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Thread: Pandemic In Mexico ?

  1. #31
    Senior Member Steve's Avatar
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    While 100 hundred people in Mexico have died, no one in the US has. Last I heard only one person had been admitted to the hospital. This will probably be another crisis that isn't, just like sars, bird flu, ebola, etc....
    Kelly, Weis, Willingham, & Davies

  2. #32
    Senior Member badbullgator's Avatar
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    One thing to remember is that most people do not go to the doctor with the flu unless they are really ill. In Mexico I can only imagine that even less go for the flu, but certainly no more seek care than we do here. The number of confirmed cases is easily ten times less than the actual number of cases. Do you recall when West Nile Virus first came to light? I do I was still working in infectious disease. At first it was just a few cases in a few locations, then it “spread”. What was eventually found was that nearly everyone in areas affected with WNV had exposure to it but until serological studies were done it was not known how many people had “had” the virus. Now I am not saying that this flu is as harmless as WNV and it does look to be more virulent. What I am saying is I believe many more cases will be found. Keep in mind that even when you go to the doctor for the flu most people are not actually tested for it and it is diagnosed by symptoms rather than confirmatory lab test. Even when a lab becomes involved the testing done is very specific and only for common strains. Nobody (labs) has been looking for this swine flu so right now it is hard to say how many people had it already. Did you have the flu this year? Do you know what strain it was? Did you go to the doctor? Did he send anything to the lab? No need to panic that is for sure. 35-40,000 people in the US die each year from “the flu” and this one is not headed there just yet. The last pandemic in the US was in 68 (or there about) Modern medicine, healthcare, and sanitary conditions are far better than once existed even as short a time ago as the 60’s.
    All that said I would say the biggest chances of the world ending as we know it would be from Nuclear war, a meteorite, of an novel infectious disease (possibly intentionally put into the population …more tin foil hat stuff of course)
    One thing I do know is the media is of no help in this matter. Many are calling it a pandemic already and with in the 7 o'clock hour I watched three different news programs, one reported "hundreds of deaths", another 149 deaths, and yet another that only reported 20 something confirmed deaths...... You can always count on the media
    Views and opinions expressed herein by Badbullgator do not necessarily represent the policies or position of RTF. RTF and all of it's subsidiaries can not be held liable for the off centered humor and politically incorrect comments of the author.
    Corey Burke

  3. #33
    Senior Member Franco's Avatar
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    I don't know for sure if the danger is behind us or not.

    What if this one or the next turns out to be extremely deadly? This is reason enough, even for the most liberal of politician REASON to secure all of our boarders. We may be lucky with this one, will we be ready for a serious one? Do you trust our government to be able to protect you?
    It's such a shame that in the USA, defending Liberty has become such a heroic deed.

  4. #34
    Senior Member badbullgator's Avatar
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    No I don't trust them. Remember the CDC is a gooberment agency and the WHO is very similar to the UN in their usefulness
    Views and opinions expressed herein by Badbullgator do not necessarily represent the policies or position of RTF. RTF and all of it's subsidiaries can not be held liable for the off centered humor and politically incorrect comments of the author.
    Corey Burke

  5. #35
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    Suppose that nobody died? I think we tend to focus on the number of deaths a disease can cause and forget the overall impact of widespread illness on the economy. A reasonable infection rate for a novel virus in a naive population is 30-40 % of the population. What would be the global impact of a virus that killed no one, but sickened 30-40% of the global population, on an economy that is already weakened?

    As Cory pointed out, the information we have about actual cases is likely the tip of the iceberg of what's really out there. If it turns out that there are thousands of other cases, where the patients have already recovered, it will lower the calculation of the death rate. But, it will increase the infection rate. The increase in the infection rate will also increase the RO factor, the ability of the virus to infect others, and consequently the likelyhood that it will go pandemic.

    There is a whole lot we don't know yet, and may only know after things unfold. So, I can sit back and look at the rosy side and be taken by surprise. Or, I can look at other realistic, but darker, possibilities and prepare for them.

  6. #36
    Senior Member Britt&Angie S.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by badbullgator View Post
    Mark my words

    the sky is falling



    It is the flu folks and yes through history the flu has killed far more than anything else, but it is not a panic situation and few will die from this. Huge difference between living conditions in Mexico and America
    I agree my sister has been to Mexico twice and both times came down extremely ill can't remember what the docs called it here but it was caused from people not washing their hands after using the bathroom and then preparing food! DISGUSTING and i know that that doesn't have anything to due with the swine flu but they live very different there than here. They need to be doing more i think and i to believe that illegal aliens are bring in illnesses. I worked at a clinic here in town and their are a lot of illegals moving in this area! We hadn't seen a parvo case in a year or so and all the sudden we had many Hispanics that had dogs and pups they brought back from Mexico with sever cases of Parvo and lost a couple of them!
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  7. #37
    Senior Member BrianW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by badbullgator View Post
    of an novel infectious disease (possibly intentionally put into the population …more tin foil hat stuff of course)
    Granted that the media reports have to be viewed skeptically but

    "...tests show a 4-year-old boy contracted the virus before April 2 in Veracruz state, where a community has been protesting pollution from a large pig farm.
    The farm is run by Granjas Carroll de Mexico, a joint venture half owned by Virginia-based Smithfield Foods, Inc. Spokeswoman Keira Ullrich said the company has found no clinical signs or symptoms of the presence of swine flu in its herd or its employees working anywhere in Mexico.
    Mexico's Agriculture Department said Monday that its inspectors found no sign of swine flu among pigs around the farm in Veracruz, and that no infected pigs have been found yet anywhere in Mexico."


