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View Full Version : Stocks see best September in 71 years



Roger Perry
09-30-2010, 04:02 PM
The Dow Jones industrials ($INDU) (http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?symbol=$indu) finished September with a 7.7% gain. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) (http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?symbol=$inx) was up 8.8%. Both enjoyed their best September performances since 1939.

The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) (http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?symbol=$compx) added 12% for the month, its best September since 1998.

Normally the weakest month for stocks since 1950, September confounded many analysts. They'd confidently expected the market to slide further after a weak August performance because of worries that the economy was about to sink back into recession.

<LI sizcache="0" sizset="140" itxtvisited="1">American International Group (AIG) (http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?symbol=aig), up 4.4% to $39.10. The insurer, once the world's largest, agreed with U.S. regulators to repay its bailout by converting the government's holdings into common shares for sale, a step toward independence. <LI sizcache="0" sizset="141" itxtvisited="1">McCormick & Co. (MKC) (http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?symbol=mkc), up 2.3% to $42.04. The world's biggest spice seller said it would earn at least $2.57 a share excluding one-time items this year. The Street consensus has been $2.54. <LI sizcache="0" sizset="142" itxtvisited="1">Comverse Technology (CMVT) (http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?symbol=cmvt) up 15.4% to $6.73. Oracle and buyout firms are interested in buying the voice-mail software maker's assets, The Wall Street Journal said. The report added that buyout firms may be more interested in Verint Systems (VRNT) (http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?symbol=vrnt), a maker of business analysis software. Verint, 54% owned by Comverse, jumped 146% to $29.55. <LI sizcache="0" sizset="144" itxtvisited="1">Limelight Networks (LLNW) (http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?symbol=llnw), up 6.5% to $5.89. The maker of software that speeds delivery and prevents online problems with Web videos may be poised to rise, CNBC's Jim Cramer said Wednesday on his “Mad Money” program. <LI sizcache="0" sizset="145" itxtvisited="1">Manitowoc (MTW) (http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?symbol=mtw), up 13.6% to $12.11. The world's biggest manufacturer of overhead cranes will refinance a portion of its term loans with senior unsecured notes. The offering should "materially reduce" concern over potential equity distress, Morgan Stanley said.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/market-dispatches.aspx?post=1811262&_blg=1,1811262

Maybe some good news for the economy for a change?

Franco
10-01-2010, 06:29 AM
If you think the big swings in stock prices indicate a healthy economy, then I suggest you buy all you can. The more experienced and traditional investors will tell you it is a sign of a fickled, weak and manipulated market.

Percentages also don't mean squat and are deceiving. When a stock has lost much of its value, then jumps up it makes those percentage increases look good. What insiders call "Sucker's Gold" because only a greedy sucker would think of buying.

M&K's Retrievers
10-01-2010, 08:54 AM
Who is doing the buying?

Buzz
10-01-2010, 09:00 AM
Franco, I don't believe the stock market tells you anything about the true state of the economy.

Also, what the stock market gives, the stock market taketh away...

Franco
10-01-2010, 09:37 AM
Franco, I don't believe the stock market tells you anything about the true state of the economy.

Also, what the stock market gives, the stock market taketh away...


I agree and stated so with my post. Personally, I wouldn't touch the stock market until we get some meaningful reform and eliminate the anti-business climate in DC.

Buzz
10-01-2010, 10:13 AM
I agree and stated so with my post. Personally, I wouldn't touch the stock market until we get some meaningful reform and eliminate the anti-business climate in DC.

I don't know. I got some F at about $1.67/share. I got some aapl back when it was about $90/share. But I bought those when the rest of the world was panicking and stock prices were falling through the floor. I bought KFT at close to $25/share, so the yield on my dividend is pretty good there. The yield on PGN based on an entry of $38/share isn't bad either. ;-)

But, like George Castanza, I tend to do the opposite. When everyone is panicking, I'm thinking about buying. Right now, I'm not thinking too much about buying. Maybe I'm wrong, it wouldn't surprise me if I am.

duckheads
10-01-2010, 10:21 AM
Of course the market is doing good. The current administration is full of people from wall street. That is what they care about because they all made their money on big bad wall street and are heavily invested in big bad wall street.

Franco
10-01-2010, 10:28 AM
I don't know. I got some F at about $1.67/share. I got some aapl back when it was about $90/share. But I bought those when the rest of the world was panicking and stock prices were falling through the floor. I bought KFT at close to $25/share, so the yield on my dividend is pretty good there. The yield on PGN based on an entry of $38/share isn't bad either. ;-)

But, like George Castanza, I tend to do the opposite. When everyone is panicking, I'm thinking about buying. Right now, I'm not thinking too much about buying. Maybe I'm wrong, it wouldn't surprise me if I am.

I know several folks that made out like Bandits when they bought Ford below $2. I thought about it but with Ford competiting against government owned GM, it wasn't as compelling an investment as real estate. I may have missed the wind fall with Ford but know that my property will always be there and I have never lost on real estate. It is a long term play much like the stock market use to be back in the days when stock prices had meaning to them.

