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Thread: 2016 Presidential Campaign Warm-Up

  1. #1
    Senior Member Gerry Clinchy's Avatar
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    Default 2016 Presidential Campaign Warm-Up

    Saw this today:
    N.H. 2016 Presidential Primary

    Republicans: Rand Paul 17%//Chris Christie 16%// Paul Ryan 9%// Jeb Bush 8%// Scott Brown 7%// Ted Cruz 6%// Marco Rubio 4%// Rick Santorum 4%//Scott Walker 2%//Rick Perry 1%


    Democrats: Hillary Clinton 64%// Joe Biden 6 %// Elizabeth Warren 6%// Andrew Cuomo 2%// Deval Patrick 1%
    Is this the best that the Ds can offer?

    Supposedly, from another poll cited earlier on the Forum, Christie has the best chance against Hillary. My perception is because he is practically a D on a lot of issues himself ... and, therefore, is getting support from D voters in such a comparison. What do you think?

    The marked difference I see in these two lists are that the Rs have a deeper bench of younger possibilities, and the voters may be getting tired of the same old faces ... and the same old ideas.
    G.Clinchy@gmail.com
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    Is it surprising to anyone that a Libertarian and a Democrat by far the front runners for the Republican party? Says a lot about the way the party is splitting.

  3. #3
    Senior Member Gerry Clinchy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mngundog View Post
    Is it surprising to anyone that a Libertarian and a Democrat by far the front runners for the Republican party? Says a lot about the way the party is splitting.
    I might also expect to see such a split occurring in the Dem party given a little more time. There are more centrist Ds in the party, and more left Ds. Most recently the left has had more influence, and that may not set well with the centrists.

    I've heard said that Dems of the JFK era would not be very supportive of the party's trends today.

    As for having such splits in both parties, it could be a good and healthy thing for both parties.

    I have to believe that there are sincere Christians, Jews, etc. in the Dem party ... and that such individuals would have reservations about the lengths being gone to to remove the word "God" from anything even remotely associated with govt. Atheists are, from all stats I've ever seen, a minority of the population, so if the perspective of the party & it's policies become heavily atheistic it could cause them to lose a lot of their base.

    That does not mean that atheists are not entitled to be atheists, it just means that people who have a belief in God have a more difficult time defending policies that do not give at least equal consideration to God-centered individuals. It's not just about issues like abortion, it's about an individual's ethics and integrity guiding their behaviors. I admit that I don't know many atheists and do not know in depth how they center their differentiation of good and evil. I admit that is because I was raised in a God-centered environment.

    Getting too philosophical!
    G.Clinchy@gmail.com
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    Senior Member Franco's Avatar
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    I listened to the rebroadcast speech delivered by Repub Tom Ridge yesterday from this past weekend. I agree with him. Until the Repubs are willing to enter the 21st Century, the White House will remain in the hands of the Dems. It doesn't matter if they ran Hillary or George Clinton. Ridge should have been McCain's running mate. The man has raised himself up from poverty, is a decorated Vietnam Vet and has the experience to lead.
    Last edited by Franco; 10-25-2013 at 04:27 PM.
    The Libertarian Party believes that all persons are entitled to keep the fruits of their labor. A call for the repeal of the income tax, abolishment of the Internal Revenue Service and all federal programs and services not required under the U.S. Constitution. We support the passage of a "Balanced Budget Amendment" to the U.S. Constitution, provided that the budget is balanced exclusively by cutting expenditures, and not by raising taxes. LP.org

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    Senior Member Henlee's Avatar
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    I don't think the D's are going to divide. On what issue would they divide? The R's will though for sure. The lines between Conservatives and Moderates are clearly drawn.
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    Senior Member road kill's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Henlee View Post
    I don't think the D's are going to divide. On what issue would they divide? The R's will though for sure. The lines between Conservatives and Moderates are clearly drawn.
    Obamacare!!!!

    Was their biggest "hope", now their biggest fear!!!!

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    Senior Member Gerry Clinchy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Henlee View Post
    I don't think the D's are going to divide. On what issue would they divide? The R's will though for sure. The lines between Conservatives and Moderates are clearly drawn.
    I think the divide would be the same, Moderate and Progressive, for the Dems.

