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Sabireley
02-11-2010, 01:16 PM
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2010/02/09/john-lott-joseph-daleo-climate-change-noaa-james-hansen/
In a January 29 report, they find that starting in 1990, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) began systematically eliminating climate measuring stations in cooler locations around the world. The number of stations has dropped from 6000 to 1500.

YardleyLabs
02-11-2010, 02:06 PM
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2010/02/09/john-lott-joseph-daleo-climate-change-noaa-james-hansen/
In a January 29 report, they find that starting in 1990, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) began systematically eliminating climate measuring stations in cooler locations around the world. The number of stations has dropped from 6000 to 1500.
Ignoring the fact that this study was sponsored by the same organization that, on behalf of Philip Morris, continued to deny any link between smoking and cancer until the 1990's, and ignoring the fact that d'Aleo and Lott have earned their reputations as deniers rather than scientists, the fundamental problem with their paper is that it is based entirely on a misrepresentation of the manner in which global temperatures are calculated.

Weather stations are not and never have been uniformly distributed geographically. In fact, they have always been overweighted in land areas (rather than oceanic), and in the northern countries of Europe, North America, and the poles. For that reason, global temperatures have been estimated using a grid based approach (defined by latitude and longitude) with a differential weighting to reflect the fact that grids represent varying surface areas because those nearer the poles are smaller than those nearer the equator. In some of these grids, there may be only one or a few weather stations (or none at all), while in others there are many. If there is only one weather station in a grid, that becomes the estimated temperature for that grid. If there are five stations in a grid, their readings are averaged to estimate the temperature of the grid.

The reduction in the number of weather stations used for calculating temperatures definitely included more northern stations than southern ones reflecting, in part, the over-representation of northern stations in the original sample. However, using the weighted, grid-based approach for calculating global temperatures, this would not necessarily have any impact at all on temperature calculation. The tip-off, of course,is that d'Aleo and Lott never attempted to estimate impact in this way. Instead, they treated the whole thing as if it were calculated by simply averaging readongs from all stations without adjustment. They also never published their findings in any scientific manner, but issued their "report" as a political manifesto disclosing conspiratorial fraud. Foxnews, in its report, becomes a party to the d'Aleo/Lott propaganda by publishing their report as fact without seeking any comment from anyone else. How is that for "fair and balanced".

EDIT: I referred to Lott above. His actual name is Watts.

M&K's Retrievers
02-11-2010, 02:39 PM
Ignoring the fact that this study was sponsored by the same organization that, on behalf of Philip Morris, continued to deny any link between smoking and cancer until the 1990's, and ignorign the fact that d'Aleo and Lott have earned their reputations as deniers rather than scientists, the fundamental problem with their paper is that it is based entirely on a misrepresentation of the manner in which global temperatures are calculated.

Weather stations are not and never have been uniformly distributed geographically. In fact, they have always been overweighted in land areas (rather than oceanic), and in the northern countries of Europe, North America, and the poles. For that reason, global temperatures have been estimated using a grid based approach (defined by latitude and longitude) with a differential weighting to reflect the fact that grids represent varying surface areas because those nearer the poles are smaller than those nearer the equator. In some of these grids, there may be only one or a few weather stations (or none at all), while in others there are many. If there is only one weather station in a grid, that becomes the estimated temperature for that grid. If there are five stations in a grid, their readings are averaged to estimate the temperature of the grid.

The reduction in the number of weather stations used for calculating temperatures definitely included more northern stations than southern ones reflecting, in part, the over-representation of northern stations in the original sample. However, using the weighted, grid-based approach for calculating global temperatures, this would not necessarily have any impact at all on temperature calculation. The tip-off, of course,is that d'Aleo and Lott never attempted to estimate impact in this way. Instead, they treated the whole thing as if it were calculated by simply averaging readongs from all stations without adjustment. They also never published their findings in any scientific manner, but issued their "report" as a political manifesto disclosing conspiratorial fraud. Foxnews, in its report, becomes a party to the d'Aleo/Lott propaganda by publishing their report as fact without seeking any comment from anyone else. How is that for "fair and balanced".

Says who, Yardley? You? Where do you find the time?

