and CHANGE...today one of my buddies said while waching the market tumble...

"I HOPE I don't crap my pants...I will have to CHANGE my pants."

Raymond Little
03-02-2009, 09:16 PM
And the second shoe hasn't fallen yet. California unemployment is now over 10% with some locales over 40%. But the governement and school layoffs won't hit until June/July. Reports are that the local school districts will be laying off thousands of people, and the local city/county governments will be laying off 100s more. State wide this has got to add up to several hundred thousand people about to lose their jobs by July. And this doesn't even begin to take into consideration the trickle down to the retail and service industries.

Signs are it is going to get much worse before it starts to look better.

T. Mac
Don't you know there is no such thing as "TRICKLE DOWN".

YES WE CAN'T REGARDS

Richard Halstead
03-03-2009, 12:30 AM
My 401K just turned into the 200.5K.

Patrick Johndrow
03-03-2009, 07:42 AM
My 401K just turned into the 200.5K.

I think it is more like a 100.25 :(

K G
03-03-2009, 08:43 AM
It is readily apparent that the BHO administration has no CLUE how to get the economy going in the right direction. They do, however, know how to get the Palestinian economy going.....

And why are there so many open positions in the BHO administration? Were they THAT ill-prepared to take office? With the mantra of "change" leading their charge, WHY weren't they prepared to "change" people? Wouldn't using the former people until they had someone to take the positions be better than NO ONE in the chair?

People were convinced with McCain, things would get worse...that's why they voted for BHO...now they KNOW how it can get worse.....what a joke.....:rolleyes:

Bunch of sheeple regards,

kg

road kill
03-03-2009, 08:49 AM
We are not in a campaign any more.
Obama is the leader of the free world.
He is leading us all down a path to disaster, if we are not already there.
His policies are destabilizing the American, and as a result, the world economy.
He can not buy his way out of this mess.
Maybe he did not start it, but he has done nothing to stop or fix it!!

This ain't Chicago!!

badbullgator
03-03-2009, 09:07 AM
We are not in a campaign any more.
Obama is the leader of the free world.
He is leading us all down a path to disaster, if we are not already there.
His policies are destabilizing the American, and as a result, the world economy.
He can not buy his way out of this mess.
Maybe he did not start it, but he has done nothing to stop or fix it!!

This ain't Chicago!!


Sure he can, just keep borrowing money and printing more of it:D

Patrick Johndrow
03-05-2009, 10:14 PM
A new 12 year low...... CHANGE AND HOPE...CHANGE AND HOPE!!!

Dow 6,594.44 -281.40 (-4.09%)

Franco
03-05-2009, 10:35 PM
Tax payer money will be wasted and the big money investors know it. We could lose over a TRILLION dollars to companies that we bailout and still fail ie AIG, GM, Chrysler, several very large banks. When they eventually go belly up, we'll never see our money back! Between Wall St and the banks, we are screwed. It just doesn't make sense to keep throwing money at the problems! Until the economy stands on its own, the stock market will be dismal at best. The only way the economy can stand on its own is to have solid footing. That is why we need to let the failures burn, allow investors take thier licks so that we can get on the REAL ROAD to economic growth.

The crazy spending and the radical shift to a more socialist economy with huge government intervention is doom for the stock market and the health and wealth of the U S of A.

Mike W.
03-05-2009, 11:27 PM
I'm telling you guys....600/605 is where the S&P is going.

Mark it down. We are buyers there.

Raymond Little
03-06-2009, 11:07 AM
NamePriceChange%CHGYTDDJIA (http://www.foxbusiness.com/research.html?searchString=$i.dji)6,549.76-44.68

road kill
03-06-2009, 01:04 PM
Today is a VERY GOOD day for the market!!

It's only down 45 points so far!!:shock:

badbullgator
03-06-2009, 01:16 PM
Well actually now 67 points but that is now over 1%.......

Richard Halstead
03-06-2009, 01:30 PM
On Thursday 3/04 some pharmaceuticals were up when every thing was down, could it be things are starting to turn.

badbullgator
03-06-2009, 01:40 PM
On Thursday 3/04 some pharmaceuticals were up when every thing was down, could it be things are starting to turn.


