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Thread: America is conservative

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    Default America is conservative

    Despite what Jeff and Henry will have you think the majority of Americans consider themselves conservative.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/121403/Sp...ly-Moving.aspx

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    Senior Member BonMallari's Avatar
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    I think what the poll didnt show is that America is fiscally conservative, but morally moderate to liberal..also what has been pointed out on this forum by liberals is that many "conservatives" crossed over and voted for BHO, he didnt get elected by Democrats only. The libs got their electorate whipped into a frenzy, the Repubs sat back and figured common sense would prevail and kept waiting for the last minute hail mary, which never showed up
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    Quote Originally Posted by eildydar View Post
    Despite what Jeff and Henry will have you think the majority of Americans consider themselves conservative.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/121403/Sp...ly-Moving.aspx
    You have to read the whole story.

    On one hand, Americans self report that they have become more conservative over the last four years. However, only 40% identify themselves as conservative. 34% say the Republican party is just about right in its views whole 42% say the democrats are just about right. However, 48% say democrats are too liberal while 43% say republicans are too conservative. 38% of independents view democrats as being about right while 25% of independents view republicans as being about right.

    When you go to specific issues it becomes even less clear. 41% believe that health care is not a government responsibility. 32% want unions to have less influence (35% want more). 39% want the level of immigration to decrease. 36% of Americans consider themselves to be Democrats (22% of these identify themselves as conservatives), and 28% identify themselves as republicans. 37% identify as independents and the majority of these (51%) lean towards democrats.

    The big difference is that the republican party has defined itself in a way that 69% of those voting or leaning republican identify themselves as conservatives. By contrast, only 36% of democrats view themselves as liberal, suggesting that democrats have successfully captured the center while republicans are talking about how to purgre themselves of the few moderates and liberals that still identify with the party.

    What does all of this mean? I would draw a few conclusions:
    1. The 2008 election, as I have suggested before, was more a reflection of the republicans shooting themselves than of the democrats winning the hearts and souls of the voters.
    2. While the republican "base" likes to claim that the party's losses result from straying too far from conservative issues, the numbers suggest that the party is alienating the moderates that it needs to put together an election victory.
    3. If republicans base their strategy of lower taxes, keeping government out of health care, closing off immigration, and increasing government's role in protecting traditional values, they will lose.
    4. If they focus on strong defense, responsible economic development, some improvements in health care accessibility, no increases in middle class taxes, and real deficit reduction, they may well be able to win.

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    Senior Member Nor_Cal_Angler's Avatar
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    My belief is that this "sample" (s) of the greater public opinion is a bunch of BS....

    I think most of us miss the real message.....THEY ONLY INTERVIEWED 1100 people and say they are confident (95%) they have a factored margin of error of + or - 3 %

    169,000,000 registered voters in 2008 gets lumped into 1100 people...COME ON.

    source: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_r...ntial_election

    (I could have used cencus.usa.gov but they only show up to 2006 and the number was less 136 million)

    I also know from life and common sense that REPUBLICANS are LESS likely to identify themselves as such as apposed to Democrats who generally will tell who ever it is they are talking to ....Republican voting people generally feel it is a private matter and keep to themselves, especially the elderly, what that means is REPUBLICANS are more likely to tell this telephone interviewer to GO TO HELL while democrats whill tell you everything you want to know and more . "Young Republicans" are becomming a voice in todays world and arn't so "hushed" when it comes to professing there political ties...

    I would say that to try to reflect an accurate picture is almost IMPOSSIBLE while only gathering information from 1100 people....It just will not allow for a compete sample population.

    Had the report said that a population of 50,000 was taken with a margin of error + or - 3 %, I might give it a grain of salt, and that is is big maybe.

    NCA
    Last edited by Nor_Cal_Angler; 07-09-2009 at 05:57 PM.

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    Senior Member dnf777's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nor_Cal_Angler View Post
    My belief is that this "sample" (s) of the greater public opinion is a bunch of BS....

    I think most of us miss the real message.....THEY ONLY INTERVIEWED 1100 people and say they are confident (95%) they have a factored margin of error of + or - 3 %

    169,000,000 registered voters in 2008 gets lumped into 1100 people...COME ON.

    source: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_r...ntial_election

    (I could have used cencus.usa.gov but they only show up to 2006 and the number was less 136 million)

    I also know from life and common sense that REPUBLICANS are LESS likely to identify themselves as such as apposed to Democrats who generally will tell who ever it is they are talking to ....Republican voting people generally feel it is a private matter and keep to themselves, especially the elderly, what that means is REPUBLICANS are more likely to tell this telephone interviewer to GO TO HELL while democrats whill tell you everything you want to know and more . "Young Republicans" are becomming a voice in todays world and arn't so "hushed" when it comes to professing there political ties...

    I would say that to try to reflect an accurate picture is almost IMPOSSIBLE while only gathering information from 1100 people....It just will not allow for a compete sample population.

    Had the report said that a population of 50,000 was taken with a margin of error + or - 3 %, I might give it a grain of salt, and that is is big maybe.

    NCA
    I would agree with most of what you said, except that conservatives are less vociferous. Look at the postings on this forum, and you will see conservative posts outnumber liberal or moderate posts my a large margin.