YardleyLabs
02-11-2010, 02:57 PM
Says who, Yardley? You? Where do you find the time?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (see the quote below from the NOAA web site at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/index.html). This is common knowledge among meteorologists. If d"Aleo and Watts ignore it, I have to suspect their motives.

By the way, in my original post, for reasons I don't know, I repeatedly referred to Watts as Lott.

How is the average global temperature anomaly time-series calculated?
The global time series is produced from the Smith and Reynolds blended land and ocean data set (Smith and Reynolds, 2005 (http://lwf-d.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/Smith-Reynolds-dataset-2005.pdf)). This data set consists of monthly average temperature anomalies on a 5° x 5° grid across land and ocean surfaces. These grid boxes are then averaged to provide an average global temperature anomaly. An area-weighted scheme is used to reflect the reality that the boxes are smaller near the poles and larger near the equator. Global-average anomalies are calculated on a monthly and annual time scale. Average temperature anomalies are also available for land and ocean surfaces separately, and the Northern and Southern Hemispheres separately.

Goose
02-11-2010, 03:51 PM
Global warming has forever been exposed for the lie that it is. As Algore would say...the debate is over.

We live in Cuba now.

Buzz
02-11-2010, 03:57 PM
Global warming has forever been exposed for the lie that it is. As Algore would say...the debate is over.

We live in Cuba now.


After-all, look, it's snowing in DC!

Never mind that they are trucking in snow so they can have a winter olympics...

Marvin S
02-11-2010, 04:32 PM
Never mind that they are trucking in snow so they can have a winter olympics...

The local rag had an article yesterday (that's the Seattle Times) by Ron Judd, page 1 of the sports page. You might want to read that prior to your posting again. In a nutshell, Cypress Mountain is famous for a lack of snow & when it exists it's called "Slush". ;-)

Buzz
02-11-2010, 05:02 PM
The local rag had an article yesterday (that's the Seattle Times) by Ron Judd, page 1 of the sports page. You might want to read that prior to your posting again. In a nutshell, Cypress Mountain is famous for a lack of snow & when it exists it's called "Slush". ;-)

I was going by the report I saw on the weather channel last weekend. They did a special report, and they were saying that it is very uncharacteristically warm there this winter. They claimed that this time of year, there is normally a 10 foot base on that hill and that last week it was down to 3 feet. Looked like you could tear up a pair of skis on the rocks pretty bad.

blind ambition
02-11-2010, 05:28 PM
I live here in the shadow of Cypress Bowl, I see the trucks carrying bales of hay up to the bowl each day and can tell you that this has been the warmest Winter I've seen since moving here in '65. That said; weather isn't climate, lots of people get that confused. You might be cold today or you might be warm, it's the trend you've got to watch.

YardleyLabs
02-11-2010, 09:31 PM
I live here in the shadow of Cypress Bowl, I see the trucks carrying bales of hay up to the bowl each day and can tell you that this has been the warmest Winter I've seen since moving here in '65. That said; weather isn't climate, lots of people get that confused. You might be cold today or you might be warm, it's the trend you've got to watch.
Exactly. As my favorite stat professor said in graduate school, "Personal experience is not statistically significant."

Buzz
02-11-2010, 10:14 PM
Exactly. As my favorite stat professor said in graduate school, "Personal experience is not statistically significant."



I wasn't trying to make the point that this was statistically significant. I was trying illustrate how silly it is to point at isolated events, such as the big snowstorms on the east coast. Actually the big storms are not inconsistent with climate change at all.

junbe
02-12-2010, 07:07 AM
Exactly. As my favorite stat professor said in graduate school, "Personal experience is not statistically significant."

I hope your professor also pointed out the difference between statistically significant and practically significant. Also observational studies have led to advances in the scientific community. Not all statistical studies are well designed. It depends on the integrity of the individuals involved. Just to relate an experience I had as a statistical advisor on a thesis. The Dean asked me to be on the Committee to help set up the design for the thesis. After a couple years of work the student presented me his work to sign off. I noticed that he had an unbalanced design which was different from the original plan. I asked him why the difference. His advisor had asked him to remove all the raw data that didn't meet his hypothesis. I'm sure this practice continues today with the amount of money granted to propagate a certain point of view.

