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Roger Perry
10-21-2010, 04:14 PM
Carrie Dann writes: It's been a recurrent theme throughout the last days of this midterm election cycle: "New poll shows [Insert Senate race that didn't seem competitive three weeks ago] is tightening."
According to some polls, candidates in a handful of states have made apparent gains after months of trailing. In Pennsylvania, two new surveys show Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak who has struggled to stay within striking distance of Republican Pat Toomey since the state's May primary now polling within the margin of error. A St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio poll released Tuesday put Democrat Russ Feingold just two points behind GOP nominee Ron Johnson. In the pricey (and contentious) California Senate contest, a new PPIC poll shows GOP candidate Carly Fiorina catching up with incumbent Barbara Boxer. Gaps have also seemingly closed in Colorado and Alaska.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/10/21/5329237-tightening-races-or-just-politics-as-usual

road kill
10-21-2010, 04:15 PM
Carrie Dann writes: It's been a recurrent theme throughout the last days of this midterm election cycle: "New poll shows [Insert Senate race that didn't seem competitive three weeks ago] is tightening."
According to some polls, candidates in a handful of states have made apparent gains after months of trailing. In Pennsylvania, two new surveys show Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak who has struggled to stay within striking distance of Republican Pat Toomey since the state's May primary now polling within the margin of error. A St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio poll released Tuesday put Democrat Russ Feingold just two points behind GOP nominee Ron Johnson. In the pricey (and contentious) California Senate contest, a new PPIC poll shows GOP candidate Carly Fiorina catching up with incumbent Barbara Boxer. Gaps have also seemingly closed in Colorado and Alaska.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/10/21/5329237-tightening-races-or-just-politics-as-usual
Yeah, your probly right, the Democrats will win almost every contest!!:cool:


RK

subroc
10-21-2010, 04:22 PM
Yeah, your probly right, the Democrats will win almost every contest!!:cool:


RK

I expect Roger just wet his pants over that comment.

But, Russ Feingold will go down in flames. this could be a 10 point margin.

road kill
10-21-2010, 04:24 PM
I expect Roger just wet his pants over that comment.

But, Russ Feingold will go down in flames. this could be a 10 point margin.

Believe me, Russ has EARNED what he's got comin!!!


RK

YardleyLabs
10-21-2010, 04:33 PM
I actually receive emails 5-6 times per day telling me how close the races have become. However, they are not really addressing the likely voter part of the equation.

I suspect that the Democrats will face heavy losses and possibly even lose control in both houses. However, that could turn around completely if Democrat go to the polls. Things are certainly a lot closer today than they were four weeks ago.

The Republicans are suffering from having fielded really weak candidates in some critical races (New York, Delaware, Arizona) and from the fact that the electorate is motivated by dislike for the Obama administration, but hates Congress even more (with Congressional Republicans ranking lower than Congressional Democrats) and Republicans in general only a little bit less. All of that combines to make the outcome less predictable and the "mandate" received by the victors non-existent.

The real battle over the next two years will be for control of the Republican party. Today, the tea party is winning that battle. If it continues to succeed and does not moderate its positions, the possibility of splitting the Republican party goes up and the likelihood of success goes down.

Several days ago, Franco posted the Gallup poll findings that 46% of the population felth that their personal freedom was threatened by the government. This represented only a 2% increase since 2006-2007. However, the make up of those who are fearful changed dramatically, as shown below:

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/b1ft7jees0wt8q30qh7gsa.gif
Personally, I would have answered that I felt threatened by the government in 2006 and 2010. I find it hard to believe that so few Republicans felt threatened by the Bush administration and that so few Democrats feel threatened by the Obama administration. The worst thought, however, is that Democrats and Republicans may actually have been right in 2006 and right in 2010. Maybe the parties have polarized to such an extent that they are now real threats to all who disagree or do not fit the mold of the target "demographic". If that is the case, we have almost no future as a world power.

BonMallari
10-21-2010, 05:03 PM
the media are nothing but shills for the political parties....just like ESPN is a shill for the Vegas sportsbooks...the media tells you that candidate A is ahead by X amount of points in their latest poll, so of course John Q Sheeple voter dosesnt want to admit that they voted for the loser so they vote for the front runner...