    I cannot find a liberal or neutral news-talk show anywhere on the radio dial. I understand XM has a liberal station, and that's about it. When I think of hosts....Hannity, Limbaugh, Colter, Malkin....the list goes on and on. I don't think those people necessarily reflect the views of most republicans however. Maybe that's why many old-school conservatives feel left out, and why the neocon era has seemingly come to an end. Christie Todd-Whitman's book, "It's My Party Too" is a nice summary of what has happened, and it was out before the election.
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    i would disagree and say that most do actually agree with their views. Hell even Franco says he doesn't agree with them but when you listen to what he wants for the party and what they want its identical. Some people don't want to associate themselves with those hosts but that doesn't mean that they don't agree with their views on policy.

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    Senior Member dnf777's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by eildydar View Post
    i would disagree and say that most do actually agree with their views. Hell even Franco says he doesn't agree with them but when you listen to what he wants for the party and what they want its identical. Some people don't want to associate themselves with those hosts but that doesn't mean that they don't agree with their views on policy.
    I think many may agree with *some* of what they say, but not enough to want to be associated with them.
    God Bless PFC Jamie Harkness. The US Army's newest PFC, but still our neighbor's little girl!

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    Well to put you on the spot lol what don't you agree with?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nor_Cal_Angler View Post
    My belief is that this "sample" (s) of the greater public opinion is a bunch of BS....

    I think most of us miss the real message.....THEY ONLY INTERVIEWED 1100 people and say they are confident (95%) they have a factored margin of error of + or - 3 %

    169,000,000 registered voters in 2008 gets lumped into 1100 people...COME ON.

    source: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_r...ntial_election

    (I could have used cencus.usa.gov but they only show up to 2006 and the number was less 136 million)

    I also know from life and common sense that REPUBLICANS are LESS likely to identify themselves as such as apposed to Democrats who generally will tell who ever it is they are talking to ....Republican voting people generally feel it is a private matter and keep to themselves, especially the elderly, what that means is REPUBLICANS are more likely to tell this telephone interviewer to GO TO HELL while democrats whill tell you everything you want to know and more . "Young Republicans" are becomming a voice in todays world and arn't so "hushed" when it comes to professing there political ties...

    I would say that to try to reflect an accurate picture is almost IMPOSSIBLE while only gathering information from 1100 people....It just will not allow for a compete sample population.

    Had the report said that a population of 50,000 was taken with a margin of error + or - 3 %, I might give it a grain of salt, and that is is big maybe.

    NCA
    1. 1. Poll accuracy: This is sort of like a science vs. faith discussion. On one and you have decades of detailed analysis and testing on top of centuries during which theories of probability have been developed that show that it is indeed possible to estimate opinion at a moment in time for an infinite population using a relatively small sample if you do it correctly. On the other hand is the blind faith that more is better. The fact is that it is more accurate to predict opinion on a discrete issue for the entire US population using a carefully selected sample of 1100 people than it would be to succeed in having 20% of the population call into a designated number to tell you their opinions (American Idol approach). The problem with polls is that everything depends on doing it correctly. How you select people, how you contact them, how you handle non-respondents, how you word the question (e.g. Do you ask people if they are pro-life or ask them if they believe all abortions should be illegal except in cases of ......), etc., all have a major impact on the result. Unfortunately, many people organizing polls are more interested in shaping opinion than in finding out about opinion and design their "polls" for that purpose (e.g. the NRA "polls" that I always receive with a request for money).
    2. What makes you think that Republicans are less likely to respond to pollsters? There is a fair amount of evidence that people are generally reluctant to admit to prejudice, odd sexual behavior, drug/alcohol use, and even strongly negative opinions in polls. Are you basing your assumptions about republican poll response deficiency on characteristics they share with those other groups that are known to be reluctant responders? The fact is that extreme conservatives outnumber extreme liberals by about 2:1 (17% vs 8% in the Gallup poll). I've never found either group to be shy about ramming its beliefs down the ears of anyone in range.

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    Senior Member road kill's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YardleyLabs View Post
    1. 1. Poll accuracy: This is sort of like a science vs. faith discussion. On one and you have decades of detailed analysis and testing on top of centuries during which theories of probability have been developed that show that it is indeed possible to estimate opinion at a moment in time for an infinite population using a relatively small sample if you do it correctly. On the other hand is the blind faith that more is better. The fact is that it is more accurate to predict opinion on a discrete issue for the entire US population using a carefully selected sample of 1100 people than it would be to succeed in having 20% of the population call into a designated number to tell you their opinions (American Idol approach). The problem with polls is that everything depends on doing it correctly. How you select people, how you contact them, how you handle non-respondents, how you word the question (e.g. Do you ask people if they are pro-life or ask them if they believe all abortions should be illegal except in cases of ......), etc., all have a major impact on the result. Unfortunately, many people organizing polls are more interested in shaping opinion than in finding out about opinion and design their "polls" for that purpose (e.g. the NRA "polls" that I always receive with a request for money).
    2. What makes you think that Republicans are less likely to respond to pollsters? There is a fair amount of evidence that people are generally reluctant to admit to prejudice, odd sexual behavior, drug/alcohol use, and even strongly negative opinions in polls. Are you basing your assumptions about republican poll response deficiency on characteristics they share with those other groups that are known to be reluctant responders? The fact is that extreme conservatives outnumber extreme liberals by about 2:1 (17% vs 8% in the Gallup poll). I've never found either group to be shy about ramming its beliefs down the ears of anyone in range.
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