Jack, Ph.D.

paul young
02-12-2010, 08:42 AM
why is sea level rising faster today than it has since we started keeping records?

is someone manufacturing water and dumping it in the oceans?-Paul

Gerry Clinchy
02-12-2010, 09:23 AM
If we grant that the data is accurate, the question still remains as to whether this data reflects something man has done (or is a natural course of events occurring out of the control of man) and whether the measures that have been suggested will have the desired impact on what may be a trend.

Advocates are presuming that the advent of the industrial age precipitated the data presented.

If we truly believe this data, does it make sense to rebuild New Orleans, rather than relocate its people & businesses? Does it make sense to insure homes hit by hurricanes repeatedly, knowing that the events will repeat themselves?

A local person contemplated purchasing a condo in the Caribbean somewhere ... until he discovered that nobody would insure the costly home :-) That makes some sense. The risk of climate in that location is well-documented, so the insurors have taken the position that those who choose to live there will have to assume the risk.

Pete
02-12-2010, 09:27 AM
Exactly. As my favorite stat professor said in graduate school, "Personal experience is not statistically significant

Exactly ,,Hasnt the world been on a cooling and warming cycle like forever, even before man built the first steam engene;-).

Its been unusually warm this past January here but December was an early bitter cold,, It doesnt mean a thing.

I would ask why the polar star isnt quite so polar as it used to be. Just thinkin here.
Gotta mean somethin



I hope your professor also pointed out the difference between statistically significant and practically significant. Also observational studies have led to advances in the scientific community. Not all statistical studies are well designed. It depends on the integrity of the individuals involved. Just to relate an experience I had as a statistical advisor on a thesis. The Dean asked me to be on the Committee to help set up the design for the thesis. After a couple years of work the student presented me his work to sign off. I noticed that he had an unbalanced design which was different from the original plan. I asked him why the difference. His advisor had asked him to remove all the raw data that didn't meet his hypothesis. I'm sure this practice continues today with the amount of money granted to propagate a certain point of view.



I have a good friend who is a scientist,,,he says this stuff happens all the time. He is also fed up with the politics involved with science.
Now you know why I scratch my head when I read some of the scientific jargon. Whats your agenda and I'll tell you my science
Pete

badbullgator
02-12-2010, 09:30 AM
Exactly. As my favorite stat professor said in graduate school, "Personal experience is not statistically significant."

And statistics over the course of a few hundred years in the scope of 10s of thousands of years is a blip at best. Climate change has happened since time began and will continue long after we are gone.

Pete
02-12-2010, 09:31 AM
why is sea level rising faster today than it has since we started keeping records

Paul
Maby because the earth is actually cooling its not evaperating fast enough:D

Pete

badbullgator
02-12-2010, 09:32 AM
why is sea level rising faster today than it has since we started keeping records?

is someone manufacturing water and dumping it in the oceans?-Paul


is it?

.

Buzz
02-12-2010, 10:06 AM
is it?

.




http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_global_sm.jpg



Increasing temperatures result in sea level rise by the thermal expansion of water and through the addition of water to the oceans from the melting of continental ice sheets. Thermal expansion, which is well-quantified, is currently the primary contributor to sea level rise and is expected to be the primary contributor over the course of the next century. Glacial contributions to sea-level rise are less important, and are more difficult to predict and quantify.

Hew
02-12-2010, 10:13 AM
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_global_sm.jpg

.
OMG. The sea has risen about 2 inches in the last 15 years! That's insane! We should rearrange our economy and entire way of life or else in another 4,789,343 years I will have some sweet beachfront property here in Central FL.

M&K's Retrievers
02-12-2010, 10:14 AM
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

ducknwork
02-12-2010, 10:14 AM
After-all, look, it's snowing in DC!

Never mind that they are trucking in snow so they can have a winter olympics...

That's the answer! The earth is actually changing it's axis! Soon, the equator will be cold and the north and south pole will be the new vacation spots for spring breakers.

ducknwork
02-12-2010, 10:15 AM
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_global_sm.jpg



Increasing temperatures result in sea level rise by the thermal expansion of water and through the addition of water to the oceans from the melting of continental ice sheets. Thermal expansion, which is well-quantified, is currently the primary contributor to sea level rise and is expected to be the primary contributor over the course of the next century. Glacial contributions to sea-level rise are less important, and are more difficult to predict and quantify.

Did you get that graph from Henry?