ESPN tells everyone that THE Ohio St Buckeyes are going to beat Wisconsin by two touchdowns maybe more, so everyone and their kid sister bets Ohio St minus the spread...only they forgot to tell Wisconsin who kicked the Buckeyes butts from the get go and won the game convincingly...

How many people will admit they voted for Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bush 43 (second term)...and of course BHO....very few but somehow all these guys won, because people are sheeple and choose their candidates the same way they pick their laundry detergent..Madison Ave advertising...

subroc
10-21-2010, 07:09 PM
...The real battle over the next two years will be for control of the Republican party. Today, the tea party is winning that battle. If it continues to succeed and does not moderate its positions, the possibility of splitting the Republican party goes up and the likelihood of success goes down...

That is what democrats believe or at least like to posit.

I expect a more believable truth is the electorate, after watching obama, pilosi and reid in action were horrified with the shift to the extreme left the democrat party had taken and it will take eons for the nation to give any trust back to the democrats.

BTW, what qualification do you believe gives you insight into the republican psyche to present such a claim?

road kill
10-21-2010, 07:37 PM
That is what democrats believe or at least like to posit.

I expect a more believable truth is the electorate, after watching obama, pilosi and reid in action were horrified with the shift to the extreme left the democrat party had taken and it will take eons for the nation to give any trust back to the democrats.

BTW, what qualification do you believe gives you insight into the republican psyche to present such a claim?

He knows everything!!
It has been proven time and again.......:cool:

RK

dnf777
10-21-2010, 07:54 PM
The Republicans are suffering from having fielded really weak candidates in some critical races (New York, Delaware, Arizona) and from the fact that the electorate is motivated by dislike for the Obama administration, but hates Congress even more (with Congressional Republicans ranking lower than Congressional Democrats) and Republicans in general only a little bit less.


At least one weak candidate who shares a media market with a neighboring state may have far-reaching effects. If Sestak can link Toomey with O'Donnel (who share the Philly/south NJ/Delaware market) she may drag him down to defeat in what's shaping up to be a very close race.

I can't believe a wall-street raider is even in the same race as a 30 year Navy veteran! Who's the elitist in this race?

YardleyLabs
10-21-2010, 09:18 PM
That is what democrats believe or at least like to posit.

I expect a more believable truth is the electorate, after watching obama, pilosi and reid in action were horrified with the shift to the extreme left the democrat party had taken and it will take eons for the nation to give any trust back to the democrats.

BTW, what qualification do you believe gives you insight into the republican psyche to present such a claim?
No insight to anyone's psyche (that's my ex's job). Lots of experience reading and interpreting polling data for elections -- too much to dismiss things simply because I don't like the answers. As much as tea party and others claim the overwhelming support of the public, that support isn't there. Despite the many missteps of Democrats, the "generic ballot" shows a statistical tie between Republicans and Democrats.

What is different is that Democrats are demoralized by continued problems in the economy, while Republicans are as highly motivated today as Democrats were in 2008. If Democrats remain passive and stay away from the polls, Republicans will have massive gains. That could change quickly, although I do not believe it will in time to prevent major losses.

Once in power, Republicans will not be excused for failure to perform without regard to what the White House and Democrats do. However, nobody will accomplish anything that is part of the core agenda of either Republicans or Democrats. That is true because neither party will have the votes needed to pass anything except through compromise and, more importantly, because the American people do not support the core agendas of either party.

depittydawg
10-21-2010, 09:26 PM
I actually receive emails 5-6 times per day telling me how close the races have become. However, they are not really addressing the likely voter part of the equation.

I suspect that the Democrats will face heavy losses and possibly even lose control in both houses. However, that could turn around completely if Democrat go to the polls. Things are certainly a lot closer today than they were four weeks ago.

The Republicans are suffering from having fielded really weak candidates in some critical races (New York, Delaware, Arizona) and from the fact that the electorate is motivated by dislike for the Obama administration, but hates Congress even more (with Congressional Republicans ranking lower than Congressional Democrats) and Republicans in general only a little bit less. All of that combines to make the outcome less predictable and the "mandate" received by the victors non-existent.

