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Thread: So we got this going for us....which is nice...

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    Senior Member K G's Avatar
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    Default So we got this going for us....which is nice...

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    In our fair little city a developer gave his partially built 13 lot development back to the bank. One of the developments homeowners had purchased a home, I'm guessing in the 500K range. There is now a home going up in the same development that is a carbon copy of that home, for 200k less . If the government butts out maybe some sanity will return. I do know that public works contracts are being bid at about 30% less than previously.
    Last edited by Marvin S; 02-05-2010 at 11:20 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marvin S View Post
    In our fair little city a developer gave his partially built 13 lot development back to the bank. One of the developments homeowners had purchased a home, I'm guessing in the 500K range. There is now a home going up in the same develpoment that is a carbon copy of that home, for 200k less . If the government butts out maybe some sanity will return. I do know that public works contracts are being bid at about 30% less than previously.
    So much for any short term worries about inflation. And the article did say that home prices were still falling.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buzz View Post
    So much for any short term worries about inflation. And the article did say that home prices were still falling.
    Inflation is going to come from government overspending. The comment I'm reading quite often, in the financial pages, is people are becoming less inclined to loan their Hard Earned funds to a government that is not a good caretaker of those funds. One can not borrow to fund any event that fails to add value.

    It's beginning to smell like POTUS Carter all over again.
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    Senior Member Uncle Bill's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marvin S View Post
    Inflation is going to come from government overspending. The comment I'm reading quite often, in the financial pages, is people are becoming less inclined to loan their Hard Earned funds to a government that is not a good caretaker of those funds. One can not borrow to fund any event that fails to add value.

    It's beginning to smell like POTUS Carter all over again.

    Are you bracing for the other shoe to drop in 2011, Marvin?

    Based on what I read from some very intellectual investors, 2010 may be a decent year, but come 2011, all hell will break loose.

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    Senior Member Uncle Bill's Avatar
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    FWIW, this is what I fear the most. We are following this path like it was a blueprint sent to the Obama administration. UB

    02/05/10 Baltimore, Maryland –

    Last August, it was reported that deflation in Japan had reached a new record. Prices were dropping at the fastest pace 38 years. By November, it was duration, rather than depth, that got the press’s attention. Prices had been going down for 10 months in a row. Then, last week an update:
    “Japan Deflation Hits a Record Pace,” reported the BBC.

    Prices in Japan were falling faster than they ever had since they began keeping track in 1970. The tide has gone out so far; beachcombers can’t remember when there was so much beach to comb. But what follows is not offered as a prediction, but only out of curiosity. We don’t know how this will turn out. Could it end in hyperinflation? Maybe.

    Prices fall in Japan. The yen rises. And the government uses every trick in the book – and some as yet unpublished – to knock it down. If you are in a position to borrow money from the central bank, the bankers will give it to you at practically zero interest. And if your neighborhood wants a bridge or a community center, that too will be forthcoming from the Japanese government. No government has ever been so generous. At least, not without going broke. For every yen the government squeezes from its taxpayers, it returns more than 2 yen in public spending.

    Investors must think the trend is eternal. Or perhaps they don’t think at all. They lend money to the world’s most spendthrift major government for 10 years in exchange for a yield of only 1.310%.

    The drama of this story is an old and familiar one. Deeply flawed heroes at the world’s central banks and treasury departments think they can do a better job of guiding the economy than the markets themselves. It is they who set the price for short-term money, for example, not willing borrowers and lenders. They are the ones who fight the correction every inch of the way. They are also the ones you don’t want to stand behind; every shot they take backfires.

    In France, the savings rate, as percentage of revenue, has gone up for the last 16 months, to 17% – the highest rate in 27 years. This comes as the Sarkozy government follows the lead of the US and Japan, with a deficit of about 8%…compared to 10% in the US and even higher in Japan. This is not the first time this has happened in France. The previous savings rate peak came when the Mitterrand government was trying to stimulate the economy out of the slump of the early ’80s. The more the government tries to stimulate spending by running deficits, the more people try to protect themselves by saving.