I don't know, but I know that as of noon today it is FALLING and it can't get up.....close to -80 now

badbullgator
03-06-2009, 01:44 PM
I don't know, but I know that as of noon today it is FALLING and it can't get up.....close to -80 now


Crap did I say down close to 80??? It was down 90 before I checked back. We are looking at 6300-6400 at days end. Next week sub 6000;-) Get out if your not already

Patrick Johndrow
03-06-2009, 01:48 PM
Everytime nObama opens his damned mouth the market goes down 100 points...maybe someone should point his fact out to him

Steve Amrein
03-06-2009, 03:36 PM
I thought about pulling out at 10,000 and the at 8,000 and again at 7,000 when it still seams the bottom is not in site If it goes below 5,000 I am cashing out and spending the rest on guns , ammo and MRE,s and 3 mason jars to bury the change left of my so called retirement. Maybe I should get some crackers to go with the welfare cheese. If it gets down to 5 it can get down to zero.

badbullgator
03-09-2009, 08:10 AM
Look for a tough day in the market today. Every other market is down


FTSE (London) (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/research/msnbc/newsnap.asp?Symbol=$GB:UKX) 3480.06 -50.67http://www.msnbc.msn.com/images/msnbc/pfp/arrowDown.gif -1.44%

DAX (Frankfurt) (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/research/msnbc/newsnap.asp?Symbol=$DE:DAX) 3625.39 -41.02http://www.msnbc.msn.com/images/msnbc/pfp/arrowDown.gif -1.12%

Nikkei 225 (Tokyo) (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/research/msnbc/newsnap.asp?Symbol=$JP:NI225) 7086.03 -87.07http://www.msnbc.msn.com/images/msnbc/pfp/arrowDown.gif -1.21%

Marvin S
03-09-2009, 09:21 AM
RGR - aka known as Sturm, Ruger & Co. - they make firearms, that's so the lefty's know what is being discussed.

Up from $6.48 closing 2 weeks ago to $10.36 closing this last Friday. Who says you can't make money in BO's market? Not quite 60%. :D

badbullgator
03-09-2009, 10:55 AM
Marvin
I wonder how much of that is real and how much of that is demand form people buying it becasue of all the email going around about it being a good investment.
Of course guns and ammo are hot right now as is defence contractors stock

Marvin S
03-09-2009, 11:42 AM
Corey - Didn't see that e-mail - just found it odd when everything is in the tank of sorts that this stock takes off. We own the stock because they make a good product, stand behind their products & hopefully will get back to paying that dividend that was disconinued.

Regardless, I have great faith in the entrepreneurial class & little faith in government's ability to accomplish anything businesswise. While the R's are somewhat better for business, their brand has been watered down by the election of too many who are lefty's in disguise.

What we are seeing presently is the weeding out of companies that could only make it in good times. Though I would be hesitant to own any company making middle class toys - the home equity is going to be harder to tap - & those with equity don't tap it anyway except for something sensible.

But, when the turn comes, & who's going to call it with any accuracy?, anyone not on the wagon will get left standing on the wayside.

Still buying selectively, Giants to win, regards.

Marvin S
03-09-2009, 02:32 PM
The Oracle of Omaha will be on CNBC at 5 Eastern tonight. If you're in the market it should be interesting. :)

Richard Halstead
03-09-2009, 09:01 PM
The Oracle of Omaha will be on CNBC at 5 Eastern tonight. If you're in the market it should be interesting. :)


The Billionare Next Door says at these prices some stocks look very good for a long time hold-say twenty years.

Mike W.
03-09-2009, 09:46 PM
Long energy/Short S&P 500

Been working.

S&P should be allowed for a corrective bounce, but the next test will be 650/55. Might hold at first, but this bitch is gonna go to 600/505.

(S&P Closed at 676)

Mike W.
03-09-2009, 09:46 PM
Long crude, short the market, and cash.

Only positions to be in besides the fetal.

