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A good measure of are we better off today than we were 4 years ago will be the market. The Dow closed @ 9,525.28, the S & P @ 1,005.25 & the Nasdaq @ 1,780.36 on E Day 2008. Using your crystal ball where do you think the market will be 4 years hence. Remember that prior to the housing meltdown the market sat at 14K+, 1 Year ago.
It's 2 days after the election & the market is still going down. Apparently the people who run the country (meaning those who work & invest) don't have a lot of hope.
Just playing with the calculator shows that if the market were to have gone up 80% from it's close on E Day that would equal 17,163 or a measly 5% per year return over the Dow high 1 year ago.
I think the time up to the election it will be down, but the days following the next election will see an upswing of the market. That is not to say it will keep going down for 4 years, just that in the end it will be lower at the end of BHO's term
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin S
Don't believe you can predict with any accuracy...just guess. Like the "scientists" predicting global warming. Like the weathermen 'predicting' 48 hours ago that we'd have a 'chance' of rain and snow, along with strong winds on Wednesday. As we neared yesterday, they suddenly discovered there was a strong blizzard in the offing.
At 10:30 PM I let the dogs out to air. They were just making footprints on the deck. At 6:30 this morning my back door was blocked by a 5' drift. The sliding deck door had 2 1/2' against it. Needed to shovel an opening into the 4' snowbank, so the dogs could get outside.
It's my guess, Marvin, that the Dow will sink below 4K before we have any "real" return to a wannabe bull market. There will be many ups and downs, and sucker shifts along the way, but if the money you have in "the market" is what you will need to live on soon, better be into a program of selling on the peaks, and whittling down your exposure.
If your status is such that selling just means more for the IRS, there are other ways of moving those funds or equities to something with less volitility.
Not saying there won't be 'buying' opportunities. BUT, it's really not an amateurs playing court. Only the saavy that can watch their 'investment' daily should be messing around in this market.
Not sure I wouldn't be investing in several cases of shells, and new guns. Not collector types, just plain vanilla types.
And I'd certainly have a few bags of pre-65 siver coins...dimes, quarters, halves...nothing with numismatic value. Same is true of gold dollars...Maple Leafs, Kuggerands, and US Eagles. Not a good time in my view to be starting into any of the numismatic stuff. That again requires special knowledge, and players that watch what's going on at all times.
FWIW, this is not 'advice'...just suggestions. My license expired long ago. I don't even play a broker on TV. As LVL once admonished me, I should KNOW something before giving advice...and I agree with her. All I KNOW is what I learned working in the industry for about 3 years, and "playing the games" for about 50. And I'll be willing to admit, I've lost more than a couple of small fortunes, but that's another story altogether.
Caveat Emptor...and I do mean that with capital letters.
UB
That's something else we have in common. I was buying good, but I wasn't bewareing very good! You proly lost more than me but if I think about my losses for more than 5 minutes is a row, I start puking!Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncle Bill
P.S. The last 2 days have been kinda hard to take too.:( DOW down another 443 today
And I foresee that trend continuing. Of course there will be some that will 'jump' in, and ride a short spike, but the overall curve will continue down for some time. I fear a 1930 type situation, when those poor souls thought the bottom was there, but it turned out to be a sucker bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Arturo
If what you have now riding is worrisome, move it into a less volatile area...may not have a return worth a damn, but if it preserves principle until you can get it out, it's about the only safe haven left.
Talk to your financial advisor, Art. If he is a friend, he can advise something safe you can rollover into. And if it's IRA stuff, you can use some of it to even purchase some metals that to my way of thinking are still the best way to protect against a complete collapse, or a form of depression. Don't think it will come to that, but I'm not betting it won't either.
It's almost as bad as getting into a 'hold-em' game, and your sittin' on a short stack eh?
Good luck,
UB
Well, I got my newsletters & they didn't say much, so I'm going to crystal ball it! A lot of people are in the market whether they realize it or not. Many only through their pension funds. One of the more selfish generations in our society is about to retire & they are restless about having their creature comforts.
The D's want to continue their days in charge, while some of the leadership has designs on a full fledged socialistic slant, that won't win 2 years from now & definitely will move them out in 4. As many are conscious of the market, it is no longer a foreign planet flying over. We came out of the Nifty Fifty, the S & L fiasco, the dot coms, in some manner though I think it will be some time before we see 5K on the Nasdaq. Some may remember when the Japanese were buying all our Golf Courses & Namesake buildings & there was the concern that other countries were going to be telling us what to do.
The freshly minted POTUS (as of January) will signal how he will govern by the appointments made. We should hear a lot by Xmas. The critical appointments are Treasury & the person who will head the commission on reforming the financial industry. If Paul Volcker heads the commission there is a excellent chance we will see recommendations that will further the interests of this nation. It is also conditional on Congress adopting the recommendations. Volcker was the last person to head the Fed that was in tune with sound monetary policy.
I also have a lot of faith in the entrepreneurial spirit of this country. People have tasted the good life & are not willing to go back. They will work extra hard to ensure this nation stays the course & continues to progress. This will only be possible if the government stays out of the way & does not try to manage the economy.
So I'm going with survival for all, the market will be up 80% (17,163) on the next E-day & that's where I'm casting my vote. I hope it does better & I have to pay Buzz & Joe off, that is if they are willing to back their candidate with a little of the green stuff. Over only guys!
Marvin,Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin S
If this is a fair measure of economic performance, what does it mean given that the DOW was 10,587.60 when Bush took office, about 10,450 when he was sworn for his second term, and is under 9000 eight years later?
It was a little over 14K about a year ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by YardleyLabs
But Bush will not get high marks for his appointments & their handling of the economy. Though both the Bush administration & McCain tried to rein in the prolific ways of the institutions that have so clearly let us down, & were shot down by the D's who were so clearly benefitting from those actions. I am not sure how hard they tried. Were they to preoccupied with waging the fight against terrorism, as boy Clinton was to occupied with satisfying his personal pleasures & the defense when found out?
I couldn't try to defend anyone who reached for the lollipops in this strange economy. 20 years ago we were looking for property outside WA to move to, the properties were grossly overpriced by any measure. Most owed more on their property than we would have been willing to pay at that time, & this again, was 20 years ago. If we could recognize something wasn't right at that time, why weren't the experts paying attention.
We have a couple of funds that were in FNM & lost considerable. We are glad we found that they were not as fiscally prudent as they claimed before we allocated further resources to them.
I just have considerable faith in entrpreneurial spirit - the desire to maintain a standard that they have set for themselves - but if the perpretrators of this financial fiasco walked the soup lines for awhile it would not bother me in the least, for all the grief they have caused others.
I suspect that 14k DOW needs an asterisk next to it just like Barry Bonds' record setting ball. In this case unheard of levels of debt seem to have been the real fuel driving the economy -- sort of the economic equivalent of steroids with most of the same drawbacks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin S