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IowaBayDog
01-03-2012, 08:50 PM
My precinct.

Santorum 15
Romney 6
Paul 2
Newt 2
Bachmann 2
Perry 1



Overall so far
Santorum 26%
Paul 23%
Romney 18%
Newt 16%
Perry 8%
Bachman 6%

PRELIMINARY RESULTS ----- NOT FINAL UNTIL 9pm Central

MDowney
01-03-2012, 10:09 PM
Atlantic ward 5 results:
Santorum 28
Gingrich 24
Romney 22
Paul 7
Perry 5
Bachmann 3
Huntsman 0

IowaBayDog
01-03-2012, 10:33 PM
Santorum 24%
Romney 24%
Paul 22%
Gingrich 13%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 6%

Numbers look pretty solid now, 50%ish precincts reported.

Gerry Clinchy
01-03-2012, 11:19 PM
Really surprised that Santorum did THIS well. He was the one who made it a point to actually visit all the counties. Seems like that had some real impact. Looking at a recent list just a few minutes ago, he had numbers over 30% in a number of counties. Who woulda thunk it at the time of the first debate?

BonMallari
01-03-2012, 11:28 PM
the social conservatives got out and voted tonight

M&K's Retrievers
01-03-2012, 11:39 PM
Bachman doesn't sound like she's going to drop out at only 5%. Wonder where her support will go if she were to quit?

1tulip
01-04-2012, 01:44 AM
My hubby listened to Santorum's speech and said "I think I've found my candidate." Told him to register for our caucuses so he can vote on Feb. 4th. There is going be a "straw poll" here next Saturday and I intend to go. Should be fun.

BonMallari
01-04-2012, 06:08 AM
all I know is that the pre caucus pollsters got it wrong

road kill
01-04-2012, 06:25 AM
What does the final tally tell you?



RK

Hew
01-04-2012, 08:12 AM
I was pleasantly surprised by Santorum's finish. Romney's win is not a good sign for the other candidates. If they can't beat him in a mid-west caucus state they don't have a prayer in the east coast primary states where money and organization mean so much. The Paulbots have to be bitterly disappointed. Stick a fork in him. The GOP and Romney need to tread lightly and not dance on his grave (bam! two metaphors for the price of one) or they risk having the Paulbots hole up in their singlewides with a couple of sixers of PBR watching "X-File" re-runs on election day in Nov.

duk4me
01-04-2012, 08:54 AM
What does the final tally tell you?



RK
Unfortunately the tally tells me unless there is an immediate seperation by one of these candidates we are looking at four more years of BS government.

M&K's Retrievers
01-04-2012, 10:07 AM
Bachmann and Perry are canceling scheduled trips to SC. Bachmann has scheduled a presser today. Looks like two are dropping out. It will be interesting to hear who they endorse and where their support actually goes. My guess is Santorum. I don't see their supporters going to RP.

Gerry Clinchy
01-04-2012, 11:01 AM
OMG! Mitt only won by 8 votes! Hardly a "victory" when it was Santorum that was only 8 votes behind, if one compares the media coverage given to Mitt v. Santorum. Paul behind them by about 4000 votes.

IowaBayDog
01-04-2012, 11:13 AM
OMG! Mitt only won by 8 votes! Hardly a "victory" when it was Santorum that was only 8 votes behind, if one compares the media coverage given to Mitt v. Santorum. Paul behind them by about 4000 votes.


Mitt was polling in 2nd/3rd so he did better than he expected. He spent millions on negative advertising towards Newt, it was relentless. Paul had an agressive negative robocall campaign, he actually gave out Santorum's personal cell phone number and urged callers to flood his phone.

I was very surprised by Santorum, I follow this stuff and really didn't see much of him at all in ads or calls. His boots on the ground approach certainly worked. Didn't vote for him this time but I would support him over Romney. Still would like to see Newt, they get along so Santorum/Newt ticket would work for me too. Biden vs. Newt in a debate would be good entertainment.

BonMallari
01-04-2012, 02:48 PM
What does the final tally tell you?