Richard Halstead
03-09-2009, 10:02 PM
Bank of America up 19.42%

Patrick Johndrow
03-09-2009, 11:44 PM
The Oracle of Omaha will be on CNBC at 5 Eastern tonight. If you're in the market it should be interesting. :)

Oh I am into the market...not as much as I use to be in the market...but could care less what the little creepy dude has to say :)

cotts135
03-10-2009, 07:49 AM
I found this story about how the stock market works interesting. It is a long article but goes into detail about how hedge fund managers, financial reporters, network stock shows all have played a role in where we are today. I am sure this guy did not make any friends on Wall Street when he published this article. Many of you will recognize the people he mentions.

http://www.deepcapture.com/the-story-of-deep-capture-by-mark-mitchell/

A shorter synopsis is available here:http://www.deepcapture.com/category/introduction-an-overview-of-deep-capture/

road kill
03-10-2009, 08:28 AM
Tax FREE Municipal Bonds!!

Richard Halstead
03-10-2009, 02:20 PM
on 3/3/09 ioptned asmall poaition in PFE which is up 147% and one in Cti at .99shareis up to 1.47 and GE at 7.50 on 3/9 up to 8.88

Jim Pickering
03-10-2009, 04:32 PM
Everytime nObama opens his damned mouth the market goes down 100 points...maybe someone should point his fact out to him

So what happened today? Did Obama not say anything or did he announce his resignation?

K G
03-10-2009, 04:39 PM
Citibank announced they were off of life support....for today....

kg

Marvin S
03-10-2009, 07:24 PM
So what happened today? Did Obama not say anything or did he announce his resignation?

What Keith said + there is talk of reinstating the uptick rule. Bearish sentiment at an all-time high. Number of daily lows decreasing.

brlcon1
03-10-2009, 10:27 PM
I hope you're right Marvin , but I think today was just a beginning of a bear market rally .
Would like to be wrong as I have no where to go but up ! Nice buys Richard , care to tell us what you're going to buy tommorrow , today .

Richard Halstead
03-11-2009, 09:27 PM
Already cashed the PFE gain and GE letting Citi ride. kind of dumb luck.

Richard Halstead
03-12-2009, 11:55 AM
Already cashed the PFE gain and GE letting Citi ride. kind of dumb luck.


<Looks like I cashed in too early. Just bought 100 shares of INTC. As far as cashing in early No Guts-No Glory

I am going to buy PFE again after the weekend and this will be bought for potential gain plus the 10% dividend that I enroll in a dividend reinvestment

Uncle Bill
03-12-2009, 04:31 PM
<Looks like I cashed in too early. Just bought 100 shares of INTC. As far as cashing in early No Guts-No Glory

I am going to buy PFE again after the weekend and this will be bought for potential gain plus the 10% dividend that I enroll in a dividend reinvestment


Wow, Richard. Bet your broker luvs ya eh?:D:D

Let us know how well this system turns out for you.

UB

Franco
03-12-2009, 06:04 PM
Today's trading could be a sucker punch.

Make people feel like it has bottomed out and get them to buy. Market goes up a couple of hundred points. Then, another several 100 point drop with sellers making profits from those that just invested.

Remember who is in charge.

Richard Halstead
03-12-2009, 06:47 PM
The so called sucker punch cost me the 13% gain in GE today. Bill my brocker is me on E*Trade I think I might be the fool of the client. I was going to buy 200 more of GE and the news of the rating change from AAA was'nt as bad as feared and my bid price was one cent below the ask as it rocketed up.

Fear of the 500 bottom caused me to take some and sell. If history falls true this should act like a bear market and retest the lows. I think Friday some will take their profits.

Booty today Long investments were 3:1 over the Shorts.

Franco
03-12-2009, 07:32 PM
And shorting is illegal. Look for that practice to get get much closer scrutiny as some feel is is a big part of the problem.

brlcon1
03-12-2009, 07:33 PM
Richard , don't beat yourself up for taking a profit in this market . Remember , hogs get slaughtered ! You can always use maket stops as a protection against a big drop . I still think you made some good buys and sells !!

