david gibson
06-28-2010, 07:37 AM
just idle blog type ramblings and musings.......
been watching this as each analysis is released and the cone of uncertainty keeps creeping north. not good news for anyone, except poor coastal mexicans around Tampico.
it always seems that if a storm is headed right at us (galveston-freeport) it always veers and misses, but if it is aimed elsewhere, it never veers and misses the predicted spot and comes here, we went 25 yrs without a hit until Ike in 2008 when new orleans area had 5 or 6 it seems, if not more. Alex is battling a low over texas panhandle/new mexico area that wants to pull it north, and a high over florida that wants to push it west. what will win? the models are 50/50 at this point.....
if it pulls north, its even more time over very warm water and its already a slow mover - 6mph. although i doubt it will veer far enough to the spill zone, if it comes in central to upper texas coast then the spill zone is on the dirty side and will likely experience a strong onshore flow of winds in the 40-50 mph range offshore with waves 10'+, and tides 4-5 feet above normal. not not not not good. that oil is going to go way farther into the marshes than i care to imagine.
is there enough harbor space for all those boats and ships? they will have to scatter all over west florida and the northeast gulf ports, and achor in out of the way places in inlets and canals and ship channels i suppose. what a logistical nightmare. who's in charge here, thad allen?
a few things bother me. they say they need 5 days to evacuate the response machine out there if a storm pops up. 5 days? ok, a strong storm that forms in the ITC and takes the well-trodden path across the carribean and across cuba/yucatan can give us up to 10 days of guess time, but 5 days? storms form all the time in the gulf and become hurricane strength in 2 or 3 days, some even less. it is rare that a gulf-spawned storm stays over water 5 days. and as early as this storm is and as warm as the gulf is this year that isa an humbling thought. we could easily see 5 or more interruptions to this effort, and each one is a huge undertaking.
and why does anyone even think and ponder what the oil on the surface would do to affect storm formation??? the oil covers only a very tiny surface area in the grand scheme of things, the odds of a storm trying to form directly over it is minuscule, and at 40 miles from shore its not going to get too big anyway. further, even if a storm like Alex headed that way, with a head of steam at Cat 3 with all the winds ahead of it dispersing the oil all around and churning it up by the time the eye gets over it there would be very little oil in that spot for one, and for two again, its only a small area comparatively so it is not going to knock the storm down nearly as much as the same sized piece of land. a 10% drop, which i doubt is remotely possible, aint much when dealing with a cat 2 or bigger.
in open sea a hurricane might be a good thing for a spill like this, spread it thin, allow for it to volatilize faster and more surface area for microbes and more oxygen for them to work with. but where it is all its going to do is smear it over a larger, much larger inland area. it will help to volatilize and help microbes as well, but by then the damage is done.
gonna be an interesting next few days........
been watching this as each analysis is released and the cone of uncertainty keeps creeping north. not good news for anyone, except poor coastal mexicans around Tampico.
it always seems that if a storm is headed right at us (galveston-freeport) it always veers and misses, but if it is aimed elsewhere, it never veers and misses the predicted spot and comes here, we went 25 yrs without a hit until Ike in 2008 when new orleans area had 5 or 6 it seems, if not more. Alex is battling a low over texas panhandle/new mexico area that wants to pull it north, and a high over florida that wants to push it west. what will win? the models are 50/50 at this point.....
if it pulls north, its even more time over very warm water and its already a slow mover - 6mph. although i doubt it will veer far enough to the spill zone, if it comes in central to upper texas coast then the spill zone is on the dirty side and will likely experience a strong onshore flow of winds in the 40-50 mph range offshore with waves 10'+, and tides 4-5 feet above normal. not not not not good. that oil is going to go way farther into the marshes than i care to imagine.
is there enough harbor space for all those boats and ships? they will have to scatter all over west florida and the northeast gulf ports, and achor in out of the way places in inlets and canals and ship channels i suppose. what a logistical nightmare. who's in charge here, thad allen?
a few things bother me. they say they need 5 days to evacuate the response machine out there if a storm pops up. 5 days? ok, a strong storm that forms in the ITC and takes the well-trodden path across the carribean and across cuba/yucatan can give us up to 10 days of guess time, but 5 days? storms form all the time in the gulf and become hurricane strength in 2 or 3 days, some even less. it is rare that a gulf-spawned storm stays over water 5 days. and as early as this storm is and as warm as the gulf is this year that isa an humbling thought. we could easily see 5 or more interruptions to this effort, and each one is a huge undertaking.
and why does anyone even think and ponder what the oil on the surface would do to affect storm formation??? the oil covers only a very tiny surface area in the grand scheme of things, the odds of a storm trying to form directly over it is minuscule, and at 40 miles from shore its not going to get too big anyway. further, even if a storm like Alex headed that way, with a head of steam at Cat 3 with all the winds ahead of it dispersing the oil all around and churning it up by the time the eye gets over it there would be very little oil in that spot for one, and for two again, its only a small area comparatively so it is not going to knock the storm down nearly as much as the same sized piece of land. a 10% drop, which i doubt is remotely possible, aint much when dealing with a cat 2 or bigger.
in open sea a hurricane might be a good thing for a spill like this, spread it thin, allow for it to volatilize faster and more surface area for microbes and more oxygen for them to work with. but where it is all its going to do is smear it over a larger, much larger inland area. it will help to volatilize and help microbes as well, but by then the damage is done.
gonna be an interesting next few days........