    While the drama continues throughout the world, the story is most advanced in Japan. Which is to say, the central bankers have gotten themselves into deeper trouble. Martin Wolf of The Financial Times and Richard Koo of Nomura Securities applaud their performance. But by trying to suppress a correction in the private sector, Japan’s central bankers have stretched out a slump over two decades and set up the nation for a bigger crisis in the public sector. And there is nothing they can do about it. Their fiscal stimulus no longer stimulates. Their monetary inflation no longer inflates. And every quack cure they offer brings the patient closer to the grave. You might think they’d give up. Instead, they increase the dosage. Fiscal stimulus hits a new record, right along with deflation.

    But it’s the final act that interests us. With public debt at nearly 200% of GDP and 700% of tax revenues, we shouldn’t have to wait much longer. Given the track record, we have to assume that it will be the exact opposite of what central bankers expect. They are aiming for the whimper of newborn growth. More likely, they will get the bang of hyperinflation.

    The Japanese were recently among the champion savers of the world. Directly or indirectly, these savings financed the government’s stimulus efforts. Banks, pension plans, insurance companies – all bought government bonds as a safe way to store wealth. The government then drew upon this stored up wealth to finance its bridges to nowhere and its other boondoggles. The result is a misunderstanding on its way to becoming a disaster. The typical Japanese person looks forward to his retirement with a mountain of savings in his backyard. He believes he still has his cake. The government, however, has eaten it.

    Higher savings rates typically produce lower prices, for a while. Currencies rise. Even in Weimar Germany, there was a period in 1920 when the mark rose. Falling prices would seem to be proof that the money is still there. But the real money is gone. Then, suddenly, people notice that their savings are nothing but paper. The tide turns. Confidence disappears. The big wave of accumulated savings hits the marketplace like a tsunami.

    Desperate people try to get rid of paper. They want something solid to hold onto. Long-term bonds, the most vulnerable to inflation, are exchanged for cash. Cash and government securities flood the market. Prices soar. Middle-class savers drown. Meek debtors, relieved of their burdens in the flood, inherit the world. So do the arrogant debtors in the government. And the shrewd speculators. And then central bankers return to their desks and come up with a new plan.
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    Bill Bonner
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    Quote Originally Posted by TN_LAB View Post
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Bill View Post
    Are you bracing for the other shoe to drop in 2011, Marvin?

    Based on what I read from some very intellectual investors, 2010 may be a decent year, but come 2011, all hell will break loose.

    What's a mother to do?

    UB
    I am paying attention & have unloaded some of those that played out their string, fortunately for a nice profit . I'm not prescient so don't have a clue what's going to happen, can only hope to foresee what I think would normally happen .

    TBS, the money I have in the market is money above & beyond what I originally invested. I started in 1962 when $200 was a big investment for us & found that I could do better than Passbook savings & CD's though that is part of the portfolio. Should the market go down I have several that are in my sights that will get a serious look. Missed some of them in the last buying opportunity so will watch them more closely next time. Plus I do have a couple or so positions that could use some increase. I totally missed GDX last time, won't happen next time. What I have noticed is some of the very strategic minerals perform better than AU.

    Being a SD person born at the start of the depression it's not in my makeup to be a big spender. I still remember burning thistles in 1936 & following the fire along the fenceline with barrels of water in the horse drawn wagon to stop any fence post fire. & if you relieved yourself it was on a post that needed more moisture . Those who saved in those days & purchased distressed goods, including land became very well to do & drive the economy in those areas. In many cases their descendants do not do quite as well. I'm trying to make sure our heirs don't do that while being solid citizens. The one that voted for Obama recognizes he made a rookie mistake & I remind him of same.

    I think most of us recognize that we have a real narcistic rookie as POTUS & he is doing the country no favors. & fortunately some of the so-called POTUS timber on the pseudo conservative side of the aisle have rightfully suffered from being unable to keep their zipper up .

    Aside from that just had my Rotator Cuff done on 1-12, cannot believe how well it is returning to normal. Certainly much easier than the big Bypass.

    You have a pleasant 2010, recognizing I would be living in the Hills were it not that my whole family is extablished out here. In fact, the one who graduated from SD State is becoming quite the cheesemaker.His oldest daughter is our oldest Grand Daughter who just turned 16, we spent the weekend at the farm. I won't make our 60th HS reunion this year in Letcher but am looking at doing the 65th.
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