The real battle over the next two years will be for control of the Republican party. Today, the tea party is winning that battle. If it continues to succeed and does not moderate its positions, the possibility of splitting the Republican party goes up and the likelihood of success goes down.

Several days ago, Franco posted the Gallup poll findings that 46% of the population felth that their personal freedom was threatened by the government. This represented only a 2% increase since 2006-2007. However, the make up of those who are fearful changed dramatically, as shown below:

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/b1ft7jees0wt8q30qh7gsa.gif
Personally, I would have answered that I felt threatened by the government in 2006 and 2010. I find it hard to believe that so few Republicans felt threatened by the Bush administration and that so few Democrats feel threatened by the Obama administration. The worst thought, however, is that Democrats and Republicans may actually have been right in 2006 and right in 2010. Maybe the parties have polarized to such an extent that they are now real threats to all who disagree or do not fit the mold of the target "demographic". If that is the case, we have almost no future as a world power.

The Republicans also suffer from an acute lack of ideas. To the voters with their thinking caps on, the Republican party is completely lacking in substance. As much as we despise the democratic leadership, there is no way in hell we can support the Republican party. Not all Americans have forgot the policies that crashed the economy from 2001 - 2008. Those are the same tired and failed policies the current round of Republicans are peddling.

subroc
10-22-2010, 06:09 AM
The Republicans also suffer from an acute lack of ideas...

Here are their ideas.


http://www.gop.com/2008Platform/2008platform.pdf

road kill
10-22-2010, 07:02 AM
No insight to anyone's psyche (that's my ex's job). Lots of experience reading and interpreting polling data for elections -- too much to dismiss things simply because I don't like the answers. As much as tea party and others claim the overwhelming support of the public, that support isn't there. Despite the many missteps of Democrats, the "generic ballot" shows a statistical tie between Republicans and Democrats.

What is different is that Democrats are demoralized by continued problems in the economy, while Republicans are as highly motivated today as Democrats were in 2008. If Democrats remain passive and stay away from the polls, Republicans will have massive gains. That could change quickly, although I do not believe it will in time to prevent major losses.

Once in power, Republicans will not be excused for failure to perform without regard to what the White House and Democrats do. However, nobody will accomplish anything that is part of the core agenda of either Republicans or Democrats. That is true because neither party will have the votes needed to pass anything except through compromise and, more importantly, because the American people do not support the core agendas of either party.
And "if" the Republicans gain control of the House & Senate what will be the obstacle to relieveing "gridlock?"

It won't be the Republicans, your side already played that card when you had a super majority.

It will be Obama.
I predict he will not yield or compromise a bit, blaming Republicans for his failures as they continue to mount.

In the end, this grand social experiment will be one of the great failures in American history.

This of course based on my readings and poll work for a state assemblyman (Republican) here in New Berlin WI.
(who actually won his election)

In those efforts I met NOONE who supported or praised Obama for what he has done.
The feelings run deep and hot in these parts.
Can't speak fpr PA, but in WI you are going to see a traditionally liberal state make an unprecedented and massive move to the right.

Scott Walker---Governer--Conservative
Ron Johnson---Senator--Conservative
Leah Vukmir--State Assembly---Conservative
Rebecca Kleefish--Lt Governer--Conservative

Just to list a few.

Tell me Yardley where I am wrong here in WI??
Check and see what the numbers are here.
They are LOP SIDED, not getting closer.
Each of these candidates has double digit leads.

When I had the HONOR of speaking to MEN who served their country in WW II and Korea I was astonished at their responses.
Grown men with tears in their eyes asking "what has happened to my country?"
"This is exactly what we fought against!!"

Of course, you know better........this is your dream.


The circus & the KLOWNS are leaving town.



RK

Cody Covey
10-22-2010, 10:29 AM
The Republicans also suffer from an acute lack of ideas. To the voters with their thinking caps on, the Republican party is completely lacking in substance. As much as we despise the democratic leadership, there is no way in hell we can support the Republican party. Not all Americans have forgot the policies that crashed the economy from 2001 - 2008. Those are the same tired and failed policies the current round of Republicans are peddling.LOL so you think if you just keep saying republicans have no ideas enough even you would actually believe it? Your thinking cap is broke sir go to one of the "big business" you despise so much for a repair~

Julie R.
10-22-2010, 10:58 AM
What is different is that Democrats are demoralized by continued problems in the economy, while Republicans are as highly motivated today as Democrats were in 2008. If Democrats remain passive and stay away from the polls, Republicans will have massive gains. That could change quickly, although I do not believe it will in time to prevent major losses.