Bruce

Richard Halstead
03-16-2009, 01:49 PM
Citi is up over 40% today to 2.49 from the 0.91 share low and BAC Bank of America up to 6.90 from it's low of about 2.10 GE is up to 10.31 from the 7.55 open 3/3/09.

Richard Halstead
03-23-2009, 05:04 PM
Intel is up 19.7% since the 3/02 low not sure if they will retest that low, but for now I will keep going.

Patrick Johndrow
03-23-2009, 05:21 PM
I wouldn't get to excited yet....prolly just a dead cat bounce.

Franco
03-23-2009, 08:39 PM
I wouldn't get to excited yet....prolly just a dead cat bounce.



The big money mangers know how to play the game. They make it look like the worse is behind us, get us common folks to feeling better. They start buying stock with a small percentage of thier credit/cash. Prices go up a little more, people buy, then the huge money mangers/investors sell taking their profits at the expense of the smaller investors.

Patrick Johndrow
03-23-2009, 09:29 PM
The big money mangers know how to play the game. They make it look like the worse is behind us, get us common folks to feeling better. They start buying stock with a small percentage of thier credit/cash. Prices go up a little more, people buy, then the huge money mangers/investors sell taking their profits at the expense of the smaller investors.

That is why I think this is just a dead cat bounce...get excited...get back in just in time to get run over AGAIN

Beware the Bear in Bull clothing. ;)

kjrice
03-24-2009, 11:57 AM
That is why I think this is just a dead cat bounce...get excited...get back in just in time to get run over AGAIN

Beware the Bear in Bull clothing. ;)
Nailed it!

YardleyLabs
03-26-2009, 04:58 PM
After watching the market close today, I decided to crunch a few numbers out of interest comparing the market under Bush and Obama. I used yesterday's close so the results do not reflect today's gain for Obama or the similar gain under Bush.

From inauguration to March 25:

Bush: DOW lost 925 points or 8.7%
Obama: DOW lost 199 points or 2.5%

From election (say Nov 1) to March 25

Bush: DOW lost 1130 points or 10.4%
Obama: DOW lost 1576 points or 16.9%

From Inauguration to end of presidency (Bush)

Bush (8 years): DOW lost 2839 points or 26.9%
Obama: Jury still out.

Franco
03-26-2009, 05:27 PM
rom inauguration to March 25:

Bush: DOW lost 925 points or 8.7%
Obama: DOW lost 199 points or 2.5%

From election (say Nov 1) to March 25

Bush: DOW lost 1130 points or 10.4%
Obama: DOW lost 1576 points or 16.9%

From Inauguration to end of presidency (Bush)

Bush (8 years): DOW lost 2839 points or 26.9%
Obama: Jury still out.

One can blame Bush for many failures but not the market in 2,000. The Tech Crash of 2,000 was about over-valued tech stocks. Though most of the Tech stocks were on NASDQ, it had a big impact on the NYSE. The selling began in March 2,000 and lasted the rest of the year.

YardleyLabs
03-26-2009, 05:45 PM
One can blame Bush for many failures but not the market in 2,000. The Tech Crash of 2,000 was about over-valued tech stocks. Though most of the Tech stocks were on NASDQ, it had a big impact on the NYSE. The selling began in March 2,000 and lasted the rest of the year.

I actually didn't blame him for anything. I don't believe that Bush was responsible for the Clinton recession that he inherited any more than Obama is responsible for the Bush recession that he inherited.

Cody Covey
03-26-2009, 06:31 PM
From inauguration to March 25:

Bush: DOW lost 925 points or 8.7%
Obama: DOW lost 199 points or 2.5%

[
numbers are a bit off there aren't they jeff?

YardleyLabs
03-26-2009, 06:48 PM
numbers are a bit off there aren't they jeff?
Not according to Yahoo. Did I make a mistake (it's always possible)? When I just went back and checked, I actually credited Bush with the large rise in the DOW on 3/26 but did not credit Obama with the large rise today. The actual numbers look a lot better for Obama with a loss of only 24 points, or 0.3%. If you're surprised, so was I.

