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View Full Version : New jobless claims fall to near two-year low



Roger Perry
07-15-2010, 03:22 PM
WASHINGTON ó New applications for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week while manufacturing activity cooled in June and wholesale prices dipped, offering mixed signals on the economic recovery.
The Labor Department said Thursday that new claims dropped by 29,000 to 429,000, the lowest level since August 2008. But much of that was the result of seasonal factors. General Motors (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38258717/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/#) and other manufacturers skipped their usual summer shutdowns.
It was the second straight week that initial claims dropped sharply and the third drop in the last four weeks. Claims fell by 17,000 in the previous week.
Separately, the Labor Department said that wholesale prices fell for a third consecutive month, pulled down by another drop in energy costs (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38258717/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/#) and the biggest plunge in food costs in eight years.




Could the economy possibly be on the rebound?

Chad in case you did not know that was a question.

T. Mac
07-15-2010, 03:35 PM
Could the economy possibly be on the rebound?




Or, Is there just no one left that can be layed off?

Note the FED report of yesterday that said something to the effect that it will be 4-5 years before any real noticeable improvement is seen.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38246161/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

Mike W.
07-15-2010, 03:35 PM
US Philadelphia Fed Ė July

US Ė PHILADELPHIA FED 5.1 Jul vs 10.0 consensus, 8.0 Jun

New Orders -4.3 Jul vs 9.0 Jun

Shipments 4.0 Jul vs 14.2 Jun

Employment 4.0 Jul vs -1.5 Jun

Inventories 4.5 Jul vs 4.6 Jun

Prices Paid 13.1 Jul vs 10.0 Jun

Prices Received -8.4 Jul vs -6.5 Jun

Future Capex 8.6 Jul vs 3.0 Jun


Eleven-Month Low, New Orders Contract. The Jul Philly Fed index disappointed for a second straight month. The headline index was the lowest since Aug 2009. And forward-looking New Orders was negative for the first time since Jul 2009.


Decent ISM Guide. For what itís worth, the Philly headline has been a decent guide lately for the national ISM Mfg index, moving in the same direction in 3 of the last 4 months.


Demand Moderation. Besides the New Orders drop, Shipments were at a 10-month low and the New Orders-Inventories spread moved into negative territory (-8.8) for the first time since Feb 2009. This is a signal of more moderate growth in manufacturing output in coming months.


Future Investment Off The Peak. The Future Capex index rose off Junís 9-month low. But the index is now expanding in the single-digit range, compared to double-digits late last year and early this year.


Selling Prices Cool Again. Prices Received index contracted at the quickest pace in 10 months.

Blackstone
07-15-2010, 03:55 PM
WASHINGTON ó New applications for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week while manufacturing activity cooled in June and wholesale prices dipped, offering mixed signals on the economic recovery.
The Labor Department said Thursday that new claims dropped by 29,000 to 429,000, the lowest level since August 2008. But much of that was the result of seasonal factors. General Motors (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38258717/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/#) and other manufacturers skipped their usual summer shutdowns.
It was the second straight week that initial claims dropped sharply and the third drop in the last four weeks. Claims fell by 17,000 in the previous week.
Separately, the Labor Department said that wholesale prices fell for a third consecutive month, pulled down by another drop in energy costs (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38258717/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/#) and the biggest plunge in food costs in eight years.




Could the economy possibly be on the rebound?

A decline in new applications would indicate the decline in new job losses, and perhaps a bottom to the economic decline, but it may not necessarily indicate the economy has begun to rebound yet.

Most of the auto companies skipped the traditional summer shutdown because they have shut down so many plants already, they can barely keep up with current demand. For example, the new Equinox is a hot product for GM. On average, currently, there is only a 13 day supply on dealerís lots. Many dealers have no more than 1 or 2 in stock. I canít speak for Ford or Chrysler products, but I have to assume their hot products are in short supply also.

On the other hand, I have been encouraged by comments from some of my customers that are seeing some upturn in their business. Many of them could not afford to purchase vehicles last year, but they are buying this year. I can only hope this is a signal that the economy is rebounding.

