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View Full Version : Egypt - Be careful what you wish for?



BrianW
02-14-2011, 08:14 AM
So now that the military has taken over, parliament has been dissolved and the Constitution has been suspended - de facto martial law.
Elections to be held in 6 months - maybe. The military defended the caretaker government, stocked with Mubarak loyalists, as necessary for now in the interests of "stability" amid the efforts to build a new system, as Egypt's upheaval has splintered into a host of smaller grievances.

On the other hand Mubarak had pledged elections in Sept and constitutional reforms through an independent commission, stepping down afterwatds.

Anyone else think this may be a case of "cutting off your just to spite your face"?

paul young
02-14-2011, 08:20 AM
it's a lot like a dog finally catching the car, methinks.....-Paul

BrianW
02-14-2011, 08:27 AM
it's a lot like a dog finally catching the car, methinks.....-Paul
Now that you've got it, what do you do with it? :confused:

road kill
02-14-2011, 08:28 AM
So now that the military has taken over, parliament has been dissolved and the Constitution has been suspended - de facto martial law.
Elections to be held in 6 months - maybe. The military defended the caretaker government, stocked with Mubarak loyalists, as necessary for now in the interests of "stability" amid the efforts to build a new system, as Egypt's upheaval has splintered into a host of smaller grievances.

On the other hand Mubarak had pledged elections in Sept and constitutional reforms through an independent commission, stepping down afterwatds.

Anyone else think this may be a case of "cutting off your just to spite your face"?

I stand by my "wild card" comment.
A representative (of all people) democracy will never happen.


RK

paul young
02-14-2011, 08:51 AM
Now that you've got it, what do you do with it? :confused:

exactly! there's a cultural standard that goes with a democracy or republic that is totally foreign to them. before they can embrace democracy and have it work for them they need to make some basic changes in their culture. this is why, by and large, nation-building usually fails.

i wish them the best, but i am skeptical....-Paul

Granddaddy
02-14-2011, 10:13 AM
I stand by my "wild card" comment.
A representative (of all people) democracy will never happen.


RK

A representative democracy in the middle east is nothing more than a convenient (no armed revolt) step to Islamic totalitarianism where there has never been a culture or exposure to anything but dictatorships by force. Iran holds elections and calls itself a democracy. Jordan elects a parliment, as do most middle east countries. The historic choices seem to be either secular dictator secured by a loyal & strong military or a move to "democracy" that ends in an Islamic theocracy. I'd love to see a true democracy but I don't think the region would know one if it was handed to them. Egypt has the best chance, given its western exposure & level of educated citizens.

Goose
02-14-2011, 10:15 AM
They're flingin' tear gas and rubber bullets in Bahrain today. It isn't just Egypt and democracy isn't the answer. QE has turned into QE2 and we'll go to QE3 then QE4 then QE5 then QEmillion as the Chairman of the Criminal Reserve along with his central banker friends across the globe sodomize the 'folk'.

Anybody seen the price of corn or sugar or wheat or cotton lately? I ain't no farmer but I can read a chart. The keynesians will tell you food inflation isn't their fault that there are other factors involved. The Ber-Nank wouldn't care anyway. He's all about printing. Screw the 'folk'. Let 'em eat fake, plastic rice. That should fill their bellies.

We live in Cuba now.

Blackstone
02-14-2011, 11:25 AM
All we can do is wish them the best with changes to come. Hopefully, whatever government ends up in charge will be better than what they had, and hopefully friendly toward the U.S. as well.

dnf777
02-14-2011, 11:40 AM
I guess my question would be, what role, if any, should the US play in helping to establish a new government in Egypt?

Personally, I don't think we should play any role. Its not our baby, but I'm sure others will disagree.

I suspect that we'll be very passive, and hands off, as long as things are in flux, or headed towards a pro-American system. If anti-American forces start to gain control, I suspect we'll start to "play".

road kill
02-14-2011, 11:48 AM
A representative democracy in the middle east is nothing more than a convenient (no armed revolt) step to Islamic totalitarianism where there has never been a culture or exposure to anything but dictatorships by force. Iran holds elections and calls itself a democracy. Jordan elects a parliment, as do most middle east countries. The historic choices seem to be either secular dictator secured by a loyal & strong military or a move to "democracy" that ends in an Islamic theocracy. I'd love to see a true democracy but I don't think the region would know one if it was handed to them. Egypt has the best chance, given its western exposure & level of educated citizens.

There is your wild card!!!!!

They will allow a democracy as long as women and Jews aren't represented.


RK

Granddaddy
02-14-2011, 12:55 PM
All we can do is wish them the best with changes to come. Hopefully, whatever government ends up in charge will be better than what they had, and hopefully friendly toward the U.S. as well.