Though our area has not seen a dip in the value of homes, they haven't appriciated that much either. I just don't trust nor do I have any control with what happens to stock prices. Values make little sense so I choose to abstain.;-)

Marvin S
10-01-2010, 05:15 PM
I don't know. I got some F at about $1.67/share. I got some aapl back when it was about $90/share. But I bought those when the rest of the world was panicking and stock prices were falling through the floor. I bought KFT at close to $25/share, so the yield on my dividend is pretty good there. The yield on PGN based on an entry of $38/share isn't bad either. ;-)

But, like George Castanza, I tend to do the opposite. When everyone is panicking, I'm thinking about buying. Right now, I'm not thinking too much about buying. Maybe I'm wrong, it wouldn't surprise me if I am.

So, you've made a smart business decision. You've bought at a very favorable price, rather like buying a nice house in a good neighborhood in Detroit right now.

What is your pricing point on F & AAPL for a potential sale? That's the hard part :).

Rudd
10-01-2010, 10:23 PM
I'm willing to bet the stock market hits 7500 again, in the next 12-18 months.

depittydawg
10-01-2010, 10:41 PM
I'm willing to bet the stock market hits 7500 again, in the next 12-18 months.

I'll take that bet. The market has been incredibly stable and steadily rising within a backdrop of intense politically driven negative economic news. The market is the leading forward indicator of the US economy. A stable and steady rising market is probably a prediction of the Bull around the corner. Is now a time to buy? If you're not in the market now, I would dollar cost average back in over the next year. The market was tested this summer and it passed. No bears looking forward. Fluctuations? Yes. Bear? No way.

M&K's Retrievers
10-01-2010, 11:31 PM
I'll take that bet. The market has been incredibly stable and steadily rising within a backdrop of intense politically driven negative economic news. The market is the leading forward indicator of the US economy. A stable and steady rising market is probably a prediction of the Bull around the corner. Is now a time to buy? If you're not in the market now, I would dollar cost average back in over the next year. The market was tested this summer and it passed. No bears looking forward. Fluctuations? Yes. Bear? No way.

Quote the raven, "Nevermore".:cool:

Rudd
10-02-2010, 09:30 AM
Look up "head and shoulders tecnical indicator", then look at the DJIA.

M&K's Retrievers
10-02-2010, 09:57 AM
Look up "head and shoulders tecnical indicator", then look at the DJIA.

That does it. I'm putting all my money in dandruff shampoo.:rolleyes:

depittydawg
10-02-2010, 09:58 AM
Look up "head and shoulders tecnical indicator", then look at the DJIA.

Well I placed my bet in the market last year. I bought Utilities, pharma, UTX and INTC last time the market dipped below 10K. I'm up on all of them except INTC. Funny how all the Wall Street investors seem to like what the new Health changes did for Pharma.
I suppose its time to review the portfolio again and make some adjustments. I won't be reducing my overall Market investments, but I won't be increasing them much at this point either.

I'm not sure what a strong September means, but it can't be all that bearish. If it dips some folks will panic and it may test 9K again. That's another buy opportunity. The economy is in recovery now, even if it is an anemic one, whereas before it was in meltdown. Should the market go bullish, you don't want to be caught out of it. I'd still buy quality and yield. Even it stays flat, or even dips, you still get your dividends which are paying better rates than anything in the financial world.
As far as the technical indicators, I don't really watch them that much. I know a lot of people do. And many claim it works. Best method I've found is to buy quality stocks and hold them. Also historically the markets have risen much more under democratic presidents than republicans. I have no idea why that is true, but it is a very good indicator for a very long tme.

Do you have any recommendations for buys, or sells? Or overall portfolio management?

depittydawg
10-02-2010, 10:01 AM
That does it. I'm putting all my money in dandruff shampoo.:rolleyes:

Best bet is JNJ. When it dips, buy it! You'll make money.

M&K's Retrievers
10-02-2010, 10:40 AM
Best bet is JNJ. When it dips, buy it! You'll make money.

I'll, uh, get right on that.:rolleyes:

Rudd
10-02-2010, 04:25 PM
Do you have any recommendations for buys, or sells? Or overall portfolio management?

I'm far from the person to give advice. Here is how I go about evaluating bullish stocks and all must be met or I don't buy. I didn't come up with this list, this was something I have learned in my education and has worked well for me:

*I want an up trending stock or sideways trending with volume 1.5 times the avg. (last 60 days).

*The price has moved above moving average (last 30 days)?

*MACD moved above the center signal line. This is a momentum indicator.

* Stochastic has moved above the 25% line. If it's above 75%, overbought, below 25%, over sold. Try to find an up tick (sloping up) between 25% and 75%.

*Strong F/E Score: > 3.25

*Price Pattern Score: > 2.5

*The industry the stock is in must be up trending or sideways trending. 50% of the stocks movement is tied to the industry it is in.

*Broken resistance or bouncing support. Don’t want stock to be hitting resistance or bouncing off support.

Couple of things to remember:
*When the markets go up, 75% of the stocks go with it.
*When the markets go down, 90% of the stocks go with it.