Franco
07-15-2010, 04:41 PM
With the newly worded oil drilling ban, south Louisiana will lose 20,000 jobs paying over 90k annually and another 35,000 jobs in the 35k-60k range.

Those jobs won't be coming back anytime soon as the rigs are on thier way to other places on th globe.

We have two huge oil field support companies that are moving thier corporate headquarters from here to Dubai. They won't be paying local, state and fedreal taxes anymore. Dubai is offering oil companies major incentives to move there as thier government is not hostile to oil companies like ours is.

duckheads
07-15-2010, 04:47 PM
what great news! what we have only lost 2.5 millions job since the stimulus was passed. OMG imagine what things would be like if they didn't cram that down our throats!:rolleyes: My business has picked up so much I think I will go buy a new hummer.

by the way I heard that number from stuart varney this am. I would appreciate if one of the middle of the roaders would snopes that number for me. I really don't have time since I need to figure out how this administration is going to help my business next. I can't wait to 1099 all of my venders because of the wonderful health care bill. maybe I will hire someone to handle the paper work and if a lot of small businesses have to do the same these numbers will continue to go down. Yippie!!!!!

And did you know that under the new health care bill that all real estate transactions are subject to a 3.8 % Sales Tax?
This is effective Jan. 1, 2013 Yippie!!!!!!!!

Franco
07-15-2010, 05:00 PM
And did you know that under the new health care bill that all real estate transactions are subject to a 3.8 % Sales Tax?
This is effective Jan. 1, 2013 Yippie!!!!!!!!



How else would we be able to pay for the Health Care, Schooling and other social services for all our new illegal immigrents?

gman0046
07-15-2010, 05:01 PM
Where on earth would this country be without the Messiah?

Buzz
07-15-2010, 05:08 PM
We have two huge oil field support companies that are moving thier corporate headquarters from here to Dubai.


Then the sooner we stop burning what they produce, the better.

Are you totally confident in Dubai's financial future?

Franco
07-15-2010, 06:11 PM
Then the sooner we stop burning what they produce, the better.

Are you totally confident in Dubai's financial future?

There is no doubt they have over-built. That could be the reason they are making it so attractive for companies to move there.

They have laid in billions in infastructure in thier attempt to build the finest of everything.

Our dependence on oil will not be going away anytime soon. We know that and they know that. As the current administration becomes more hostile to oil, medical and banking, I can understand those companies wanting to move there.

Yes, I think Dubai not only has a very bright future, they are a shinning example for the rest of the Arab world. An Arab nation free of the claws of Islam where they take a much more moderate approach to the outside world. I think that Dubai over the longhaul will do more to damage radical Islam than anything the USA might do.

david gibson
07-15-2010, 07:30 PM
And did you know that under the new health care bill that all real estate transactions are subject to a 3.8 % Sales Tax?
This is effective Jan. 1, 2013 Yippie!!!!!!!!

http://www.snopes.com/politics/taxes/realestate.asp

Blackstone
07-15-2010, 07:32 PM
Then the sooner we stop burning what they produce, the better.

Are you totally confident in Dubai's financial future?

It's our own fault. All they need to do is drop the price of gas to $2/gallon, and most Americans will abandon all efforts to move to an alternative energy source.

duckheads
07-16-2010, 08:37 AM
http://www.snopes.com/politics/taxes/realestate.asp

I stand corrected. the article they qouted is what I read. Thanks!

gman0046
07-16-2010, 05:49 PM
AOL's Money and Finance site www.dailyfinance.com reports the actual U.S. unemployment figure could be as much as 22% or higher. Raghavan Mayur President at TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence has questioned the accuracy of the Labor Departments figures. Go to the site and read it for yourself.

Gerry Clinchy
07-16-2010, 08:14 PM
If I were in the high-earning group; and if kids were grown & gone, I'd make sure to do any scale-down of a high-end home before 2013.

Wonder if we'll see a lot of high-end homes going on the market starting in mid-2011?

