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Buzz
04-23-2011, 05:12 PM
Listening to right wing radio, I hear lots of concern about the dollar and what it's doing to commodity prices. There are some who ask, where were they when the real devaluation took place?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=gB

road kill
04-23-2011, 05:49 PM
Listening to right wing radio, I hear lots of concern about the dollar and what it's doing to commodity prices. There are some who ask, where were they when the real devaluation took place?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=gB

I know where I was and when.

If you can remember (I know my memory ain't what it once was) I was bitchin' about it here some years ago.

I got made fun of (as usual) and told it meant nothing.


I disagree..........it means something now and it meant something then.


RK

M&K's Retrievers
04-23-2011, 06:33 PM
I just know that I don't have as many of them as I used to and the ones I do have aren't worth much.

caryalsobrook
04-23-2011, 06:39 PM
Listening to right wing radio, I hear lots of concern about the dollar and what it's doing to commodity prices. There are some who ask, where were they when the real devaluation took place?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=gB

I don't know what the trade weighted exchaneg is but I DO KNOW what the price of commodities has done in the last 2 years. Silver about $13/oz. two years ago, now about $45/oz. Cotton about 70lcents/lb now over $1.60/lb.. How many more examples do you want. By the way weren't you the one talking about a deflationary economy a year ago????????

Losthwy
04-23-2011, 09:03 PM
A deflated dollar=higher prices for imported goods. Your post reminds me of a post I made a few years ago about US debt and China buying that debt. Unfortunately it's no longer in the archives. Not one reply agreed it was a problem then.

YardleyLabs
04-24-2011, 06:17 AM
I know where I was and when.

If you can remember (I know my memory ain't what it once was) I was bitchin' about it here some years ago.

I got made fun of (as usual) and told it meant nothing.


I disagree..........it means something now and it meant something then.


RK
Interesting memory. You weren't a member of the forum when the big devaluation was happening.....:D

road kill
04-24-2011, 06:28 AM
Interesting memory. You weren't a member of the forum when the big devaluation was happening.....:D

Interesting observation, but I did mention that it was my biggest complaint about George Busgh, speaking in retrospect.
I didn't say I commented on it at day 1, I said I commented on it.
It has been a long process.

But exactly the kind of response I have grown to expect.

Got any other nits to pik??

I will search and see if I can find the post, then you can say "oh, yeah, now I remember!":rolleyes:


Nice try though..........to what end I am not sure.
Maybe to prove my point that us old guys don't have the memory we used to.

Are you saying you have no recollection of me ever mentioning that issue?


RK

Uncle Bill
04-24-2011, 01:54 PM
That chart was related to the collapse of the Y2K era. I knew it well. Got skinned almost to the bone in that dot-com disaster. Fortuanely had enough left over to get into the metals that are doing well today. Got out of the market completely, and got rid of lots of anxiety. Smiled a lot during the '03-'08 period, while I sat the sidelines as the ship was sinking.

I applaud those that continued to fight it out and are still solvent. Just don't have the 'stomach' for that anymore. Let the institutions play their games, because that's about all that's left...it certainly can't be called 'investing' anymore.

UB

Marvin S
04-24-2011, 05:33 PM
Listening to right wing radio, I hear lots of concern about the dollar and what it's doing to commodity prices. There are some who ask, where were they when the real devaluation took place?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=gB

The time line you have posted is much too short to create anything meaningful regarding what happens.

IMO, if you are buying a local product made locally there is little change. If you buy content from a country that is perceived to have a stronger dollar you will pay more.

I think that countries perceive when others are spending & will print their way out of that situation.

Again IMO, had the stimulus created infrastructure I would think the dollar would have strengthened, but the chart does not bear that out.

The Farmer paper says our home grown commodities are flying out of the granary because of the %age differential. So it makes me wonder why are we subsidizing their (the farmers) lifestyle?

Marvin S
04-24-2011, 05:47 PM
That chart was related to the collapse of the Y2K era. I knew it well. Got skinned almost to the bone in that dot-com disaster. Fortuanely had enough left over to get into the metals that are doing well today. Got out of the market completely, and got rid of lots of anxiety. Smiled a lot during the '03-'08 period, while I sat the sidelines as the ship was sinking. UB

UB - That's funny, for a different reason. Other than ELNK, bought on my son's recommend, we owned no d-coms. Participated in a training group that featured a financial advisor who had done the Blodgett thing. He managed to make a lot of them 25%ers :(. They knew I was a self advisor so asked me how I was doing, 15-17% all the way through. After the second year of those returns I noticed that the group was full more often so there wasn't a space for the mutt & I, even though my arm was still good.

Sold our AU stock about a year ago, were we holding GDX as we should have it would now be gone also. I'm seriously thinking about the coin collection going as I remember all too well what happened to the Hunt Brothers when they tried to corner the AG market. Just to many variables. AU is of a price now some countries may be thinking of selling their reserves, again IMO.

Buzz
04-24-2011, 08:20 PM
The time line you have posted is much too short to create anything meaningful regarding what happens.



This is the best I can do right now, slightly different mix of currencies.


Averages of daily figures. A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the country of issue.
Major currency index includes the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden. For more information about trade-weighted indexes see http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2005/winter05_index.pdf.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/TWEXM_Max_630_378.png

Marvin S
04-27-2011, 12:02 PM
This is the best I can do right now, slightly different mix of currencies.



http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/TWEXM_Max_630_378.png




The graph indicates this: in 91 the mode was down, 74, 02 the mode was updown & 80, 82, 08/09 the mode was up. I certainly would not make an investment based on that sort of inconclusive data. Too bad we don't have an economist to tell us what it all means, as if they would know before the fact :).