Richard Halstead
03-26-2009, 07:33 PM
That is why I think this is just a dead cat bounce...get excited...get back in just in time to get run over AGAIN

Beware the Bear in Bull clothing. ;)

lions, tigers and BEARS, OH MY (Dorothy in Wizard of Oz)

Cash held pre recesion has the same purchasing power as those made during
the DEAD CAT bounce.

sinner
03-27-2009, 01:42 PM
Some people are like Slinkies.. Not really good for anything..
But they still bring a smile to your face when you think about pushing them down a flight of stairs

Patrick Johndrow
03-30-2009, 02:45 PM
Cash held pre recesion has the same purchasing power as those made during
the DEAD CAT bounce.

Yep...cash invested in an NObama economy is lost cash...hope he gets stopped before he devalues the cash as well.

Richard Halstead
03-30-2009, 03:14 PM
Edging out the CEO the Obama Administration prime example of a cluster F#*k.

Franco
03-30-2009, 03:39 PM
Edging out the CEO the Obama Administration prime example of a cluster F#*k.

Edging, must be a new word for "firing".

No concessions from the UAW since they were such big contributors to his campaign. Anyone want to guess where the new member to the Board Of Directors is coming from?

badbullgator
03-30-2009, 03:41 PM
ummmmmm....china?

Uncle Bill
03-30-2009, 05:45 PM
Any room for a simple reminder here????

"The 1970s proved that the Fed cannot fix structural problems with the economy by showering it with new money. Hyper-depression is simply stagflation squared."


UB

Patrick Johndrow
03-30-2009, 09:31 PM
Edging out the CEO the Obama Administration prime example of a cluster F#*k.

The man has never even made a payroll...how and the F does he know what it takes to right anything?

How this carpet-bagging-fraud elected will be studied and pondered for generations.

Terry Britton
03-30-2009, 09:43 PM
Yep...cash invested in an NObama economy is lost cash...hope he gets stopped before he devalues the cash as well.

PUTS and SHORTS mean anything?

Gerry Clinchy
03-30-2009, 09:57 PM
No concessions from the UAW since they were such big contributors to his campaign. Anyone want to guess where the new member to the Board Of Directors is coming from?

The speech I heard on radio did mention asking the unions to make further concessions as well.

sinner
03-30-2009, 09:59 PM
Thank you Lush Rimbaugh & Friends
Newt!

Patrick Johndrow
03-30-2009, 10:01 PM
Thank you Lush Rimbaugh & Friends
Newt!

So you think the man is qualified to be making the judgments he is making?

For the record...I dont listen to talk radio.

Terry Britton
03-30-2009, 10:02 PM
That is why I think this is just a dead cat bounce...get excited...get back in just in time to get run over AGAIN

Beware the Bear in Bull clothing. ;)

MCD and Stochastic charts can show you when to get in and out without getting hurt. I have been sitting in my little dab of cash to pay for school. Hopefully some great opportunities will present themselves with the education as the economy turns around.

Patrick Johndrow
03-30-2009, 10:12 PM
MCD and Stochastic charts can show you when to get in and out without getting hurt. I have been sitting in my little dab of cash to pay for school. Hopefully some great opportunities will present themselves with the education as the economy turns around.


That's great Terry and one days when you will leave academia and come show us dumb old working stiff how this crap is really done….well be reading damned charts, making ethanol out of hay and singing praise the Nazi’s that have taken over the country until our eyes start spinning in their socket.

Terry Britton
03-30-2009, 11:58 PM
That's great Terry and one days when you will leave academia and come show us dumb old working stiff how this crap is really done….well be reading damned charts, making ethanol out of hay and singing praise the Nazi’s that have taken over the country until our eyes start spinning in their socket.

I think the best possibility for the ethanol is producing it out of coal. We have plenty of coal that can be gassified at the source. The syn gas can be transported to the high demand markets via pipelines, and then turned into ethanol at the strategically located bioreactors on the east and west coasts. ;)

Transportation costs from the middle of no where to population centers is a major economic issue with ethanol along with wind and solar power.

How are we going to take back our country from the Facist regime that is taking over the USA is an issue we will hopefully address in the next couple rounds of elections.