What is different is the scale-tipping voters of 2008, didn't get all the free sh!# they were promised, so unless there's a candidate with stronger Hopium than the Hopey-Changey guy, they won't bother to vote at all.

ducknwork
10-22-2010, 12:06 PM
I can't believe a friend to terrorists and America haters is even in the same race as a 20+ year Navy veteran and former POW! Who's the elitist in this race?

Couldn't help myself...You wouldn't be outraged in a situation like this, would you?

Roger Perry
10-22-2010, 12:13 PM
Yeah, your probly right, the Democrats will win almost every contest!!:cool:


RK
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roger Perry http://new.retrievertraining.net/forums/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://new.retrievertraining.net/forums/showthread.php?p=693967#post693967)
Carrie Dann writes: It's been a recurrent theme throughout the last days of this midterm election cycle: "New poll shows [Insert Senate race that didn't seem competitive three weeks ago] is tightening."
According to some polls, candidates in a handful of states have made apparent gains after months of trailing. In Pennsylvania, two new surveys show Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak who has struggled to stay within striking distance of Republican Pat Toomey since the state's May primary now polling within the margin of error. A St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio poll released Tuesday put Democrat Russ Feingold just two points behind GOP nominee Ron Johnson. In the pricey (and contentious) California Senate contest, a new PPIC poll shows GOP candidate Carly Fiorina catching up with incumbent Barbara Boxer. Gaps have also seemingly closed in Colorado and Alaska.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news...itics-as-usual (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/10/21/5329237-tightening-races-or-just-politics-as-usual)

Yeah, your probly right, the Democrats will win almost every contest!!:cool:


RK


RK, If you notice that both parties are included in my post not just Democrats:confused:

Marvin S
10-22-2010, 12:42 PM
It will be Obama.
I predict he will not yield or compromise a bit, blaming Republicans for his failures as they continue to mount.

In the end, this grand social experiment will be one of the great failures in American history.

This of course based on my readings and poll work for a state assemblyman (Republican) here in New Berlin WI.
(who actually won his election)

In those efforts I met NOONE who supported or praised Obama for what he has done.
The feelings run deep and hot in these parts.
Can't speak fpr PA, but in WI you are going to see a traditionally liberal state make an unprecedented and massive move to the right.

Scott Walker---Governer--Conservative
Ron Johnson---Senator--Conservative
Leah Vukmir--State Assembly---Conservative
Rebecca Kleefish--Lt Governer--Conservative

Just to list a few.

Tell me Yardley where I am wrong here in WI??
Check and see what the numbers are here.
They are LOP SIDED, not getting closer.
Each of these candidates has double digit leads.

When I had the HONOR of speaking to MEN who served their country in WW II and Korea I was astonished at their responses.
Grown men with tears in their eyes asking "what has happened to my country?"
"This is exactly what we fought against!!"

Of course, you know better........this is your dream.


The circus & the KLOWNS are leaving town.



RK

Good for you, RK. It's nice to see peoiple put an effort where their beliefs are :cool:.

I do notice the absence by the defenders of all things BHO when it comes to arguing with facts. Without some peanuthead to quote they are lost as they have little original thought :o. The only reason some of these races are being called "close" is to jar the lethargic into pulling a lever.

In our state (WA) being a D gets you an automatic 10 points. But this year there are some great initiatives besides the Murray-Rossi senate race.

Initiatives - Privatize the State liquor stores, Privatize workmens Comp, An Income Tax on the high earners (sponsored by Bill Gates dad, partner in a law firm that does a lot of state business), Repeal the tax on food that was instituted by the legislature this last spring, An initiative to require a 2/3 rds vote on all tax increases by the legislature! Needless to say, the public employees unions oppose all but the income tax. It's apparently not enough to retire after 30 years, regardless of age, have a cola when you reach 65, they also want to be the beneficiaries of stress induced retirements through workmens comp so they pay no taxes on the income :(.