    They go to great lengths not to show their division, but I find it hard to believe that there are not some divisions beneathe the surface. I believe there are some very decent Dems with good intentions, and the strong-arm stuff that Reid & his crew have used to get votes has to have generated some questioning among them. We see a little bit of it with those who are now wanting to delay O-care. I think there is more than we see, but they are not yet strong enough in numbers to pit against the establishment.

    In fact, this is the remarkable thing about Cruz, Lee and others ... they are willing to stand up for what they believe in. If some Dems catch that virus it will make division there, too.

    I don't think we should think in terms of just this issue or that issue ... it is an overall mentality. If you can't disagree with anyone without being called a racist, etc. it has to grate on Dems who disagree with the establishment, just as it would grate on anyone whose motives are sincere.

    Ever notice that all dictators eventually meet their end ... in some way, manner, shape or form? And Americans are less tolerant of dictators of any sort than most other societies. There is always a rebel in the group.
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    Senior Member Henlee's Avatar
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    Maybe, but I am not seeing any great divides. No real political infighting that I see. I feel there is a general sense that it is Hilary's turn among dems.

    On the R's side though I see about half of all sitting politicians being called RINOS and being openly questioned as to if they are even members of the GOP. Divisions do not get bigger than that. There are open conversations as to if the party ought to split in two. Last two elections R's had part of their electorate sit rather than vote for their candidate they didn't like. The mods vs. cons is as big of divide as R's vs. D's.
    During break time at obedience school, two dogs were talking.
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    Senior Member Gerry Clinchy's Avatar
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    Henlee, I agree that the (mostly) younger Rs are not willing to go along with the "old guard". That may not be all bad. If the Rs need a rejuvenation, then it may be painful, but necessary.

    Cruz's point of view:
    “For everyone who says we need to think about winning elections in 2014, nothing energizes [voters] more than a grassroots election,” he said. “We got our clock cleaned in ’06, ’08 and ’12. But we had grassroots in [2010.] Republican strategist say let's go back to ’06, ’08 and ’12. They say keep your head down. That's how you win -- what complete poppycock.”
    One might have to agree that choosing the "safe" candidates in the past did not offer enough "difference" between Ds and Rs that were running. In a situation like that, I think it is human nature to stay with what they know, rather than change horses. McCain v. Obama, no contest, really. The tide was toward having our first black POTUS, for better or for worse.

    The establishment Rs seem to favor to keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.

    While it appears (my observation is certainly open to refutation) that the Senate Rs are the ones who are most against Cruz & Lee, the House Rs have shown a more conservative leaning. Having seen the behavior of Sens. McCain, Corker, McConnell, I find them very unappealing as leaders. McConnell has already conceded that another govt shutdown will not happen when the next CR comes around.

    I'm not totally convinced that most people saw much bad in the shutdown, but it surely did show what mean-spirited behavior the Ds could demonstrate to make people unreasonably inconvenienced ... like trying to shut down state roads and tourist attractions that were not run by the Feds.

    However, if the real pain & incompetence of O-care continues, then the Oct. shutdown will be long forgotten, and if the Rs are smart enough (always questionable) to capitalize on that failure, they have a strong issue to campaign with.

    As for Hillary, she is every bit as corrupt as any politician in our history, IMHO. She may be the D darling, but if she can scream at a Congressional Committee when she is under pressure, what kind of person is she to negotiate with world leaders or be in charge of the most powerful military in the world?
    G.Clinchy@gmail.com
    "Know in your heart that all things are possible. We couldn't conceive of a miracle if none ever happened." -Libby Fudim

    ​I don't use the PM feature, so just email me direct at the address shown above.

  10. #10
    Senior Member Henlee's Avatar
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    I wouldn't try to defend Hillary here. The ammo against her is pretty old though. There is no new material except Benghazi. I think it will be hard to rebrand her. I don't think the D's are going to help you do it in the primaries also.

    There is no clear cut leader in front of the R's therefore it will be a long primary like in the last election. The attacks will go negative as candidates feel the need to differentiate from each other. We can call it Romney Syndrome if you like. With no clear cut winner early everyone will try to hammer through like they can win.

    I don't think the shutdown will be a factor come election.

    I do think that Cruz in particular has no chance of even winning the nomination. In fact I think Christy will win because I think primary voters will weaken the conservative vote by spreading it around all the conservative candidates.
    During break time at obedience school, two dogs were talking.
    One said to the other..."The thing I hate about obedience school is you learn ALL this stuff you will never use in the real world."

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