    Combine that with previous statements that the tested pig virus is from 3 different continents, doesn't that strike y'all as just a little weird?

    OK, North American swine/avian/ human flu viruses reassort and enter the population in the approx center of the Western Hemisphere, acceptably bizarre.

    But did the pigs just have a world wide "spring break" in Cancun that nobody noticed?


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  8. #38
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    ...no clinical signs or symptoms of the presence of swine flu in its herd or its employees working anywhere in Mexico.

    Mexico's Agriculture Department said Monday that its inspectors found no sign of swine flu among pigs around the farm in Veracruz, and that no infected pigs have been found yet anywhere in Mexico."
    (emphasis mine)

    'clincial signs or symptoms' means no visible symptoms like fever, lethargy, etc. Pigs may turn out to be asymptomatic carriers of the virus. But, can only be determined in the lab. It would be interesting to know if any of the swine livestock workers are symptomatic.

  9. #39
    Senior Member badbullgator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrianW View Post
    Granted that the media reports have to be viewed skeptically but

    "...tests show a 4-year-old boy contracted the virus before April 2 in Veracruz state, where a community has been protesting pollution from a large pig farm.

    See this is a BIG part of the problem and why Mexico has a higher number of deaths (however, 150 aint very many in a country where very few seek medical care for minor flu). Mexico is a crap hole of a country in regard to sanitation, hygiene, and healthcare. The very fact that the community was protesting pollution form the farm (you can bet it was not greenhouse gasses and global warming they were protesting) says a lot about the conditions in the area. If you recall the bird flu struck mostly people in Asia who worked on poultry farms and not only worked on them but actually lived WITH the chickens. Poor sanitation and hygiene leads to disease and death.
    I found it kind of funny yet sad at the same time that when I watched the news this morning they were reporting that the number of cases in the us had “doubled overnight”. Holy crap!!!! Yeah what they did not mention was that the new added cases were from the school in NY and that those added cases had already recovered. Oh no the sky is falling, the sky is falling.
    Sinck I agree there are economic consequences to this or and infectious disease that is widespread, but that also includes the regular old influenza A and B that we se each year. IMHO the media is doing what it does best and that is add their sensationalizing to a story that is not that much of a story. Remember if it bleeds (or someone dies) it leads. They are doing more to the economy that the actual bug itself. Our area has a huge volume of European tourist during the summer months and this will without a doubt hurt our area. I am not saying that the media should not cover it, but devoting 15 minutes each hour to showing people in Mexico wearing mask, a few Asian tourist wearing them in JFK, B roll footage of labratorians plating BACTERIA (viral cultures are grown in flask of media most of the time with a cell line to support growth of the virus, bacteria is spread out on plates containing nutrient media specific to what you are looking for) and other scary footage is nothing more than sensationalism PERIOD. The story could and should be done without all the scary footage. Tell us there is a health warning, tell us numbers if you wish, tell us what it is called and how you get it, tell us what to do if you think you have been exposed but don’t try to scare the crap out of people so your ratings will grow. If the media was actually the News media and reported only the news our world would be a better place
    Views and opinions expressed herein by Badbullgator do not necessarily represent the policies or position of RTF. RTF and all of it's subsidiaries can not be held liable for the off centered humor and politically incorrect comments of the author.
    Corey Burke

  10. #40
    Senior Member Hew's Avatar
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    I was in China for a few weeks at the height of the SARS "epidemic." What a cluster-you-know-what. It seemed like the entire country, including dirt poor peasants, was walking around in surgical or dust masks. I'd bet that more people died from problems associated with wearing negative pressure respirators/masks than they did from SARS. Every place that might have foreigners (airports, hotels, restaurants, etc.) was equipped with infrared thermometers...and anyone who had a high temperature would be pulled out of line and sent who-knows-where for additional examination. Wherever they checked your temperature you also had to fill out an information card with a voluminous amount of info about who you were, where you've been, where you were going, etc. Somewhere between filling out the 10th and 30th info cards, me and a guy I was travelling with had an ephiphany....the people accepting the cards couldn't read english and were just checking to make sure there was writing on every blank section of the card. We started amusing ourselves by filling out our cards as Fred Flintstone, Josie Wales, Dirk Diggler, etc. By the end, even that got boring and we started just scribbling in each blank. Withouth fail, the cards were accepted with a grin and a "Sank rou."

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