But the Murray- Rossi race is interesting. The campaign ads are better than regular TV, which don't require much. BHO has been here twice, Bill Clinton once & someone said next week will bring Michelle, WOW :D. The funny thing about all this, is those who are not party regulars are now saying, What's this costing us in extra security, traffic snarls, etc. BHO may be the best thing that ever happened, he's tone deaf & the populace is waking up, which is not a good thing for his brand.

But best of all, there is no GWB (though he was not a real R) clamor as the people are waking up to the fact that these Clowns have been in charge for some time & are proving they are not up to performing the task!

Buzz
10-22-2010, 02:45 PM
Personally, I hope the republicans take the government top to bottom. In fact, I wish they'd have done that in 2008.

Cody Covey
10-22-2010, 03:37 PM
Good for you, RK. It's nice to see peoiple put an effort where their beliefs are :cool:.

I do notice the absence by the defenders of all things BHO when it comes to arguing with facts. Without some peanuthead to quote they are lost as they have little original thought :o. The only reason some of these races are being called "close" is to jar the lethargic into pulling a lever.

In our state (WA) being a D gets you an automatic 10 points. But this year there are some great initiatives besides the Murray-Rossi senate race.

Initiatives - Privatize the State liquor stores, Privatize workmens Comp, An Income Tax on the high earners (sponsored by Bill Gates dad, partner in a law firm that does a lot of state business), Repeal the tax on food that was instituted by the legislature this last spring, An initiative to require a 2/3 rds vote on all tax increases by the legislature! Needless to say, the public employees unions oppose all but the income tax. It's apparently not enough to retire after 30 years, regardless of age, have a cola when you reach 65, they also want to be the beneficiaries of stress induced retirements through workmens comp so they pay no taxes on the income :(.

But the Murray- Rossi race is interesting. The campaign ads are better than regular TV, which don't require much. BHO has been here twice, Bill Clinton once & someone said next week will bring Michelle, WOW :D. The funny thing about all this, is those who are not party regulars are now saying, What's this costing us in extra security, traffic snarls, etc. BHO may be the best thing that ever happened, he's tone deaf & the populace is waking up, which is not a good thing for his brand.

But best of all, there is no GWB (though he was not a real R) clamor as the people are waking up to the fact that these Clowns have been in charge for some time & are proving they are not up to performing the task!
Yeah but unforunately Rossi is a boob and after watching the debate the other day on TV i see why he lost the last two times he ran. He can't answer a question to save his life and unfortunately Patty Murray picked up on that and called him out on it. They were straight forward questions where I thought he should've lit Patty up on her record AND been able to say how he would change. Instead he changed the subject. It felt like watching a Sarah Palin debate all over again.

Buzz
10-22-2010, 03:44 PM
It felt like watching a Sarah Palin debate all over again.


In that case, he's a shoo-in.

subroc
10-22-2010, 06:18 PM
Personally, I hope the republicans take the government top to bottom. In fact, I wish they'd have done that in 2008.

me too!

I just hope it isn't the rino's that cause the shift but those further to the right.

depittydawg
10-22-2010, 08:37 PM
LOL so you think if you just keep saying republicans have no ideas enough even you would actually believe it? Your thinking cap is broke sir go to one of the "big business" you despise so much for a repair~

Well genius, suppose you articulate exactly what the Republicans are proposing for Healthcare, the federal deficit, and economic recovery for starters. What do they want to do? How is it different from what they did last time they had control of Washington.

Cody Covey
10-23-2010, 12:59 AM
Well genius, suppose you articulate exactly what the Republicans are proposing for Healthcare, the federal deficit, and economic recovery for starters. What do they want to do? How is it different from what they did last time they had control of Washington.

Well genius, If you would've bothered to read the link subroc posted you would have not shoved your foot in your mouth considering ever single thing you asked for was addressed...Pull your foot out of your mouth before you talk next time please maybe then you won't "sound" like a moron....genius.

depittydawg
10-23-2010, 03:17 AM
Well genius, If you would've bothered to read the link subroc posted you would have not shoved your foot in your mouth considering ever single thing you asked for was addressed...Pull your foot out of your mouth before you talk next time please maybe then you won't "sound" like a moron....genius.