Buzz
02-12-2010, 10:18 AM
OMG. The sea has risen about 2 inches in the last 15 years! That's insane! We should rearrange our economy and entire way of life or else in another 4,789,343 years I will have some sweet beachfront property here in Central FL.

I'm sure the process is linear.

YardleyLabs
02-12-2010, 10:26 AM
I hope your professor also pointed out the difference between statistically significant and practically significant. Also observational studies have led to advances in the scientific community. Not all statistical studies are well designed. It depends on the integrity of the individuals involved. Just to relate an experience I had as a statistical advisor on a thesis. The Dean asked me to be on the Committee to help set up the design for the thesis. After a couple years of work the student presented me his work to sign off. I noticed that he had an unbalanced design which was different from the original plan. I asked him why the difference. His advisor had asked him to remove all the raw data that didn't meet his hypothesis. I'm sure this practice continues today with the amount of money granted to propagate a certain point of view.

Jack, Ph.D.
Absolutely true. He also taught the difference between academic fraud and scientific analysis. One of the stupidities of the academic process is research is sometimes viewed as a failure if it does not support the investigator's original hypothesis. This obviously creates an incentive for fraud since science must value positive and negative findings equally to avoid research bias.

badbullgator
02-12-2010, 10:42 AM
3.2mm +/- 0.4mm per year! Wow! Quick someone do the math for me, I live two blocks from the river, how long before I can build a dock??? Oh yeah I can't build one anyway, your not allowed because docks kill manatees. Of course this year was the higest manatee count of ALL time AND more manatees died from cold stress last year than ever before.
Once again do we stop man made global warming and save the poor polar bears who are dying because it is too hot by making it cooler. OR do we save the manatees by letting it "get warmer" thus saving them from dying from cold stress?

The sky, she is falling........

M&K's Retrievers
02-12-2010, 11:00 AM
Does anyone know how much Gore has profited from all this crap? Follow the money.

Mountain out of a molehill regards

YardleyLabs
02-12-2010, 11:12 AM
Does anyone know how much Gore has profited from all this crap? Follow the money.

Mountain out of a molehill regards
I think that would be particularly informative in tracking the backgrounds of the deniers.

Buzz
02-12-2010, 11:21 AM
3.2mm +/- 0.4mm per year! Wow! Quick someone do the math for me, I live two blocks from the river, how long before I can build a dock??? Oh yeah I can't build one anyway, your not allowed because docks kill manatees. Of course this year was the higest manatee count of ALL time AND more manatees died from cold stress last year than ever before.
Once again do we stop man made global warming and save the poor polar bears who are dying because it is too hot by making it cooler. OR do we save the manatees by letting it "get warmer" thus saving them from dying from cold stress?

The sky, she is falling........

Actually I don't have an opinion on how serious the problem is, or what lengths we should go to in order to address it. But I do believe that releasing greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere has an effect on our weather. But there are lots of things that we can't control that has impact too, like sun spot activity or volcanic activity. You asked if sea levels were really rising. I provided you with a graph that shows that it is. In fact it's risen almost 8 inches in the last 100 years. Big deal, I guess. But the fact is it's rising, most likely due to expansion from increase in temperature.

http://www.climate.org/topics/sea-level/images/clip_image002.gif


Or maybe it hasn't...

Claim That Sea Level Is Rising Is a Total Fraud

http://www.climatechangefacts.info/ClimateChangeDocuments/NilsAxelMornerinterview.pdf

The fact is, you'll believe whatever you want to believe. I'm not going to change your mind, and you're not going to change mine. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.



I think that would be particularly informative in tracking the backgrounds of the deniers.

The guy who wrote the sea level denier article:

. Dr. Nils-Axel Morner, emeritus professor of paleogeophysics and geodynamics, Stockholm University, Sweden. Strong ties to the oil industry, and claims to be an expert in "dowsing." Connected to the anti-global warming group Natural Resources Stewardship Project.
http://www.desmogblog.com/nils-axel-morner
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nils-Axel_M%C3%B6rner

Read more: http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/latest/inhofe-global-warming-deniers-industry-money-46011008#ixzz0fL82w2O1



. Dr. Nils-Axel Morner, emeritus professor of paleogeophysics and geodynamics, Stockholm University, Sweden. Strong ties to the oil industry, and claims to be an expert in "dowsing." Connected to the anti-global warming group Natural Resources Stewardship Project.
http://www.desmogblog.com/nils-axel-morner
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nils-Axel_M%C3%B6rner

Read more: http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/latest/inhofe-global-warming-deniers-industry-money-46011008#ixzz0fL82w2O1


Nils-Axel Morner

Morner, James Randi and "dowsing"

Morner claims to be an expert in "dowsing," the practice of finding water, metals, gemstones etc. through the use of a Y-shaped twig.

