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david gibson
06-28-2010, 07:37 AM
just idle blog type ramblings and musings.......

been watching this as each analysis is released and the cone of uncertainty keeps creeping north. not good news for anyone, except poor coastal mexicans around Tampico.

it always seems that if a storm is headed right at us (galveston-freeport) it always veers and misses, but if it is aimed elsewhere, it never veers and misses the predicted spot and comes here, we went 25 yrs without a hit until Ike in 2008 when new orleans area had 5 or 6 it seems, if not more. Alex is battling a low over texas panhandle/new mexico area that wants to pull it north, and a high over florida that wants to push it west. what will win? the models are 50/50 at this point.....

if it pulls north, its even more time over very warm water and its already a slow mover - 6mph. although i doubt it will veer far enough to the spill zone, if it comes in central to upper texas coast then the spill zone is on the dirty side and will likely experience a strong onshore flow of winds in the 40-50 mph range offshore with waves 10'+, and tides 4-5 feet above normal. not not not not good. that oil is going to go way farther into the marshes than i care to imagine.

is there enough harbor space for all those boats and ships? they will have to scatter all over west florida and the northeast gulf ports, and achor in out of the way places in inlets and canals and ship channels i suppose. what a logistical nightmare. who's in charge here, thad allen?

a few things bother me. they say they need 5 days to evacuate the response machine out there if a storm pops up. 5 days? ok, a strong storm that forms in the ITC and takes the well-trodden path across the carribean and across cuba/yucatan can give us up to 10 days of guess time, but 5 days? storms form all the time in the gulf and become hurricane strength in 2 or 3 days, some even less. it is rare that a gulf-spawned storm stays over water 5 days. and as early as this storm is and as warm as the gulf is this year that isa an humbling thought. we could easily see 5 or more interruptions to this effort, and each one is a huge undertaking.

and why does anyone even think and ponder what the oil on the surface would do to affect storm formation??? the oil covers only a very tiny surface area in the grand scheme of things, the odds of a storm trying to form directly over it is minuscule, and at 40 miles from shore its not going to get too big anyway. further, even if a storm like Alex headed that way, with a head of steam at Cat 3 with all the winds ahead of it dispersing the oil all around and churning it up by the time the eye gets over it there would be very little oil in that spot for one, and for two again, its only a small area comparatively so it is not going to knock the storm down nearly as much as the same sized piece of land. a 10% drop, which i doubt is remotely possible, aint much when dealing with a cat 2 or bigger.

in open sea a hurricane might be a good thing for a spill like this, spread it thin, allow for it to volatilize faster and more surface area for microbes and more oxygen for them to work with. but where it is all its going to do is smear it over a larger, much larger inland area. it will help to volatilize and help microbes as well, but by then the damage is done.

gonna be an interesting next few days........

paul young
06-28-2010, 08:09 AM
this is not good news.

i hope this one goes west.....-Paul

dnf777
06-28-2010, 08:13 AM
Interesting ramblings....;)

I would think that an oil sheen may affect storms by reducing the amount of evaporation, although how much this would come into play is only a guess. Wave action would most definately break up any surface tension, but I would have to imagine that evaporation occurs more efficiently in the absense of oil, than with it. A storm derives much energy from the evaporation of surface water, so it may decrease the amount of energy a storm can pull from the warm waters? Any meteoroligists here?

david gibson
06-28-2010, 08:18 AM
Interesting ramblings....;)

I would think that an oil sheen may affect storms by reducing the amount of evaporation, although how much this would come into play is only a guess. Wave action would most definately break up any surface tension, but I would have to imagine that evaporation occurs more efficiently in the absense of oil, than with it. A storm derives much energy from the evaporation of surface water, so it may decrease the amount of energy a storm can pull from the warm waters? Any meteoroligists here?

your points are correct, but read what i said about the relative size of the area with water vs the size of the gulf. really a small area in relation and still, spread thin by the front winds ahead of the storm - not sure if it would matter. to be honest, i think its a non issue. its not going to make them go away and a 10% drop is nothing.

now, this time next year, when the oil covers the surface of the entire gulf of mexico, we might see the affect...... (i cant even put a smiley face here)

dnf777
06-28-2010, 10:00 AM
your points are correct, but read what i said about the relative size of the area with water vs the size of the gulf. really a small area in relation and still, spread thin by the front winds ahead of the storm - not sure if it would matter. to be honest, i think its a non issue. its not going to make them go away and a 10% drop is nothing.

now, this time next year, when the oil covers the surface of the entire gulf of mexico, we might see the affect...... (i cant even put a smiley face here)

Did you see Paul's post? That is truly scary, and makes me think the Gulf may be one big oil sheen by next year.

Is this being discussed at the G20 at all, or do they have more pressing issues taking up their time?? :confused:

david gibson
06-28-2010, 11:20 AM
Did you see Paul's post? That is truly scary, and makes me think the Gulf may be one big oil sheen by next year.

Is this being discussed at the G20 at all, or do they have more pressing issues taking up their time?? :confused:

funny you should ask. i was sent this link from a gorgeous drop dead conservative italian new jersey hottie that i have never met but is a friend on facebook. oh to be 15 yrs younger....sigh. oh well, i digress.

she is pretty sharp, but this one i have to take with a grain of salt. not exactly a top of the line credible web site, but, if there is any substance it will come out in coming days/weeks. i resisted posting it last night but since you brought it up.....

get out your salt regards....

http://beforeitsnews.com/story/87/256/Alert:_Obama_Warns_World_Leaders_Millions_Could_Di e_From_Gulf_Oil_Disaster.html

troy schwab
06-28-2010, 02:37 PM
David,
Thats some scary S#&T...... I hope all of that information is incorrect. Unfortunately, it seems to coincidental..... God help us!

dnf777
06-28-2010, 02:48 PM
David,
Thats some scary S#&T...... I hope all of that information is incorrect. Unfortunately, it seems to coincidental..... God help us!

I wanna hear more about the gorgeous drop dead conservative Italian New Jersey hottie!!! And get more xxxooo's from Pals! Hot Damn! What a day!!

troy schwab
06-28-2010, 02:53 PM
I wanna hear more about the gorgeous drop dead conservative Italian New Jersey hottie!!! And get more xxxooo's from Pals! Hot Damn! What a day!!

CRAP! Almost forgot about the hottie...... yeah need the 411 on that too, David!! Thanks for the reminder!

BonMallari
06-28-2010, 03:20 PM
You guys on the coast need you one of these :p:p

http://i163.photobucket.com/albums/t319/bonmallari/stone.jpg