Fuzzy Math???

[badbullgator]

This will probably not come as a surprise to anyone (even Jeff, but I am sure he will argue it). Watching my local news last night is see a story about a local project that is funded by the porklus money. Now the project itself is a good one and I am not knocking that. It is a road project that will extend a heavily traveled road 2.5 or so miles to another road. This has been needed for some time because of the traffic in the area. Now the thing that amused me is this, the story said that this project will take about 2 years and, here is the good part, create 1700 jobs! Yes they said 1700 jobs will be created by this project. Now I have never been in road construction but I know it does not take 1700 people to build a 2.5 mile road. My guess is there are calculating this based on businesses building along this new stretch of road. You really can’t count the people building the road because I know a number of people in this type of work and they seem to be one of the construction types that are not having a problem with work. The problem with the 1700 jobs created by the assumption that businesses will open along the new road is that our area has seen a dramatic drop in our population since the building boom has vanished. You see businesses all over that have closed up. With less demand for things due to less population and businesses closing and very few opening where are these new businesses going to come from? 1700 jobs aint going to happen from this, no way, no how. The road will take at least 2 years to build so if the jobs are coming form new businesses along that road it will be at least 3 years before the first one opens. I am sure obongo and his bunch will tout this as 1700 more jobs created under his infinite wisdom, but it is nothing more than what we seem to always get form him…..smoke and mirrors.

[YardleyLabs]

This will probably not come as a surprise to anyone (even Jeff, but I am sure he will argue it). Watching my local news last night is see a story about a local project that is funded by the porklus money. Now the project itself is a good one and I am not knocking that. It is a road project that will extend a heavily traveled road 2.5 or so miles to another road. This has been needed for some time because of the traffic in the area. Now the thing that amused me is this, the story said that this project will take about 2 years and, here is the good part, create 1700 jobs! Yes they said 1700 jobs will be created by this project. Now I have never been in road construction but I know it does not take 1700 people to build a 2.5 mile road. My guess is there are calculating this based on businesses building along this new stretch of road. You really can’t count the people building the road because I know a number of people in this type of work and they seem to be one of the construction types that are not having a problem with work. The problem with the 1700 jobs created by the assumption that businesses will open along the new road is that our area has seen a dramatic drop in our population since the building boom has vanished. You see businesses all over that have closed up. With less demand for things due to less population and businesses closing and very few opening where are these new businesses going to come from? 1700 jobs aint going to happen from this, no way, no how. The road will take at least 2 years to build so if the jobs are coming form new businesses along that road it will be at least 3 years before the first one opens. I am sure obongo and his bunch will tout this as 1700 more jobs created under his infinite wisdom, but it is nothing more than what we seem to always get form him…..smoke and mirrors.

Who is making the claim about the number of jobs: Obama or the local government agencies? How much does the project cost and how wide is the road? You should be able to pretty much calculate the number of jobs created based n the amount of money being spent.

[badbullgator]

I am trying to find a link and/or that information. The job estimate was stated by two different stations, but I do not know who is making the estimates on the numbers


BTW- Jeff thanks.....I knew I could count on you......

[Raymond Little]

This will probably not come as a surprise to anyone (even Jeff, but I am sure he will argue it). Watching my local news last night is see a story about a local project that is funded by the porklus money. Now the project itself is a good one and I am not knocking that. It is a road project that will extend a heavily traveled road 2.5 or so miles to another road. This has been needed for some time because of the traffic in the area. Now the thing that amused me is this, the story said that this project will take about 2 years and, here is the good part, create 1700 jobs! Yes they said 1700 jobs will be created by this project. Now I have never been in road construction but I know it does not take 1700 people to build a 2.5 mile road. My guess is there are calculating this based on businesses building along this new stretch of road. You really can’t count the people building the road because I know a number of people in this type of work and they seem to be one of the construction types that are not having a problem with work. The problem with the 1700 jobs created by the assumption that businesses will open along the new road is that our area has seen a dramatic drop in our population since the building boom has vanished. You see businesses all over that have closed up. With less demand for things due to less population and businesses closing and very few opening where are these new businesses going to come from? 1700 jobs aint going to happen from this, no way, no how. The road will take at least 2 years to build so if the jobs are coming form new businesses along that road it will be at least 3 years before the first one opens. I am sure obongo and his bunch will tout this as 1700 more jobs created under his infinite wisdom, but it is nothing more than what we seem to always get form him…..smoke and mirrors.

Are you sure it was not 17,000 Corey????
Save or Create Regards

[road kill]

Are you sure it was not 17,000 Corey????
Save or Create Regards

The 17,000 number would be how many jobs were "saved!!"

Prove it wrong!!

[Terry Britton]

Some of this "New Jobs" reminds me of Clinton's creation of summer jobs for students in the early 90's. What happened with the job I got at a USDA lab under the Federal Govt. that would have paid $11.50 an hour was transfered to the local University where they paid $6.50 an hour. No new job was actually created, and the beuacracy siphoned of $5 per hour that would have went to students that would have spent the $$$, and stimulated the economy.

I suggest everyone to read the 1950's book "How to Lie with Statistics".

[YardleyLabs]

Statistics on jobs created are a little funky under any circumstances and should always be taken with a pound of salt. If you look at a program spending money, you need to estimate how much is going as return on capital and how much is going to labor. The latter could be said to provide a measure of Job creation in the first instance. Next you have to consider what happens to the money that is spent on both labor and capital. Does it go into a pot of cash that is stuffed into a mattress or is it spent on other goods and services either for current consumption or investment. Thise activities may also create derivative jobs. Do you count those or not? Are you actually creating jobs or simply redeploying workers from one job to another with a higher wage? The former only happens when there are excess resources in the economy. In the latter case, the result is not higher employment but inflation. Do new jobs get created by spending for activities involving labor? Yes. Is there a good way to count that impact? Not really. What is a job anyway? If I hire 12 people for one month under one project and one person for a year under another, which project created the greater number of jobs?

[dnf777]

It's really simple. Given the efficiency of gov't administrators, it will take 1700 office staffers to run the local unemployment office and give out unemployment checks to the 1700 people who will NOT get jobs from this project. Got it?

"How to Lie with Statistics" ... I'll second that recommendation--Great book

[road kill]

"There are lies, damned lies and statistics!" Mark Twain

[badbullgator]

In our local paper today they are now saying that the estimate was well off the actual number of jobs it will “create”. Several people and new outlets called them on their numbers. The state says that the jobs “created” will mostly be for the 60 million dollar construction project and the breakdown is only a 100 or so will be doing the actual construction and the rest of the jobs are attributed to people selling them food and services while they are doing the work and all of the people who manage and work behind the scenes in those businesses that are providing these services like hotels and restaurants. They went on to say that there is really no way to pin down the “exact” number. I read that to say they simply made them up. I was born at night, but not last night and I cannot see for the life of me how a 100 or even 300 construction workers could possible “create” 1400 jobs supporting them while they are doing the work.