As for the market stuff, Phil Town's book, Rule #1, is an excelect book with the free tools to know when to jump in or out of a stock, ETF or Mutual fund. I will be utilizing it in my ROTH with both DIG and DUG as a mini self made hedge fund. The ETF's are safer now than individual stocks, and some of the ETF's are double shorts of their sister ETF which is the case of DUG compared to DIG. (or is it the other way around?)

Patrick Johndrow
03-31-2009, 12:35 PM
I think the best possibility for the ethanol is producing it out of coal. We have plenty of coal that can be gassified at the source. The syn gas can be transported to the high demand markets via pipelines, and then turned into ethanol at the strategically located bioreactors on the east and west coasts. ;)

Ok…Ethanol is the WORST fuel going...it is crap….there is a huge chasm in your logic...it is very Obamish like.

Terry Britton
03-31-2009, 03:48 PM
Ok…Ethanol is the WORST fuel going...it is crap….there is a huge chasm in your logic...it is very Obamish like.

Ethanol won't happen as a real solution due to transportation costs and other economic costs.

I think you mis-read my stance. After spending 1.5 semesters of attempting to make a business case, I can explain a lot of reasons why stuff that the general publics thinks is a good idea won't fly. If an alternative can really make $$$ under all conditions, it would be a major business rather than pilot programs.

So what is next? Mini-Nukes to power small cities?

Patrick Johndrow
03-31-2009, 04:12 PM
So what is next? Mini-Nukes to power small cities?

Hell I like the Pickens plan…don’t much care for T Boone but at least he is providing renewable solutions to our energy issues. We continue to look for a single replacement for fossil fuels and we continue to fail miserably. The money that was wasted in the pursuit of ethanol could help bring wind, solar and geothermal power to front for powering our homes. This isn’t radical stuff….30 years ago we had a wind turbine at our home and sold electricity back into the grid most of the time and I am sure the technology has grown by leaps and bounds since then.

Terry Britton
03-31-2009, 06:04 PM
Hell I like the Pickens plan…don’t much care for T Boone but at least he is providing renewable solutions to our energy issues. We continue to look for a single replacement for fossil fuels and we continue to fail miserably. The money that was wasted in the pursuit of ethanol could help bring wind, solar and geothermal power to front for powering our homes. This isn’t radical stuff….30 years ago we had a wind turbine at our home and sold electricity back into the grid most of the time and I am sure the technology has grown by leaps and bounds since then.

Wind, solar and geothermal have the same issues with economics as the ethanol does. Without subsidies, it is much cheaper to build gas or coal power plants. Wind and solar are located far away from the dense population areas needing power. Biomass is actually a more efective solar collector than solar panels.

Geothermal heatpumps will pay for themselves within a few years, but still need additional electricity to heat and cool a house.

Let's say you did put in a windmill to generate electricity to sell back to the grid. Will it produce enough to pay for the installation, maintanence and royalties over the life? Everyone tells me it won't. There is probably is enough public information online to determine if the business case is actually valid at todays energy prices. When you start looking at capital costs with cashflows over the life of a project, you will understand why no one has done much unless they have the cash to burn. One thing is for sure, the Picken's Plan will benefit us by hiring American, and keeping jobs in America.

We have some serious concerns in this country that need to be addressed with real viable solutions. The Pickens plan is a start.

Marvin S
03-31-2009, 06:21 PM
Hell I like the Pickens plan…don’t much care for T Boone but at least he is providing renewable solutions to our energy issues. We continue to look for a single replacement for fossil fuels and we continue to fail miserably. The money that was wasted in the pursuit of ethanol could help bring wind, solar and geothermal power to front for powering our homes. This isn’t radical stuff….30 years ago we had a wind turbine at our home and sold electricity back into the grid most of the time and I am sure the technology has grown by leaps and bounds since then.

When T Boone has a wind farm on his property he'll have more credibility - until then he's just someone who hopped into bed with Nancy Pelosi - or is it the other way around?

Patrick Johndrow
03-31-2009, 06:23 PM
Wind, solar and geothermal have the same issues with economics as the ethanol does. Without subsidies, it is much cheaper to build gas or coal power plants. Wind and solar are located far away from the dense population areas needing power. Biomass is actually a more efective solar collector than solar panels.



