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Uncle Bill
01-31-2011, 04:38 PM
Please explain to me where the NYSE "traders" in this day and age, differ from the professional gamblers in Vegas?

Just curious.

UB

Marvin S
01-31-2011, 06:04 PM
Please explain to me where the NYSE "traders" in this day and age, differ from the professional gamblers in Vegas?

Just curious.

UB

I believe that there are a known set of facts used when dealing with securities, not all good nor not all bad. If they are all good the security will be overpriced, all bad underpriced, some bad is different than others. One has to weigh those when making their decision. Additionally, when dealing in the world of commodities supply & demand will be a function of the price one is willing to pay. As one goes along there are certain ground rules that you develop through experience.

I have a lot of criteria - one being the ability of an established business to reach certain price goals. Having been there before is a help & then knowing why a stock got there, why it dropped & it's ability to recover. Do they have a functioning management that has the interest of stockholders, as a consideration. There are names that I avoid!!!!!

I'm sure some Pro gamblers do well, & I'm also sure that they follow a pattern. But it is a game of chance. I had a boss during my working career that liked to win, even on the little things. He & I used to match for donuts with our AM coffee, for 2 solid months I never bought & the air was getting thick as he did not see it as a game of chance. Fortunately, I was needed elsewhere & moved. How do you explain winning 40 times in a row?

UB, I don't win on every investment, I liken it to being a dryland farmer, it isn't going to rain enough some years to make a harvest so I try to keep the exposure diversified as my grandpa did when I was growing up. We always had something & some years we made out well.

Now I don't do AU, but if the market ever drops again while I still have my facilities I will buy GDX or a similar ETF, which I believe the only way to go in that market, & I could be wrong. I believe there are cyclical strategic metals that provide more security & move with the economy, while you can also follow the supply demand line to see the need for more or less investment. During the downturn one of the investments made was RTI, which has a presence in TI. For your comparison, from March '09 it is now priced at 275% of what we paid for it. Did your AU do as well?

I set a goal of doubling value every 6 years, have managed to meet that even through the meltdowns. Generally meltdowns are sector specific, such as the Tech sector, which was grossly overheated. I know some who overloaded & lost 75% or more of their principal. When you do that in your golden years things become less than golden. The latest meltdown was, to me the greatest buying opportunity I have ever seen, & fortunately there was some extra green stuff laying around to use.

I don't gamble, used to fairly successfully. Made around a $1,000 one summer doing the hounds at BHKC when I was at Mines. Again I had a system which managed to hit 9 out of 10 races one night & the Daily Double. I also had a couple of hounds that owed me a lot. When I accompany the bride to the casino I entertain myself people watching, while that can be entertaining there is not a lot of talent to watch & I still have fairly good eyesight. Bon probably does much better in that category ;-).

Hope I answered you :).

Marvin S
02-02-2011, 11:06 PM
UB, this is why you do the market & stay away from popular stocks. The bride has her own Roth IRA which I have stocked up for her. She is from a family of Public Employees that never took a chance in their life. At this point in time I've tried to get her to look out for herself, I could be gone tomorrow.

Last week she finished an article on stocks I asked her to read & asked me to look at a couple of them. I thought they fit her criteria so we placed a limit order on both. So on the 28th of January this year she bought the 1st one @$13.57 including commission - today it closed @ $18.22. Not bad for 5 days :). The second one has not met the limit but is close.

BonMallari
02-03-2011, 12:17 AM
Please explain to me where the NYSE "traders" in this day and age, differ from the professional gamblers in Vegas?

Just curious.

UB

cant believe I missed this thread...but I know ONE of the explanations

with the traders they can manipulate ALL the variables...I witnessed this up close and personal when I worked for the Morton's Steakhouse chain. we were a publicly held corporation at the time but Carl Icahn along with one of the board members made a hostile bid for the company to the tune of 160M...all the while Mr Icahn had been accumulating Morton's stock which made him the largest independent stockholder, he also had the funds to leverage the buyout..but what it forced Morton's to do was buy him out to the tune of anywhere between 5-10M depending on different reports and buy up all outstanding shares and take the company private..either way he came out a winner..all perfectly legal