RK

1. every vote counts

2. lots of different types of conservatives out there

3. it was an open primary so the indy's and mods went to RP

4. the staunch conservatives went elsewhere

5. Bachmann is done, Perry should be,Newt is hurt

6. New Hampshire results are already a foregone conclusion

Eric Johnson
01-04-2012, 03:46 PM
I'm originally from Iowa. From when I last lived there, I would have 3 things to offer.

1. The most common thought in Iowa today is "We're glad to see the backs of them."

2. If the idiots in the media don't want to learn how the causus system works, we'll put on a show for them.

3. Does anyone know when the Iowa delegates to the Republican Convention will be chosen and by what? Hint: It's not yesterday and it's not by the precinct caucuses.

The concept of the Iowa caucus is a holdover from the days when Iowa was really an agricultural state. The original purpose was oriented to Representatives and state offices and as a result, they're held every two years. To participate in a grassroots event it had to be held when the farmers didn't need to be in the fields. Further, since farmers had to walk or ride buggies to the meetings, they were held just once.

The caucus is essentially a straw poll that elects folks to a county convention. The county conventions elect delegates to both the District (House districts) and to the state-wide Presidential conventions.

As early as the caucuses are held, Iowa is perhaps the last state to elect it's convention delegates....mid-June. The caucus is just the start of the process, not the end of it.

Oh yea. What I forgot to mention is that the precinct caucuses are the start of the development of the Iowa party platforms. The media gets so lost in this vote for the candidates that they forget to mention this.

Eric

Uncle Bill
01-04-2012, 03:59 PM
1. every vote counts

2. lots of different types of conservatives out there

3. it was an open primary so the indy's and mods went to RP

4. the staunch conservatives went elsewhere

5. Bachmann is done, Perry should be,Newt is hurt

6. New Hampshire results are already a foregone conclusion


For us Tea Party conservatives, what is happening is quite depressing, but typical. With as many conservatives splitting up the vote count, it stands to reason that a moderate would be able to garner the majority of the votes.

Iowa doesn't really have that many conservative voters. First of all, they are mostly liberal Democrats, and those that aren't are primarily moderate Republicans at best. Not very many that are feisty enough to get truly excited about repealing everything Obama. Other than a few friends that I personally know in that state, like Dan who IS a true conservative, the biggest numbers are GATGA types that aren't out to stir up anything. If that weren't the case, how can the low numbers of 'involved voters' be seen in any other light?

Subsequently, as a conservative that agrees with Michelle Bachmann who stated we are on the road to socialism unless Obama and his regime are defeated, I will be left to hold my nose once again in order to vote against what the fools of this country have and continue to support.

While the primary isn't totally over, (New Hampshire is no longer a state with any value, other than to remind us conservatives how much we despise the east coast RINOs and elitists), conservatives are left once again to lick their wounds, while being told we don't understand what makes this nation great, or the constitution, or what we believe the founders meant when we began.

NO, the elite statists will TELL us what is good for this nation. And because they scream louder about us being marxists, they are never worried about their own actions being suspect by the MSP, because they are all in cahoots with each other...it's all one big cabal known by us in fly-over country as the Washington beltway.

Am I pissed??? YOU BET YOUR SWEET ASS I AM!!! Not because of the Iowa caucases. They aren't the end-all, but they ARE the harbinger that tells me the elite have had their way once again. The east coast liberal RINOs that are in the same camp as the MSP, and like when McCain was foisted upon us, they are selecting what will be their candidate, and BY GOD ALL OF US PEONS HAD BETTER FALL IN LINE, OR WE WILL GET ANOTHER 4 YEARS OF OBAMA!!!

Has anyone ever considered the case for unintended circumstances? What if the real evangelicals don't come out as a protest against the Mormon the 'moderates' have ordained as their candidate? Or, mebbe the RP crowd is angry their drugs will never be legalized with a Mormon at the helm, so they decide to bypass the election in protest. Or the Tea Party decides since their values mean nothing to the current ruling junta among the elite east coast Republicans running the party these days, why should we continue to support their slightly different way of spending than what is being done by the present oligarchy?