The high-end home market is tanking in a lot of areas of the country right now; not to mention those that are going to foreclosure. That could mean that those high-end sellers won't have to worry about making any profit if they sell in the near future.

Right now the housing market is pretty stagnant in my area.

T. Mac
07-16-2010, 11:46 PM
If I were in the high-earning group; and if kids were grown & gone, I'd make sure to do any scale-down of a high-end home before 2013.

Wonder if we'll see a lot of high-end homes going on the market starting in mid-2011?

The high-end home market is tanking in a lot of areas of the country right now; not to mention those that are going to foreclosure. That could mean that those high-end sellers won't have to worry about making any profit if they sell in the near future.

Right now the housing market is pretty stagnant in my area.

Never fear, help is on the way!


Now, however, the California Housing Finance Agency in Sacramento is poised to become a national test case for principal reduction. It has $420 million in hand from the Treasury Department to lower borrowers' principal by $50,000 per house. Banks are being asked to match that amount. The experiment begins Nov. 1.

Read more: http://www.sacbee.com/2010/07/16/2893994/home-front-idea-to-reduce-principal.html#ixzz0tuaFpHY5

badbullgator
07-17-2010, 05:33 AM
If I were in the high-earning group; and if kids were grown & gone, I'd make sure to do any scale-down of a high-end home before 2013.

Wonder if we'll see a lot of high-end homes going on the market starting in mid-2011?

The high-end home market is tanking in a lot of areas of the country right now; not to mention those that are going to foreclosure. That could mean that those high-end sellers won't have to worry about making any profit if they sell in the near future.

Right now the housing market is pretty stagnant in my area.


Locally, Naples FL, we have seen a 48% increase in sales of homes over 2M including several in the 30M range. At the same time the area ranks 3 in home foreclosures.........Not sure exactly what that means

Gerry Clinchy
07-17-2010, 08:18 AM
Locally, Naples FL, we have seen a 48% increase in sales of homes over 2M including several in the 30M range. At the same time the area ranks 3 in home foreclosures.........Not sure exactly what that means

If the owners o the $2M homes were "under water", they could just be walking away & letting foreclosure take place. So, those expensive homes could have been selling now for much less than their outstanding mortgage.

It is very disturbing that so many people are so willing to let someone else pay for their mistakes in their purchase. I've mentioned that with personal examples before. Not unique to the high-end market, but the #s are much bigger there.

I'm not so sure I agree with the principal reductions. I'd rather see extensions of the term, so that eventually everyone will get their money back if they are willing to be patient for the market to recover.

Reducing principal is not much better than a short sale, in the end. I'd venture that some of those principal reductions could "foster" sales (making them equal to the short sale scenario).

In high-end housing, from $750K up, a "mere" $100K reduction might not be enough. If you're at $3M, and the home is really worth $2M, the $100K isn't going to help a whole lot to convince the seller not to opt out & walk away. This might be true of CA property (where prices are very high), so might not be the very best place to "test" this theory.

It would be very interesting to see where the bulk of foreclosures & short sales are occurring. I don't think I've seen that kind of analysis. Knowing where the most help is needed, might help formulate a program thta has the greatest overall impact.

badbullgator
07-17-2010, 08:22 AM
If the owners o the $2M homes were "under water", they could just be walking away & letting foreclosure take place. So, those expensive homes could have been selling now for much less than their outstanding mortgage.

It is very disturbing that so many people are so willing to let someone else pay for their mistakes in their purchase. I've mentioned that with personal examples before. Not unique to the high-end market, but the #s are much bigger there.

I'm not so sure I agree with the principal reductions. I'd rather see extensions of the term, so that eventually everyone will get their money back if they are willing to be patient for the market to recover.

Reducing principal is not much better than a short sale, in the end. I'd venture that some of those principal reductions could "foster" sales (making them equal to the short sale scenario).

In high-end housing, from $750K up, a "mere" $100K reduction might not be enough. If you're at $3M, and the home is really worth $2M, the $100K isn't going to help a whole lot to convince the seller not to opt out & walk away. This might be true of CA property (where prices are very high), so might not be the very best place to "test" this theory.

