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Thread: OIL- Is the Era of Cheap Oil behind Us?

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    Default OIL- Is the Era of Cheap Oil behind Us?

    I just finished read an article in the June issue of National Geographic- "Tapped Out" by Paul Roberts. Here are some of the highlights.

    In 2000 Sadad I. Al Husseini then head of exploration and production for Saudi Aramco calculated that starting as early as 2004 oil output leveling off. After a plateau of 15 years the output of conventional oil would begin a gradual but irreversible decline.

    Chistophe de Margerie of the French oil giant Total declared the maximum daily output was 100 million barrels-meaning global demand would outstrip supply before 2020.

    Royal Dutch Shell's CEO, Jeroen van der Veer estimate that "after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand."

    The volume of discovered each year has steadily fallen since the early 1960s. Most of the big, easily located fields were discovered decades ago, and the remaining fields tend to be small. Not only are they harder to find than big fields, but they must also be found in greater numbers to produce as much oil. The smaller fields also cost more to operate than larger ones do.

    Matt Simmons, a Houston investment banker who has studied the oil industry "the world has zillions of little fields. The problem is you need a zillion oil rigs to get at them all."

    Much of our oil is coming from mature fields approaching their peaks, or are even in decline; output is plummeting in once prolific regions such as the North Sea and Alaska's North Slope.

    Many of the biggest oil companies, including Shell and Pemex, are actually finding less oil each than they can sell.

    According to James Mulva, CEO of ConocoPhillips by 2010 nearly 40 percent of the world's daily oil output will have to come from fields that have not been tapped-or even discovered. At a conference in New York last fall, he predicted output would stall at 100 million barrels a day-the same figure Total's chief had projected.

    In the early 1970s, during the Arab oil embargo, U.S. policymakers considered desperate measures to keep oil supplies flowing, even drawing up contingency plans to seize Middle Eastern oil fields.
    Last edited by Losthwy; 06-03-2008 at 08:52 PM.
    What its prominence suggest, and what all science confirms is that the dog is a creature of the nose- A. Horowitz.

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    Senior Member spaightlabs's Avatar
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    google 'peak oil'...
    Slow is smooth and smooth is fast.

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    Senior Member AmiableLabs's Avatar
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    GM announced the closing of four manufacturing plants today -- trucks and SUVs.

    Their experts have told them that the current price of gas is not a spike, but the new reality.
    Kevin Walker

    Drive is the manifestation of Desire, and measured in Style.
    Thank you judges who score Style, you are preserving Desire!

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    Senior Member Bruce MacPherson's Avatar
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    Unfortunately yes, and I am dreading a presidential administration and stacked congress that seems determined on making it worse.
    "The longer you let a dog go in the wrong direction the more they think they are going in the right direction" Don Remien.

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    Senior Member Don Smith's Avatar
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    I'm no oil expert, but from everything I've read and heard, the country with the largest oil reserves is us. We already know about ANWR, offshore oil reserves, Utah and North and South Dakota. The only of those that is the more expensive to produce shale oil is Utah. Just yesterday on the radio, I heard that a new, massive reserve has been found in Montana. The estimate is that this one, alone, could supply our needs for years. I don't recall how many years they estimated, exactly, but I recall thinking that we will all be pushing up daisies before it is gone. In addition, the governor of Montana has said that they will welcome a new refinery. We have so much oil in this country that we could become an OPEC leader if we wanted. The problem is that Congress won't let us drill it. Recently, I heard Chuckie Schumer saying that he still opposes drilling in ANWR and it's nto a solution because it would take 10 years for us to get any of that oil. Well, you moron, if we had started drilling there 20 years ago, we'd have it. In 2002, Bush suggested building refineries on now abandoned military bases. As a federal attorney, I'm very familiar with the fact that we are closing facilities with every iteration of the Base Realignment and Closure Commission. Well, that suggestion apparently fell on deaf ears. Instead, Congress drives up food prices by emphasizing corn production to produce ethanol to burn in our cars. That makes a bunch of sense. Almost takes as much energy to produce ethanol as is derived from it and you get significantly fewer miles per gallon with ethanol as compared to gasoline. Let's face it, until we get the greedy, short-sighted Congressmen, who spend their time setting up their own great retirement system and who I now learn are personally benefitting from earmarks, this country will continue to go down the tubes.
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    Follow this link to a lengthly but worth the time lecture given by the former Chaplain of the Prudhoe Bay Oil Fields. He has a book out too. The Non Energy Crisis. Lindsey is telling it from the inside scoop. Pass this link on to anyone wondering what Mr. Kissinger was up do when he was secretary of state.