So we just sit back & let the middle east countries where we secure 40%+ of our oil to turn us into a 3rd world country overnight? We hope but do nothing else? At the same time our government has banned/is banning/de-funding new drilling, new nuclear facilities, hydrogen power development, clean gas & coal development while it is estimated we have over a 100 yr supply of fossil fuels available to us within our borders laying untapped. Genius! :rolleyes:

dnf777
02-14-2011, 01:08 PM
So we just sit back & let the middle east countries where we secure 40%+ of our oil to turn us into a 3rd world country overnight? :

There's a prime example of invalid reductio ad absurdum!

To repsond in kind would go something like, "so we spend another $3 trillion of our treasury and send a couple hundred thousand American troops onto their soil or else have Islamic law take over the world and control the oil supply?"

Kind of silly, eh? Is that what you're saying? Well, I don't think Blackstone was saying anything remotely related to the translation you provided, either.

sandyg
02-14-2011, 01:32 PM
There's a prime example of invalid reductio ad absurdum!

To repsond in kind would go something like, "so we spend another $3 trillion of our treasury and send a couple hundred thousand American troops onto their soil or else have Islamic law take over the world and control the oil supply?"

Kind of silly, eh? Is that what you're saying? Well, I don't think Blackstone was saying anything remotely related to the translation you provided, either.

Here's an even primer example of invalid reductio ad absurdum! (a form of argument (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument) in which a proposition (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposition_%28philosophy%29) is disproven by following its implications logically to an absurd consequence.)

Isn't it interesting that states with the worst public schools are all vote rebublican? (Nebraska, Idaho, Miss.) I see your point, and understand why republicans want to dismantle public education. A stupid populace is an easily controlled one. Its right out of 1984. Next we'll see people trying to ban or rewrite literature such as Tom Sawyer....oops, already there!

dnf777
02-14-2011, 01:37 PM
Here's an even primer example of invalid reductio ad absurdum! (a form of argument (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument) in which a proposition (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposition_%28philosophy%29) is disproven by following its implications logically to an absurd consequence.)

You don't need to provide a definition. I know quite well what reductio ad absurdum means; that's why I used it. I also know that your example is completely disconnected from that definition. Just because you can look a word up on google dictionary, does NOT mean that you know how to use it.

sandyg
02-14-2011, 02:08 PM
You don't need to provide a definition. I know quite well what reductio ad absurdum means; that's why I used it. I also know that your example is completely disconnected from that definition. Just because you can look a word up on google dictionary, does NOT mean that you know how to use it.

I didn't provide the definition for your benefit. I provided it for all of the stupid unwashed republicans that you banter back and forth with on this forum. Of course an erudite MOTRI such as yourself knows the meaning; hell, you probably invented it!

road kill
02-14-2011, 02:12 PM
I didn't provide the definition for your benefit. I provided it for all of the stupid unwashed republicans that you banter back and forth with on this forum. Of course an erudite MOTRI such as yourself knows the meaning; hell, you probably invented it!

He is most definitely the personification of the meaning.
Since nothing is ever original from this source, it must have been overheard or used on him by someone else.


RK

Granddaddy
02-14-2011, 02:12 PM
There's a prime example of invalid reductio ad absurdum!

To repsond in kind would go something like, "so we spend another $3 trillion of our treasury and send a couple hundred thousand American troops onto their soil or else have Islamic law take over the world and control the oil supply?"

Kind of silly, eh? Is that what you're saying? Well, I don't think Blackstone was saying anything remotely related to the translation you provided, either.

Actually your reponse fits the definition of reductio ad absurdum. I gave you a strong hint as to what my response would be but you went off on some wild tangent. I don't think there is quick answer to solve the middle east problem (we've worked hard to get ourselves into this problem, just based upon playing politics) but I think to sit back and just hope is akin to burying your head in the sand and hope the sky doesn't fall in. I think we should attempt to influence decisions in the middle east to our favor where reasonably possible using reasonable means. But primarily & most importantly, I think we should be moving as swiftly as possible to becoming energy independent, that includes the obvious; we should be drilling yesterday in Alaska, off the east coast, in the gulf & developing shale technology, we should be building more nuclear energy plants, we should be developing hydrogen technology, we should be developing clean gas & coals technology. These are the obvious sources of energy which our country has in abundance and these are the sources of energy that will get us to energy independence any time in the next 50 yrs.

dnf777
02-14-2011, 02:25 PM
Actually your reponse fits the definition of reductio ad absurdum.

thank you. It was an example, and was supposed to. Maybe sandyq can learn from it, instead of insulting everybody. I never meant to insult anyone, but he certainly took it that way, and returned fire.

I appreciate your reply. its nice to have a meaningful discussion. Not sure why RK is lobbing insults again, which is out of character for him. I didn't call anyone any names. if using a latin phrase which is in common english usage is somehow insulting to him, I don't know what to tell him, but would appreciate if he and RK would keep things civil. We could all digress into name calling, but then the janitor would be conscripted into action again, and he really doesn't need or want that.

