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badbullgator
06-18-2009, 09:00 AM
This will probably not come as a surprise to anyone (even Jeff, but I am sure he will argue it). Watching my local news last night is see a story about a local project that is funded by the porklus money. Now the project itself is a good one and I am not knocking that. It is a road project that will extend a heavily traveled road 2.5 or so miles to another road. This has been needed for some time because of the traffic in the area. Now the thing that amused me is this, the story said that this project will take about 2 years and, here is the good part, create 1700 jobs! Yes they said 1700 jobs will be created by this project. Now I have never been in road construction but I know it does not take 1700 people to build a 2.5 mile road. My guess is there are calculating this based on businesses building along this new stretch of road. You really can’t count the people building the road because I know a number of people in this type of work and they seem to be one of the construction types that are not having a problem with work. The problem with the 1700 jobs created by the assumption that businesses will open along the new road is that our area has seen a dramatic drop in our population since the building boom has vanished. You see businesses all over that have closed up. With less demand for things due to less population and businesses closing and very few opening where are these new businesses going to come from? 1700 jobs aint going to happen from this, no way, no how. The road will take at least 2 years to build so if the jobs are coming form new businesses along that road it will be at least 3 years before the first one opens. I am sure obongo and his bunch will tout this as 1700 more jobs created under his infinite wisdom, but it is nothing more than what we seem to always get form him…..smoke and mirrors.

YardleyLabs
06-18-2009, 09:04 AM
This will probably not come as a surprise to anyone (even Jeff, but I am sure he will argue it). Watching my local news last night is see a story about a local project that is funded by the porklus money. Now the project itself is a good one and I am not knocking that. It is a road project that will extend a heavily traveled road 2.5 or so miles to another road. This has been needed for some time because of the traffic in the area. Now the thing that amused me is this, the story said that this project will take about 2 years and, here is the good part, create 1700 jobs! Yes they said 1700 jobs will be created by this project. Now I have never been in road construction but I know it does not take 1700 people to build a 2.5 mile road. My guess is there are calculating this based on businesses building along this new stretch of road. You really can’t count the people building the road because I know a number of people in this type of work and they seem to be one of the construction types that are not having a problem with work. The problem with the 1700 jobs created by the assumption that businesses will open along the new road is that our area has seen a dramatic drop in our population since the building boom has vanished. You see businesses all over that have closed up. With less demand for things due to less population and businesses closing and very few opening where are these new businesses going to come from? 1700 jobs aint going to happen from this, no way, no how. The road will take at least 2 years to build so if the jobs are coming form new businesses along that road it will be at least 3 years before the first one opens. I am sure obongo and his bunch will tout this as 1700 more jobs created under his infinite wisdom, but it is nothing more than what we seem to always get form him…..smoke and mirrors.

Who is making the claim about the number of jobs: Obama or the local government agencies? How much does the project cost and how wide is the road? You should be able to pretty much calculate the number of jobs created based n the amount of money being spent.

badbullgator
06-18-2009, 09:11 AM
I am trying to find a link and/or that information. The job estimate was stated by two different stations, but I do not know who is making the estimates on the numbers


BTW- Jeff thanks.....I knew I could count on you......

Raymond Little
06-18-2009, 09:14 AM
This will probably not come as a surprise to anyone (even Jeff, but I am sure he will argue it). Watching my local news last night is see a story about a local project that is funded by the porklus money. Now the project itself is a good one and I am not knocking that. It is a road project that will extend a heavily traveled road 2.5 or so miles to another road. This has been needed for some time because of the traffic in the area. Now the thing that amused me is this, the story said that this project will take about 2 years and, here is the good part, create 1700 jobs! Yes they said 1700 jobs will be created by this project. Now I have never been in road construction but I know it does not take 1700 people to build a 2.5 mile road. My guess is there are calculating this based on businesses building along this new stretch of road. You really can’t count the people building the road because I know a number of people in this type of work and they seem to be one of the construction types that are not having a problem with work. The problem with the 1700 jobs created by the assumption that businesses will open along the new road is that our area has seen a dramatic drop in our population since the building boom has vanished. You see businesses all over that have closed up. With less demand for things due to less population and businesses closing and very few opening where are these new businesses going to come from? 1700 jobs aint going to happen from this, no way, no how. The road will take at least 2 years to build so if the jobs are coming form new businesses along that road it will be at least 3 years before the first one opens. I am sure obongo and his bunch will tout this as 1700 more jobs created under his infinite wisdom, but it is nothing more than what we seem to always get form him…..smoke and mirrors.
Are you sure it was not 17,000 Corey????
Save or Create Regards:rolleyes:

road kill
06-18-2009, 09:46 AM
Are you sure it was not 17,000 Corey????
Save or Create Regards:rolleyes:

The 17,000 number would be how many jobs were "saved!!"