Aw yes, those unintended circumstances. Just a reminder...voters seldom get what they want, but they always get what they deserve.

UB

Jason Glavich
01-04-2012, 04:00 PM
Biden vs. Newt in a debate would be good entertainment.

That would be worthwile PPV! Just add it to the end of UFC 250 or whatever number they are on now.

HPL
01-04-2012, 04:12 PM
I know that they are early tests of the electorate, but I really don't get why so much hoopla is given to Iowa (6 electoral votes) and NH (4 electoral votes). Folks dropping out before they even get to the states that have the most effect on the final vote. California, Illinois, New York, and Texas should hold the first four primaries. That might give a candidate a better idea of whether to stay or quit.

Lisa Van Loo
01-04-2012, 04:13 PM
Check Santorum's legislative record carefully.

road kill
01-04-2012, 05:17 PM
Is Gingrich done?

Is Paul Done?

Did Santorum's showing display a need for someone else?



RK

Hew
01-04-2012, 05:28 PM
Check Santorum's legislative record carefully.
I seem to recall something about him trying to pass a law about wanting to convert still-squirming puppies into bio-degradable napalm to be dropped on every hobby-breeder's house. In the winter. So they'd have to run out of their burning houses and into the snow in their nightgowns. Where PETA and HSUS members could pelt them with bio-degradable rotten fruit. While Santorum laughed. Or something along those lines. My memory's a tad fuzzy sometimes.

BonMallari
01-04-2012, 06:56 PM
Is Gingrich done?

may not be done but he is pizzzed at the negative ads from Romney and RP, and his style of negative consists of the cheap shot inuendos at other candidates nad trying to act like he is above it all..if he doesnt win in SoCarolina or a big second place then he is done

Is Paul Done?

not the result he had hoped for...but the real test will be in a closed primary, I think he will always finish third in any contest, always going to be a faction of the ideologues that want to be contrarian

Did Santorum's showing display a need for someone else?

yes and no....Santorum is the candidate of the hour, but as meteoric as his rise, he will flame out too...the social conservatives are trying to change the discussion, and even though the issues are important, they need to learn from Mitch Daniels when he told them that they need to WIN the election first then make the changes in social laws



RK

my responses....

Nor_Cal_Angler
01-04-2012, 07:13 PM
I know that they are early tests of the electorate, but I really don't get why so much hoopla is given to Iowa (6 electoral votes) and NH (4 electoral votes). Folks dropping out before they even get to the states that have the most effect on the final vote. California, Illinois, New York, and Texas should hold the first four primaries. That might give a candidate a better idea of whether to stay or quit.

It isn't so much abut the electoral votes each of those states have...it is the sway they hold over the rest of the nation...

How many times have you been thinking about an apple....

Only to find two of your friends eating an orange....

you say to yourself, you know that orange looks good, I think I'll have an orange today...

It's the same thing....

It isn't supposed to give a candidate a better idea of whether to say or not, it is to give the voters the chance to stay with their origional plan or see that their neighbor is going one way and help them (you) decide if you want to go that way also.

Jake

BonMallari
01-04-2012, 07:30 PM
It isn't so much abut the electoral votes each of those states have...it is the sway they hold over the rest of the nation...

How many times have you been thinking about an apple....

Only to find two of your friends eating an orange....

you say to yourself, you know that orange looks good, I think I'll have an orange today...

It's the same thing....

It isn't supposed to give a candidate a better idea of whether to say or not, it is to give the voters the chance to stay with their origional plan or see that their neighbor is going one way and help them (you) decide if you want to go that way also.