Ok. I deleted my 1st response to this and I'll be civil to try and keep this from descending into a war of insults. I read Subroc's link. I didn't respond to it because it failed completely to answer the question. If the Republican Party Platform in 2008 is the best you can do to articulate the Republican ideas for action in 2010 you proved my point. Same old tired and failed concepts and theories. Did you read it? It was a lot of words that identified virtually no specifics or plans of action. But beyond that, the more relevant question is what year is it? Oh, that's right, it's 2010. We are electing the congress for 2011. It's not 2008 anymore. The "fresh" ideas you are holding up are 2 years old. In fact they do not lay out a framework for action at all. They simply recite the same concepts, many of which were implemented during the Obama Administration, the Bush Administration, the Clinton Administration, the Bush 1 administration... all the way back to Reagan in many cases.

Now, back to the original question. I asked you to articulate what plan of action the Republicans have proposed THIS YEAR for Healthcare, the Federal Debt, and the Economy. What are the Republicans going to do, specifically if they get elected? And, more importantly, how is it different than what they and the democrats have done for the last 25 years?

Now, since I know you can't, or won't present your case, I will get more specific on my concerns Regarding what the Republican candidates have been saying for the last two years. I hear the same old theories which have failed miserably. I see.... hmmm 100% of the adds on TV in my state, for Republican candidates, say nothing of what they want to do. All they do is attack their opponents.
The general concepts I hear from the Republicans goes something like this.
1. Economy - Republicans want to Extend tax cuts for everybody, especially Corporations - Well, if the last 10 years of tax cuts didn't work, why are we considering doing it again? General Electric, IBM, Exon Mobil are a sample of Corporations who already pay no taxes. It's driving us into bankruptcy and NOT creating jobs in America. And, how you gonna pay for that? Nobody talks about that. If you know that answer, lets hear it.
Another General theme of Republicans is we need more deregulation. What does that look like? We saw a deregulated Energy meltdown in 2002. We saw deregulated healthcare spiral out of control. We saw the trillion dollar crash of the deregulated Financial Industries. And their answer is we need more of this?????

2. Healthcare= Republicans want to Repeal the healthcare reform act we got this year. Ok, then what? Only thing I've heard from them is Medical Savings accounts. Sorry, that dog don't hunt. The healthcare passed this year has lots of flaws. But it does have one thing that is VERY VERY GOOD. It prevents insurance companies from cutting people off when they get sick or old. It prevents them from denying insurance. It might actually swing them back to competing on healthcare delivery instead of healthcare denial. That in itself is reason enough to keep it. If Republicans have a better plan that accomplishes that goal, frankly they must be keeping is a secret. If you know what it is, Please share it with us.
3. Federal Deficit - As in every election cycle, Republicans want to end the deficit. How? They gonna kill Social Security? Gonna kill Medicare? Are they going to allow the government to negotiate prices for Prescription drugs? Lots of talk about that from the Tea Party on how Social Security and Medicare equals communism. Ok, what does the Republican alternative look like? What do they want to replace Medicare with? Social Security? They're not giving us any answers are they? Only attacks on what the Dems did and want to do.
Are they going to cut the military budget and retreat from empire? No, haven't heard that from any of them. I've heard some republicans say kill public education. Now there's a great idea. An uneducated population of workers in a high tech world. That will bring a lot of investment to America. Tea Party Candidates seem to want to privatize everything from Bridges to fire departments. Another gem of an idea. So, please, articulate if you will the Republican Strategy for ending the deficit, which, by the way, was run up more under their leadership than their oppositions.

My question still stands. What are the Republican Party candidates proposing in 2011 that is different than 2008, 2004, 2002, 2000 ..... Trickle Down, deregulation, and Deficits don't work. That is the Reagan legacy. It may have made some sense in 1980, but frankly we are out of borrowing power, to sustain it any longer. And that is still what the Republicans are all about.

So I ask again, if the above is not true, then enlighten us on what is different.