    This is a MUST WATCH by anyone wondering why it costs $40 in fuel to go train your dogs now. And Please....Pass this on.

    http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...98272&q=&hl=en
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    Senior Member brian breuer's Avatar
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    Don Smith wrote:

    "We have so much oil in this country that we could become an OPEC leader if we wanted. The problem is that Congress won't let us drill it."

    Congress must not be paying attention to western North Dakota. There are oil rigs, water trucks, service trucks from here to Montana. I understand its needed but there won't be a mule deer or antelope left in the state if they keep this up.

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    Senior Member Goose's Avatar
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    From an opinion piece in the WSJ:

    "...nonpark federal lands in the west, Alaska and under the waters of our coasts hold an estimated 635 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas - enough to fuel 60 million American homes by nat gas for over a century. They also hold an estimated 112 billion barrels of recoverable oil - enough to produce gasoline for 60 million cars and fuel oil for 25 million homes for 60 years."

    We can blame our gutless Congress for not caring about the economic well being of American citizens and not standing up against the environmental movement in this country that would have us all on horseback.

    I heard a prediction from a respected oil expert a few days ago...gas at $12 a gallon by 2012.

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    There are no more "massive oil fields" to be developed. The easily found large oil fields have been long discovered. They have either hit their peak or some cases are already in decline. What is left are the smaller oil fields, and they are more costly to develop. Drilling in ANWR isn't the answer. Cheap gas is gone. Like the folks at G.M. said this isn't a spike but "the new reality". Drill and fill is old school thinking, we need to change.
    What its prominence suggest, and what all science confirms is that the dog is a creature of the nose- A. Horowitz.

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    Senior Member Don Smith's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goose View Post
    From an opinion piece in the WSJ:

    "...nonpark federal lands in the west, Alaska and under the waters of our coasts hold an estimated 635 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas - enough to fuel 60 million American homes by nat gas for over a century. They also hold an estimated 112 billion barrels of recoverable oil - enough to produce gasoline for 60 million cars and fuel oil for 25 million homes for 60 years."

    We can blame our gutless Congress for not caring about the economic well being of American citizens and not standing up against the environmental movement in this country that would have us all on horseback.

    I heard a prediction from a respected oil expert a few days ago...gas at $12 a gallon by 2012.
    One immediate solution: Reducing the number of fuel blends significantly. The requirments for all the different blends increase price. In 2004, the GAO found that there were at least 45 different fuel blends produced. http://www.gao.gov/docsearch/abstrac...tno=GAO-05-421 Second key to the solution, encourage, instead of discourage, construction of new refineries, first, by allowing construction on abandoned military bases, second, by significantly reducing the 800 permits needed to build a refinery. Third, Congress can severely restrict causes of action available for environmental groups to challenge construction under the EPA. Third key, Congressional approval of drilling our own oil. Fourth key, Congress can eliminate any incentive to produce ethanol from grain as a few since it is not realistic and since it is driving up food prices. Fifth key, Congress can significantly encourage real alternative energy solutions, e.g. oil produced from coal, nuclear energy, etc.
    HRCH Meglyn's Honest Abe MH
    HRCH Meglyn's Maramaxx Daisycutter MH (Daisy)
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    Meglyn's Timbrhuntn ValleyGirl (Lilly)
    Meglyn's Prime Time to Leave Me Lucille (Lucy)
    Meglyn's Lionheart (Little Guy)
    In memory of Chevy, HR Meglyn's Silverado Slim SH, July 20, 2006. I miss you, buddy.
    and HR Meglyn's Blue Ridge Belle MH, July 19, 2008. I miss you, Baby Girl.

    www.meglynretrievers.com

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