Now with the Vegas sports bookmakers, they too like to control all the variables, and live off the "vig" or the "juice", but contrary to popular opinion they dont always play both sides. if they see a particular mismatch and see the betting public go a certain direction with a line recommended to them by THEIR odds makers, they will let the public keep pulling the line in a direction and clean up when the game goes the opposite way ( under dog upsets i.e Buster Douglas vs Mike Tyson)

the ONE thing the books cant control is the bounce of the ball, and sometimes the officiating but as clearly evidenced by the ex NBA ref that got busted a few yrs back that too is up for speculation

another thing the books know is that certain teams get bet by their rabid fan base regardless of the spread among those used to be the Raiders, Notre Dame, Nebraska, USC,Oscar De LaHoya...lately though the fan favorites are the Packers, Steelers,Floyd Mayweather, NE Patriots,LSU,Florida, Oregon and Boise St...

dnf777
02-03-2011, 04:40 AM
Now with the Vegas sports bookmakers, they too like to control all the variables, and live off the "vig" or the "juice", but contrary to popular opinion they dont always play both sides. if they see a particular mismatch and see the betting public go a certain direction with a line recommended to them by THEIR odds makers, they will let the public keep pulling the line in a direction and clean up when the game goes the opposite way ( under dog upsets i.e Buster Douglas vs Mike Tyson)

the ONE thing the books cant control is the bounce of the ball, and sometimes the officiating but as clearly evidenced by the ex NBA ref that got busted a few yrs back that too is up for speculation

another thing the books know is that certain teams get bet by their rabid fan base regardless of the spread among those used to be the Raiders, Notre Dame, Nebraska, USC,Oscar De LaHoya...lately though the fan favorites are the Packers, Steelers,Floyd Mayweather, NE Patriots,LSU,Florida, Oregon and Boise St...

Don't downplay the potential fraud involved with fantasy leagues. It now becomes very easy to influence outcomes, as all it takes is having someone sit out a game "cause they're hurt", and you sway stats. All it takes is one person on the take, not a whole team, or counting on one person and some luck.

ps...I'm not referring to Cutler, but it could serve as an example.

Uncle Bill
02-03-2011, 09:19 AM
UB, this is why you do the market & stay away from popular stocks. The bride has her own Roth IRA which I have stocked up for her. She is from a family of Public Employees that never took a chance in their life. At this point in time I've tried to get her to look out for herself, I could be gone tomorrow.

Last week she finished an article on stocks I asked her to read & asked me to look at a couple of them. I thought they fit her criteria so we placed a limit order on both. So on the 28th of January this year she bought the 1st one @$13.57 including commission - today it closed @ $18.22. Not bad for 5 days :). The second one has not met the limit but is close.


Please don't take this wrong, Marvin. I'm sure you study these things, and subsequently make good decisions. I do much the same before I commit to jumping in to a good crap game at Vegas.

But as your illustration indicates, the stock market isn't for 'investors' these days...it's for "traders". Get in, get out. Just think how much the day traders and huge electronic traders control the sway of the Dow. A small 'investor' really doesn't have much chance in riding through what used to be normal ups and downs of a particular stock. And God help you if you are on the wrong side when these 'programs' dictate "sell it all".

The stock market as run today, is as volitile and requires more vigilence than the commodity market of 15 years ago. While there are folks like you that can 'play' the market, and feel comfortable dealing in stocks, that to me are nothing more than place bets on the 6,8,and9 on the crap table. If the dice flinger is hot throwing numbers, you can make a bundle. If not, I've lost my bet, but don't have to pay the dealers 'commision'.

My views aren't meant to put down any players in the stock market. It's just that I see it as being no different than a gambling house. "Stocks" are being "played", not to be confused as an investment. And pity the poor souls that get talked into buying bonds in this atmosphere. I can only hope that GM fiasco opened some of their eyes.

And after a couple of cities declare bankruptcy, you can kiss the muni market goodby. It's hard for me to see how this monetary disaster gets turned around. My guess is there will be a lot more lumpy mattresses before the proverbial "little old lady" turns over her bank roll to some smooth talking bond salesman. The Madoffs and siding salesmen are educating 'grandma' quite quickly. The one I'm living with finds more enjoyment in pulling the lever, or pushing the buttons, than 'investing' for any reason.

Good luck, Marvin.

