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While unemployment has been over 10% before, there are several differences between the last time (early 80's) and today. Some are spelled out in this article http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33766513...ocal_business/ but other facits include that it was manufacturing and housing that brought us out of the 80's recession. This is not likely to happen this time as we have lost a lot of our manufacturing capabilities and the over supply of housing created during the housing bubble.
The closest true example of anything similar to what we have today is the period after the great depression. And it was the war and the manufacturing of war materials that finally got us out of that downturn.
I believe that a lot of wall streets gyrations comes from the fact that there is now a huge amount of money being generated and invested from "self directed" retirement programs such as 401K's. As this money mounts up at the brokerages, and demand is generated that it be invested and that profits be realized, there becomes a feeding frenzy and a bubble in all wall street prices not really supported by historic data.
Is this the only way that you guys can defend all the spending? Keep telling us that we shouldn't say anything about it unless we complained when it happened in the past? What a joke. Obviously, you cannot truly defend your messiah, so you attempt to silence those who disagree with you by calling them hypocrites. Excessive spending wasn't right then and it isn't right now, especially given the circumstances we are in NOW.
I agree that that are historical differences to economic downturns and recoveries. Growth will occur again. It is the nature of the beast. I can't predict where it will come from, I don't know. Maybe a weakening dollar and millions of consumers in counties like India, will give a boost to exports.
I don't believe the sky is falling.
JD
One cannot reason someone out of something they were not reasoned into. - Jonathan Swift
I keep my PM box full. Use email to contact me: rockytopkg@aol.com.
The 10% number is misleading. Half that number were always out of work before the recession. Unemployment rises in a recession, and being a lagging indicator, is among the last to recover.
The company I work for has started hiring new manager trainees in preparation for planned expansion. Sales gains are begining to show.
I appreciate the dilemma of being out of work. Been there done that. When I was, I went to the mountains and cut firewood and dug and balled small pinion trees and sold them out of the back of my truck. Hard work, but it kept me going. Sometimes you have to accept a lesser job, but it still doesn't mean the sky is falling.
JD
One cannot reason someone out of something they were not reasoned into. - Jonathan Swift
I keep my PM box full. Use email to contact me: rockytopkg@aol.com.
Well then, half that number were probably unemployed pre-recession.
Full employment under any administration or economy...the potato that never was.
BTW kg, the unemployment rate that is generally accepted is from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, not from some economist.
JD
Last edited by JDogger; 11-10-2009 at 02:12 PM.
One cannot reason someone out of something they were not reasoned into. - Jonathan Swift
Monthly Unemployment Rate Chart This chart shows the seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate from January 2003 through December 2008. The rate was 5.8 percent in January 2003. It peaked at 6.3 percent in June 2003, and then it began an uneven but steady decline. By December 2003 it had dropped to 5.7 percent, below the level it was at in January of that year. The rate continued to decline till it reached a low of 4.4 percent in October 2006. It rose to 4.6 percent by January of 2007, but declined to 4.4 percent again by March 2007. The rate then underwent an uneven increase until it reached 7.2 percent in December of 2008. (The source is the Bureau of Labor Statistics.)
BLS Series LNS 14,000,000 Seasonal Unemployment Rate 16 years and over YearJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7 2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 2005 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.8 2006 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.74.74.74.84.75.02008 4.94.85.1 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.76.16.16.56.77.0
Did anyone really expect the unemployment rate to drop drastically just because a new President came into office no matter who the President would have been? Stock market was still going down, businesses closing, banks folding, housing being foreclosed on, and so on and so on and so on.
Last edited by Roger Perry; 11-10-2009 at 04:29 PM.