Morner's attempt to prove his dowsing abilities is chronicled by James Randi, the well-known myth buster, who has offered the longstanding One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge.

Research and Background

Morner is a retired professor from the University of Stockholm. According to a search of 22,000 academic journals, Morner has published 65+ original research papers in peer-reviewed journals, mainly in the area of paleoseismicity, in other words the study of historical earthquake activity.

Morner and the NRSP

Listed as an "allied expert" for a Canadian group called the "Natural Resource Stewardship Project," (NRSP) a lobby organization that refuses to disclose it's funding sources. The NRSP is led by executive director Tom Harris and Dr. Tim Ball. An Oct. 16, 2006 CanWest Global news article on who funds the NRSP, it states that "a confidentiality agreement doesn't allow him [Tom Harris] to say whether energy companies are funding his group."

DeSmog uncovered information that two of the three directors on the board of the Natural Resources Stewardship Project are registered energy industry lobbyists and senior executives of the High Park Advocacy Group, a Toronto-based lobby firm that specializes in “energy, environment and ethics.”

M&K's Retrievers
02-12-2010, 11:37 AM
I doubt that man caused the "problem" and equally sure he ain't gonna fix it.

Uncle Bill
02-12-2010, 12:24 PM
It's likely no one on this BB will disagree that the planet is always having climate changes. It's the SUCKERS that are falling for the "man-made" part of the equation.

What is hilarious is how this crowd is so easily taken in, and willing to bastardize themselves by following the Algore farce, thus proving Phineas Taylor Barnum's famous undeniable truth, " a sucker born every minute".

Now comes the goofballs claiming the current snow pattern in the USA is ALSO proof of their favorite cause-du jour.

How much proof is needed? Just follow the money! If a politician can be so easily 'bought off', why not a scientist surviving on the government tit? If you can't see this hoax as a scam by Algore and his ilk, you aren't even worthy of an original thought.

UB

precisionlabradors
02-12-2010, 12:30 PM
k, it's false, now what?
________
Hooker (http://www.fucktube.com/video/13004/asian-bar-girls-and-hookers-teasing-and-strip-dancing)

Marvin S
02-12-2010, 12:45 PM
why is sea level rising faster today than it has since we started keeping records?

is someone manufacturing water and dumping it in the oceans?-Paul

It's all those subs you built displacing water!!!!!!:BIG:

Leddyman
02-12-2010, 01:03 PM
After-all, look, it's snowing in DC!

Never mind that they are trucking in snow so they can have a winter olympics...

Which is a dearth of moisture and has nothing to do with temperature

M&K's Retrievers
02-12-2010, 01:05 PM
It's all those subs you built displacing water!!!!!!:BIG:

Finally, someone makes some sense!

Leddyman
02-12-2010, 01:08 PM
why is sea level rising faster today than it has since we started keeping records?

is someone manufacturing water and dumping it in the oceans?-Paul

It Ain't rising you are getting shorter.

Claim That Sea Level Is
Rising Is a Total Fraud


Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner is the head of the Paleogeophysics and
Geodynamics department at Stockholm University in Sweden.
He is past president (1999-2003) of the INQUA Commission
on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, and
leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project. Dr. Mörner has
been studying the sea level and its effects on coastal areas for
some 35 years. He was interviewed by Gregory Murphy on
June 6 for EIR.




http://www.climatechangefacts.info/ClimateChangeDocuments/NilsAxelMornerinterview.pdf



Crap!!! I just saw that Buzz beat me to it.

T. Mac
02-12-2010, 01:13 PM
I doubt that man caused the "problem" and equally sure he ain't gonna fix it.

Or as is more apt the case, man will make things worse trying to fix it. Personally, given the choice, I'd rather have it too warm than too cold (talking 5-10 degree variation).