I would not be surprised to see the conservative win. The Democrats are completely demoralized after seeing their party in action during the healthcare reform debate. Obama promised them that a new day was dawning, that the people's interest would be represented, not the interests of the monied corporate special interests.
Obama campaigned for a public option.
He campaigned against Republicans denying the government the right to negotiate drug prices for medicare recipients.
He campaigned against mandates for people to buy health insurance.
He campaigned against taxing high end health plans.
What they got:
No public option.
No reimportation of prescription drugs.
Mandates for people to buy insurance.
A tax on high end health plans.
And this is only a fraction of the issues that have them up in arms.
It's going to be a bloody year for the Dems.