We need coal over the next 25 years or we won’t have electricity…what wind, solar and geothermal give you that ethanol doesn’t is they do not put pressure on other commodities or require energy inputs for its creation. Subsidies SHOULD be investments in our future not just short-term pillaging of the coffers.

I wish our politician would put half as much effort into our energy issues as we have here today.

Terry Britton
03-31-2009, 07:18 PM
We need coal over the next 25 years or we won’t have electricity…what wind, solar and geothermal give you that ethanol doesn’t is they do not put pressure on other commodities or require energy inputs for its creation. Subsidies SHOULD be investments in our future not just short-term pillaging of the coffers.

I wish our politician would put half as much effort into our energy issues as we have here today.

Wind and solar have storage issues. Until they are solved reasonably, they are going to have issues.

There is a consensus of engineers that have debated this topic over and over, and have came to the conclusion that mini-nukes are the most viable option with recycling of the nuclear material. Politics and the fear from the un-informed won't let them happen.

When you remove the emotional attachements to ideas, and start looking at the pure economics of each alternative without subsidies, the truth will emerge. The best enterance point for each alternative may differ at different fossil fuel costs.

Patrick Johndrow
03-31-2009, 07:36 PM
Wind and solar have storage issues. Until they are solved reasonably, they are going to have issues.


The solved the storage issues for cell phones…anyone remember the guys with the battery pack belts? so I am confident we can figure out the storage on a larger scale.

Terry Britton
03-31-2009, 07:56 PM
The solved the storage issues for cell phones…anyone remember the guys with the battery pack belts? so I am confident we can figure out the storage on a larger scale.

I hope so. I am scared of the future for my kids if solutions aren't developed.

YardleyLabs
10-12-2009, 12:26 PM
As of 12:20 today:

DOW - 9912
S&P - 1078

Anyone care to update their projections from this thread? (Corey had estimated DOW at 5000 for example).

road kill
10-12-2009, 12:30 PM
As of 12:20 today:

DOW - 9912
S&P - 1078

Anyone care to update their projections from this thread? (Corey had estimated DOW at 5000 for example).
If I could accurately predict the stock market, I wouldn't be sitting at this desk!!

just sayin'........

T. Mac
10-12-2009, 01:59 PM
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33270709/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/

Buzz
10-12-2009, 02:10 PM
If I could accurately predict the stock market, I wouldn't be sitting at this desk!!

just sayin'........

If I had the guts to follow through on my predictions, I'd be running a truck load of field trial dogs, not just two...:(

Marvin S
10-12-2009, 02:28 PM
As of 12:20 today:

DOW - 9912
S&P - 1078

Anyone care to update their projections from this thread? (Corey had estimated DOW at 5000 for example).

As I said on all the threads dealing with this subject - A buying opportunity probably never again equalled in anyone's lifetime. So, I put my money where my posts were.

Portfolio up 70% over the March low - in reality it is close to where it was at 14K Dow so I am :D.

Sold PPC for a 350% ST gain, a TBill for a 45% gain, & FBSprA for 28% ST gain. Don't like ST gains but circumstances warranted the move. Interestingly, with those sales, cash position is same as in March before I started adding to the portfolio.

I missed JWN, NXY, CEDC, & a couple of others when they took a temporary drop but not entirely unhappy with what I was able to pick up. Have ENS, a battery storage outfit, which has more than doubled over the buyin price. Gorged on BAC, tripling a position, which has more than trippled in value, that started with BKB. I can't wait for the dividends that will be forthcoming when they get their act together.

I'm still alert to more opportunity, & I'm sure it will be there. The Entrepeneurial spirit still lives in this country. It just don't live in DC. To say Obongo & his minions are a bigger disappointment than expected is an understatement. His appointments are even worse than Bush 43's.

TBS, Am anxiously awaiting the comments from JP, UB & Franco about what is happening.

dnf777
10-12-2009, 02:46 PM
My broker explained it this way: When Kmart or a car dealer has a sale, people flock to buy at the discounted price. When Wall Street has a sale, people run away! WallStreet has been having a clearance sale, with everything up to 50% off. I went shopping, but wish I'd bought more!

