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Thread: WH Economist....

  1. #11
    Senior Member YardleyLabs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by road kill View Post
    Mr. Yardley,
    In the Forbes article Hatzius talks of "increasing inventories."
    Eveyone I know in the real world (not Govt or Academia) we are fighting to reduce inventory.

    Essentially in the articles you posted I see excuses, not answers or clear assesments.

    "slobbering love affair" regards.....
    Maybe you would prefer the following: http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_.../bci/modem.pdf

    If you bother to read it, you will see that leading indicators began to turn around shortly after the funds began flowing from the stimulus package, ending a decline that started in 2007. Concurrent indicators, as expected, are now beginning to turn around, reflecting a fairly typical 3-6 month lag behind leading indicators. I will admit, however, that I am relying on those well known liberal bastions in quoting from Forbes (who is quoting the lead economist at Goldman) and The Conference Board (a business group).

  2. #12
    Senior Member road kill's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YardleyLabs View Post
    Maybe you would prefer the following: http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_.../bci/modem.pdf

    If you bother to read it, you will see that leading indicators began to turn around shortly after the funds began flowing from the stimulus package, ending a decline that started in 2007. Concurrent indicators, as expected, are now beginning to turn around, reflecting a fairly typical 3-6 month lag behind leading indicators. I will admit, however, that I am relying on those well known liberal bastions in quoting from Forbes (who is quoting the lead economist at Goldman) and The Conference Board (a business group).
    It was a bother and I did read it.

    In there real world, where people have to work, produce & show a profit there is no "upturn" yet.
    They also have seen NO stimulus money.
    Inventories are to high, so nothing is getting manufactured, so no one buys pallets, people are layed off or on reduced hours, so the vending machines in the cafeterias are not selling out (inventory & waste) so the guy who stocks the machines is not getting a new truck this year so the guy who sells the truck (or not) won't be buying the TV at Christmas, so the kid who works at Best Buy won't be selling it and making the commision to spend on stuff for college, so those stores will have excess inventory and won't turn as big a profit.

    Ronald Reagan was on to something!!

    But as long as we are all happy screwing the rich.............
    Stan b & Elvis

  3. #13
    Senior Member TXduckdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YardleyLabs View Post
    Before anyone starts thinking this is an admission of failure, it should be noted that in January, when the stimulus plan was still under discussion, the estimates provided by Romer and other economists were that the proposed stimulus plan would reduce the unemployment rate by about 2% (less than one-third of the projected increase at that time, or about one-fourth of the actual increase experienced). It was never estimated that the stimulus plan would prevent a loss of jobs and consequent increase in unemployment (See, for example, http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/200...n-on-stimulus/). The estimates at that time were that the effect would reach its peak early in 2010 and then decline over the next year. The initial parts of the plan were to have immediate tax cuts that would be paid out in small enough amounts that they would go to spending instead of savings in contrast to previous tax rebate programs, (implemented in February) and to extend unemployment benefits including subsidies for COBRA premiums (done). The spending components of the plan required approval and implementation of capital projects through state governments. This is moving forward with the primary impact not expected until next spring. That benefit should extend the boost already provided. Most economists have estimated that the stimulus plan, as implemented, has boosted economic growth by 2-3% and is the only reason that we now appear to be emerging from the recession that many felt would drive unemployment to 12-15% and last until late 2010 or longer. While that is a lot of good news, the reality is that for the majority of Ammericans jobs are not being created at a level that provides a middle class income. Instead, those jobs are still moving off shore where labor is cheaper.
    Jeff...you sure can paint lipstick on a pig.

    They should have been concentrating on job preservation right from the get go by stimulating business growth,,,instead of tax, tax, tax. How the hell you can quote Krugman is beyond me....talk about voodoo economics.

    Their estimates were wrong.....its already peaked and it's all downhill for 2010.

    Emerging from the recession....with close to 10% unemployment and HC looming on the near horizon???.....brother...you ain't seen nothing yet.


    You are so whistling past the graveyard.
    Train the dog, the ribbons will take care of themselves.

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