Again, its good talking with you. It will be interesting to see how we deal with Egypt and any other uprisings in that region.

dave f

BrianW
02-14-2011, 07:33 PM
It's probably too late now but I think we need an unofficial "official" group to counteract the efforts of the Crisis Group. They've had a huge head start and advantage in funding but according to some polls 82% of Egyptians dislike the US. Official diplomatic efforts from Hillary/State will be like pizzin in the wind. I really don't think Hillary has much interest in covering PBO's behind anyway. Could make an intersting issue in '12 if he's 'the man who lost the Mid East"

road kill
02-14-2011, 07:37 PM
It's probably too late now but I think we need an unofficial "official" group to counteract the efforts of the Crisis Group. They've had a huge head start and advantage in funding but according to some polls 82% of Egyptians dislike the US. Official diplomatic efforts from Hillary/State will be like pizzin in the wind. I really don't think Hillary has much interest in covering PBO's behind anyway. Could make an intersting issue in '12 if he's 'the man who lost the Mid East"



I am sure the Arab nations will listen to Hillary.

Where is her burkha????


RK

Steve Hester
02-14-2011, 08:58 PM
exactly! there's a cultural standard that goes with a democracy or republic that is totally foreign to them. before they can embrace democracy and have it work for them they need to make some basic changes in their culture. this is why, by and large, nation-building usually fails.

i wish them the best, but i am skeptical....-Paul

This is a good point. When will America ever learn that democracy is a concept as foreign to other parts of the world as Martians would be. Is it ego, self-righteousness, or just plain ignorance on the part of the plicy makers??

Blackstone
02-14-2011, 09:12 PM
So we just sit back & let the middle east countries where we secure 40%+ of our oil to turn us into a 3rd world country overnight? We hope but do nothing else? At the same time our government has banned/is banning/de-funding new drilling, new nuclear facilities, hydrogen power development, clean gas & coal development while it is estimated we have over a 100 yr supply of fossil fuels available to us within our borders laying untapped. Genius! :rolleyes:

I don't know how you jumped to such conclusions from such an innocuous statement. I was only wishing the people of that country well. I was not laying out a plan for some sort of action or inaction on our part, so I have no idea what you have your panties all in a wad about.

roseberry
02-14-2011, 10:13 PM
dang that was latin? i am almost certain one of my hispanic roofers called me one of those just this morning!

my wife is a nurse and works with "caring muslim physicians" and says, "you just don't know moderate muslims the way i do. i say, "yeah these are great guys they have been in my home and i am ok with them!"

i tell her "honey, the problem is when there is 51 of them and 49 of you, you are going to have a mulah for mayor, or councilman, or congressman and then president." time and time again when they finally get to vote for themselves, yassir is out and hamas and hezbolah comes in.

democracy isn't gonna help U.S. concerns in the middle east. yes even george bush was mistaken on that one. all it will do is put terrorists in elected positions.

i am with granddaddy! i wont be going to the arctic national wildlife refuge tomorrow, but i gotta stop at citgo before breakfast.

john mc

dnf777
02-15-2011, 07:05 AM
dang that was latin? i am almost certain one of my hispanic roofers called me one of those just this morning!



Hey, times are tough. He probably roofs by day, and coaches HS debate by night... ;)

Granddaddy
02-15-2011, 07:09 AM
I don't know how you jumped to such conclusions from such an innocuous statement. I was only wishing the people of that country well. I was not laying out a plan for some sort of action or inaction on our part, so I have no idea what you have your panties all in a wad about.

Not much of a jump. Your post #8 indicated "All we can do is wish..." & then hope. I'll say again we depend upon the middle east for 40% of our oil. We have to do more than just wish them well & hope. Seems obvious to me. Currently, without that supply, we become a 3rd world country over night. Unfortunately, I think all we are doing is wishing & hoping, both in terms of the stability of the middle east and in terms of becoming energy independent.

road kill
02-15-2011, 07:58 AM
How long before there is a "power grab" by a powerful Muslim leader and all hell breaks loose??

The confusion ripens the opportunity.


RK

Blackstone
02-15-2011, 03:07 PM
Not much of a jump. Your post #8 indicated "All we can do is wish..." & then hope. I'll say again we depend upon the middle east for 40% of our oil. We have to do more than just wish them well & hope. Seems obvious to me. Currently, without that supply, we become a 3rd world country over night. Unfortunately, I think all we are doing is wishing & hoping, both in terms of the stability of the middle east and in terms of becoming energy independent.

I donít think most people took my comment that way. I was not trying to lay out a plan for stability in the middle east. I had no idea anyone would interpret it in the strictest literally sense. Perhaps, I would have included a disclaimer.