Buzz
10-12-2009, 03:05 PM
My broker explained it this way: When Kmart or a car dealer has a sale, people flock to buy at the discounted price. When Wall Street has a sale, people run away! WallStreet has been having a clearance sale, with everything up to 50% off. I went shopping, but wish I'd bought more!

I went shopping too, but I wish I had the guts to go all-in...

Franco
10-12-2009, 03:25 PM
Not me, I have my life savings in a Money Market account and Real Estate.

I wouldn't touch the stock market with a 100 foot pole.

Franco
10-12-2009, 03:27 PM
My broker explained it this way: When Kmart or a car dealer has a sale, people flock to buy at the discounted price. When Wall Street has a sale, people run away! WallStreet has been having a clearance sale, with everything up to 50% off. I went shopping, but wish I'd bought more!

Tell your broker that Kmart is out of business and Car Dealers have sales every week and they are still hurting to sell new vehicles.

Goose
10-12-2009, 03:45 PM
May 1, 1930..."While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover" - President Hoover.

June 29, 1930..."The worst is over without a doubt" - James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor

June 9, 1931..."The depression has ended" - Dr. Julius Klein, Assistant Secretary of Commerce.

DL
10-12-2009, 03:57 PM
I actually made some money on AIG and Freddie Mac. That was pure gambling. The part that I bought at rock bottom made all of the difference. If I hadn't bought at rock bottom I would have still been down. There is a post on here where I am asking whether or not Freddie Mac was a good buy at .25. I personally think the stock is worthless but it did go up to 2.50, which is 10x or 1,000 percent.

I have some picks that I was trying to buy low that are still down. Up for the year, but still down from where I bought them. Some may turn out to be value traps.

It is definitely a matter of timing, and if someone successfully timed the buttom they were simply lucky. That is not to say that someone that missed the bottom will not still come out ahead. I tried to time the bottom, but bought too early, and was tapped out when the bottom fell out.

I read something interesting recently that asked whether or not someone would place a bet of $100,000 on a coin toss where winning would net 10x that amount. It went on to say what happens if the bet is lowered with the same odds. I thought that was interesting but granted I go for some books that are easy reading.

Mike W.
10-12-2009, 03:58 PM
Not me, I have my life savings in a Money Market account and Real Estate.

I wouldn't touch the stock market with a 100 foot pole.

Boy, real estate sure has saved your ass ;)

As the stock market has gone up 60% from the March lows.

Franco
10-12-2009, 04:04 PM
Boy, real estate sure has saved your ass ;)

As the stock market has gone up 60% from the March lows.

I'm a long term investor and I will feel very badly for those caught owning stocks when the stock market tanks.

The Obama Economy is nothing more than Smoke and Mirrors. We can't borrow the money we've been borrowing and continue to print money and not have it catch up with us.

Mike W.
10-12-2009, 04:10 PM
The Obama Economy is nothing more than Smoke and Mirrors. We can't borrow the money we've been borrowing and continue to print money and not have it catch up with us.


I agree with you for the most part. But I'm not gonna sit here, pound my fist in the sand, and keep cursing him when I can't do anything about it. But I am gonna try to make money off the SOB, long or short, whatever it takes.

dnf777
10-12-2009, 04:23 PM
Tell your broker that Kmart is out of business and Car Dealers have sales every week and they are still hurting to sell new vehicles.

No thanks. I'm doing fine, as are Kmart and Taylor Ford.

Our economy has been smoke and mirrors ever since we lost our manufacturing base.

Terry Britton
10-12-2009, 04:58 PM
No thanks. I'm doing fine, as are Kmart and Taylor Ford.

Our economy has been smoke and mirrors ever since we lost our manufacturing base.

Smoke and mirrors may get worse if we move to IFRS instead of GAAP.

DL
10-12-2009, 05:46 PM
Smoke and mirrors may get worse if we move to IFRS instead of GAAP.

What does IFRS stand for? I don't know what it stands for, but if we moved to it wouldn't it become GAAP?