Prove it wrong!!:rolleyes:

Terry Britton
06-18-2009, 10:08 AM
Some of this "New Jobs" reminds me of Clinton's creation of summer jobs for students in the early 90's. What happened with the job I got at a USDA lab under the Federal Govt. that would have paid $11.50 an hour was transfered to the local University where they paid $6.50 an hour. No new job was actually created, and the beuacracy siphoned of $5 per hour that would have went to students that would have spent the $$$, and stimulated the economy.

I suggest everyone to read the 1950's book "How to Lie with Statistics".

YardleyLabs
06-18-2009, 10:27 AM
Statistics on jobs created are a little funky under any circumstances and should always be taken with a pound of salt. If you look at a program spending money, you need to estimate how much is going as return on capital and how much is going to labor. The latter could be said to provide a measure of Job creation in the first instance. Next you have to consider what happens to the money that is spent on both labor and capital. Does it go into a pot of cash that is stuffed into a mattress or is it spent on other goods and services either for current consumption or investment. Thise activities may also create derivative jobs. Do you count those or not? Are you actually creating jobs or simply redeploying workers from one job to another with a higher wage? The former only happens when there are excess resources in the economy. In the latter case, the result is not higher employment but inflation. Do new jobs get created by spending for activities involving labor? Yes. Is there a good way to count that impact? Not really. What is a job anyway? If I hire 12 people for one month under one project and one person for a year under another, which project created the greater number of jobs?

dnf777
06-18-2009, 03:39 PM
It's really simple. Given the efficiency of gov't administrators, it will take 1700 office staffers to run the local unemployment office and give out unemployment checks to the 1700 people who will NOT get jobs from this project. Got it?

"How to Lie with Statistics" ... I'll second that recommendation--Great book

road kill
06-18-2009, 05:44 PM
"There are lies, damned lies and statistics!" Mark Twain

badbullgator
06-19-2009, 09:25 AM
In our local paper today they are now saying that the estimate was well off the actual number of jobs it will “create”. Several people and new outlets called them on their numbers. The state says that the jobs “created” will mostly be for the 60 million dollar construction project and the breakdown is only a 100 or so will be doing the actual construction and the rest of the jobs are attributed to people selling them food and services while they are doing the work and all of the people who manage and work behind the scenes in those businesses that are providing these services like hotels and restaurants. They went on to say that there is really no way to pin down the “exact” number. I read that to say they simply made them up. I was born at night, but not last night and I cannot see for the life of me how a 100 or even 300 construction workers could possible “create” 1400 jobs supporting them while they are doing the work.

Steve Amrein
06-19-2009, 10:39 AM
In our local paper today they are now saying that the estimate was well off the actual number of jobs it will “create”. Several people and new outlets called them on their numbers. The state says that the jobs “created” will mostly be for the 60 million dollar construction project and the breakdown is only a 100 or so will be doing the actual construction and the rest of the jobs are attributed to people selling them food and services while they are doing the work and all of the people who manage and work behind the scenes in those businesses that are providing these services like hotels and restaurants. They went on to say that there is really no way to pin down the “exact” number. I read that to say they simply made them up. I was born at night, but not last night and I cannot see for the life of me how a 100 or even 300 construction workers could possible “create” 1400 jobs supporting them while they are doing the work.


I dont know if this count but every road project I have ever seen has a ration of 1 guy working and 5-10 standing around. so statistically if you have 100 folks working 700 watching and maybe 50 or so various hookers and liqour store employees. My wife and I could likely build it faster ourselves with a pickup truck and a bobcat.

dnf777
06-19-2009, 09:21 PM
I dont know if this count but every road project I have ever seen has a ration of 1 guy working and 5-10 standing around. so statistically if you have 100 folks working 700 watching and maybe 50 or so various hookers and liqour store employees. My wife and I could likely build it faster ourselves with a pickup truck and a bobcat.

Its just like hospitals...for every doctor or nurse actually caring for a patient, there's 400 administrative-types looking over your shoulder, second guessing, and driving up the cost of healthcare.

zeus3925
06-20-2009, 09:08 AM
Often when new projects are proposed, the "jobs created" figures are the product of a multiplier, generally around 6. For instance, if a project employs a hundred workers, those workers need groceries , hair cuts, cleaners, bankers, etc. The project needs concrete, rebar, equipment, etc. Suppliers of goods and services have to hire more workers in turn to provide services.

So if you ceate a 100 jobs on a site, it translates to about 600 in the community, or so the theory goes.

Pete
06-20-2009, 11:03 AM
It's really simple. Given the efficiency of gov't administrators, it will take 1700 office staffers to run the local unemployment office and give out unemployment checks to the 1700 people who will NOT get jobs from this project. Got it?

I think you hit it on the head,,, perfect answere:D

Pete

badbullgator
06-20-2009, 08:59 PM
Its just like hospitals...for every doctor or nurse actually caring for a patient, there's 400 administrative-types looking over your shoulder, second guessing, and driving up the cost of healthcare.


Yeah most of them insurance people trying to figure out how little insuracne of medicare is going to pay for what has been done