It would be very interesting to see where the bulk of foreclosures & short sales are occurring. I don't think I've seen that kind of analysis. Knowing where the most help is needed, might help formulate a program thta has the greatest overall impact.

The story did say that these high end sales were NOT foreclosures or shot sales but were GREAT values at the price sold.

Gerry Clinchy
07-17-2010, 08:36 AM
The story did say that these high end sales were NOT foreclosures or shot sales but were GREAT values at the price sold.

Would be interesting to know the details on these sales. There could certainly be other factors:

1) Had the owners already "negotiated" with their banks. Then, went to sell them?

2) Were they second homes that were not highly leveraged, but no longer affordable due to the national economic situation?

3) Were many of them new construction where the builder could come out okay by selling for a lot less than he would have gotten during the bubble? In our area, new construction prices during the bubble were "what the market would bear" & the profit margins for builders were immense.

Let's just hope the buyers were not all investors who leveraged too much before the market has reached its "natural" bottom.

subroc
07-17-2010, 09:09 AM
...The Labor Department said Thursday that new claims dropped by 29,000 to 429,000, the lowest level since August 2008...

pining fot the Bush years...

Gerry Clinchy
07-17-2010, 09:15 AM
NY Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/17/business/economy/17consumers.html?_r=1&th&emc=th

Hmm ... maybe taxing the "rich" isn't all that helpful after all.

Interesting that this article mentions that the "rich" are those earning over $90K/year. Obama's campaign promise not to add taxes to those over $250K/year income would not include a bunch of "rich" people.

Gerry Clinchy
07-17-2010, 12:19 PM
Here is some information on high-end foreclosures in CA
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/09/business/economy/09rich.html?pagewanted=1&ref=business&src=me



Whether it is their residence, a second home or a house bought as an investment, the rich have stopped paying the mortgage at a rate that greatly exceeds the rest of the population.

More than one in seven homeowners with loans in excess of a million dollars are seriously delinquent, according to data compiled for The New York Times by the real estate analytics firm CoreLogic.

By contrast, homeowners with less lavish housing are much more likely to keep writing checks to their lender. About one in 12 mortgages below the million-dollar mark is delinquent.




The delinquency rate on investment homes where the original mortgage was more than $1 million is now 23 percent. For cheaper investment homes, it is about 10 percent.

With second homes, the delinquency rate for both types of owners was rising in concert until the stock market crashed in September 2008. That sent the percentage of troubled million-dollar loans spiraling up much faster than the smaller loans.



Willingly, but not necessarily publicly. The rapper Chamillionaire is a plain-talking exception. He recently walked away from a $2 million house he bought in Houston in 2006.

“I just decided to let it go, give it back to the bank,” he told the celebrity gossip TV show “TMZ (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/tmz_productions/index.html?inline=nyt-org).” “I just didn’t feel like it was a good investment.”


The vast majority of owners in these upscale communities are still paying the mortgage, of course. But they appear to be cutting back in other ways. The once-thriving Los Altos downtown is pocked with more than a dozen empty storefronts in a six-block stretch.



But this is still Silicon Valley, where failure can always be considered a prelude to success.

In the middle of a workday, one troubled homeowner here leaned over his laptop at the kitchen table, trying to maneuver his way out from under his debt and figure out the next big thing.

His five-bedroom house, drained of hundreds of thousands of dollars of equity over the last 13 years, is scheduled for auction July 20. Nine months ago, after his latest business (he has had several) failed in what he called “the global meltdown,” the man, a technology entrepreneur, said he quit making his $9,000 monthly payments.

Note: We sometimes forget that some of these bad loans were not always new purchases, but taking out equity based on the "bubble" real estate prices. While this owner may have used the equity for business investment, others used the equity for vacations, furniture, cars, etc.

“I’m going to be downsizing,” he said.

The man spoke on the condition of anonymity because, he said, he did not want his current problems to interfere with his coming reinvention. “I’m a businessman,” he explained. “I have to be upbeat.”