Jake

Jake : you are so right (correct)..people love to jump on the bandwagon of the front runner, just so they can say they voted for the winner...I honestly think that is what happened with BHO, so many got swept up in the hype, because the media sold him as the next big thing

I also think if someone NEW got in the race now they would be an instant contender

the fact that so many UNDECIDED/ UNCOMMITTED chose at the last minute, scares the living daylights out of me, shows me they can easily be swayed and talked into something

IowaBayDog
01-04-2012, 08:42 PM
1. every vote counts

3. it was an open primary so the indy's and mods went to RP



Bon,
Iowa is NOT an open primary, only registered Republicans could vote, but you could register onsite. It really isn't even a primary, it is simply a straw poll that is taken during the caucus, the caucus is to nominate and elect delegates and propose platform ideas.

In some areas I know there was a big push of former Obama voters that were registering GOP to vote Ron Paul, however given the turnout numbers I don't think that was too prevalent. It was only slightly higher than 2008.

BonMallari
01-04-2012, 08:46 PM
Bon,
Iowa is NOT an open primary, only registered Republicans could vote, but you could register onsite. It really isn't even a primary, it is simply a straw poll that is taken during the caucus, the caucus is to nominate and elect delegates and propose platform ideas.

In some areas I know there was a big push of former Obama voters that were registering GOP to vote Ron Paul, however given the turnout numbers I don't think that was too prevalent. It was only slightly higher than 2008.

well that explains Franco :razz::razz:

Nor_Cal_Angler
01-04-2012, 09:01 PM
Jake : you are so right (correct)..people love to jump on the bandwagon of the front runner, just so they can say they voted for the winner...I honestly think that is what happened with BHO, so many got swept up in the hype, because the media sold him as the next big thing

I also think if someone NEW got in the race now they would be an instant contender

the fact that so many UNDECIDED/ UNCOMMITTED chose at the last minute, scares the living daylights out of me, shows me they can easily be swayed and talked into something

Scary for sure!!!!

Jake

HPL
01-05-2012, 01:18 AM
It isn't so much abut the electoral votes each of those states have...it is the sway they hold over the rest of the nation...

How many times have you been thinking about an apple....

Only to find two of your friends eating an orange....

you say to yourself, you know that orange looks good, I think I'll have an orange today...

It's the same thing....

It isn't supposed to give a candidate a better idea of whether to say or not, it is to give the voters the chance to stay with their origional plan or see that their neighbor is going one way and help them (you) decide if you want to go that way also.

Jake
Not much of a bandwagon jumper. More likely to be contrarian, grit my teeth, dig my heels in, and go against the crowd. Learned a long time ago that about 75% of the general populace is in the lower 3/4 of the intelligence scale and don't really want to be following them. Like to think that most of my positions are based on my own information gathering with some input from some very smart people whose opinions I respect.

charly_t
01-05-2012, 01:10 PM
.................................................. ... with some input from some very smart people whose opinions I respect.

And that is why I like this forum. I believe that we have some smart people posting here and I like the links posted most of the time.

road kill
01-05-2012, 03:50 PM
I think;

RP is done (to me he never started)
Newt is done (taking someone with him, showing the real Newt)
Romney is status quo (ridin' the storm out)
Santorum is interesting.
I am not sure if he is the guy, but the vote shows that a fair amount of people don't want the guy who lost to McCain!!!!!:shock:

Is there someone else lurking??

Perry, 3 reasons I don't like him (I forgot the 3rd!!;-))
Bachman (has a true conservative message, but doesn't articulate it to the masses)


The plot thickens...........


RK

BonMallari
01-05-2012, 04:37 PM
I still think had Herman Cain not caved in to the accusations that he would have shown well...whatever happened to ALL those women, including the one that hired Allred..hmm

Still think he brought a fresh approach to the table

M&K's Retrievers
01-05-2012, 06:48 PM
I still think had Herman Cain not caved in to the accusations that he would have shown well...whatever happened to ALL those women, including the one that hired Allred..hmm

Still think he brought a fresh approach to the table

The cash cow went to the slaughter house.

Gerry Clinchy
01-05-2012, 10:31 PM
The cash cow went to the slaughter house.

And now that he is no longer a candidate, the media is no longer interested.

Ironic, Cain pulling out of the race, but the cabosh on those women making a big bundle on selling their stories for media consumption.

Even if innocent, for his family, Cain probably did the right thing.