UB

BonMallari
02-03-2011, 09:25 AM
Don't downplay the potential fraud involved with fantasy leagues. It now becomes very easy to influence outcomes, as all it takes is having someone sit out a game "cause they're hurt", and you sway stats. All it takes is one person on the take, not a whole team, or counting on one person and some luck.

ps...I'm not referring to Cutler, but it could serve as an example.

how come the NFL publishes the injury report each week..hmmm, there are so many times the book will take a game off the board, only to find out later that a key player was hurt or suspended and wont suit up..the books also have the greatest distributor of misinformation with a little outfit called ESPN;)

dnf777
02-03-2011, 10:19 AM
how come the NFL publishes the injury report each week..hmmm, there are so many times the book will take a game off the board, only to find out later that a key player was hurt or suspended and wont suit up..the books also have the greatest distributor of misinformation with a little outfit called ESPN;)

I haven't heard any numbers for about two or three years, but at that time they estimated that fantasy football was a billion dollar a year endeavor. I can only imagine what it is now. All the benefits of sports betting, with an opportunity to have a finger on the scale. ;-)

BonMallari
02-03-2011, 10:29 AM
Super Bowl Sunday is traditionally the single biggest betting day in Las Vegas, the proposition bets from the Hilton are about 10 pages long with some of the most absurd prop bets i.e. who will score more points ; the winning team or LeBron James

Marvin S
02-03-2011, 12:27 PM
Please don't take this wrong, Marvin. I'm sure you study these things, and subsequently make good decisions. (i'd like to think I do but it don't always turn out, but at least I have an idea why it happened)I do much the same before I commit to jumping in to a good crap game at Vegas.

But as your illustration indicates, the stock market isn't for 'investors' these days...it's for "traders". Get in, get out. Just think how much the day traders and huge electronic traders control the sway of the Dow. A small 'investor' really doesn't have much chance in riding through what used to be normal ups and downs of a particular stock. And God help you if you are on the wrong side when these 'programs' dictate "sell it all".

The stock market as run today, is as volitile and requires more vigilence than the commodity market of 15 years ago. While there are folks like you that can 'play' the market, and feel comfortable dealing in stocks, that to me are nothing more than place bets on the 6,8,and9 on the crap table. If the dice flinger is hot throwing numbers, you can make a bundle. If not, I've lost my bet, but don't have to pay the dealers 'commision'.

My views aren't meant to put down any players in the stock market. It's just that I see it as being no different than a gambling house. "Stocks" are being "played", not to be confused as an investment. And pity the poor souls that get talked into buying bonds in this atmosphere. I can only hope that GM fiasco opened some of their eyes.

I don't trade all that often as I like to keep more of the risk we have taken for ourselves. Commissions are infinitesimally small so don't figure in the transactions too much, trading is a commodity. You probably leave the dealer a bigger tip on a winning night than I spend in commissions in 6 months ;-).


And after a couple of cities declare bankruptcy, you can kiss the muni market goodby. It's hard for me to see how this monetary disaster gets turned around. My guess is there will be a lot more lumpy mattresses before the proverbial "little old lady" turns over her bank roll to some smooth talking bond salesman. The Madoffs and siding salesmen are educating 'grandma' quite quickly. The one I'm living with finds more enjoyment in pulling the lever, or pushing the buttons, than 'investing' for any reason.

Good luck, Marvin.

UB

This will be the next big catastrophe, & I don't have a comfortable feeling the issue will get fixed. There is a CA bankruptcy winding it's way through the system, Vallejo ????. They are already into it $9.5mil in lawyers fees, it probably would have been better had the parties involved talked :).

Marvin S
02-03-2011, 12:45 PM
I don't gamble, used to fairly successfully. Made around a $1,000 one summer doing the hounds at BHKC when I was at Mines. Again I had a system which managed to hit 9 out of 10 races one night & the Daily Double. I also had a couple of hounds that owed me a lot. When I accompany the bride to the casino I entertain myself people watching, while that can be entertaining there is not a lot of talent to watch & I still have fairly good eyesight. Bon probably does much better in that category ;-).


the ONE thing the books cant control is the bounce of the ball, and sometimes the officiating but as clearly evidenced by the ex NBA ref that got busted a few yrs back that too is up for speculation

Why I enjoyed betting the dogs, until I found out what they do with them when they are old & no longer useful. They are very hard to manipulate, but a telltale sign was a change in weight of 2# or more. The guy running the rabbit had to pay attention as a race would really get screwed up if they just about caught it.

The summer I spent a lot of time at BHKC the star dog was Rushing Roy & he was in a class by himself. I bet Quinella's & the DD. Early foot was a big deal but most who had it did not have the stamina for a 5/16's race. One night a son of RR was in the field & moving up in classification. He was also a little awkward & running out of the 2 box. So I bet him & the dog with early foot in a Quinella figuring that when they hit the 1st turn the RR son would overrun & take out the field but the Early foot dog would be beyond the turn. It happened that way, but the early foot dog only held to second by a nose. I made some money off the 3rd place dog the rest of the summer, he also was quite an animal. Neat thing about Quinella's was 1 winner a night kept you even, 2 put you in the green.