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Thread: Early Reaction to Health Bill Adoption

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    Senior Member YardleyLabs's Avatar
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    Default Early Reaction to Health Bill Adoption

    From Gallup today:


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    Come on Jeff, you can't believe these types of scientific polls. It is obvious that the question is biased by the left wing. Besides, this does not conclude the same thing as the online polls at Faux news, well except for that last column.

    Wait until you see the bogus bump in President Obama's approval rating. I suppose you will post that too.

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    Senior Member badbullgator's Avatar
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    Just depends on who you ask I guess

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...th_care_reform
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    Senior Member Buzz's Avatar
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    A footnote to the story.

    Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.


    Ah ha ha ha ha ha!
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    Senior Member badbullgator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buzz View Post
    A footnote to the story.

    Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.


    Ah ha ha ha ha ha!

    and USA Today is koolaide free
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    Senior Member YardleyLabs's Avatar
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    I actually found it interesting because it is the first up or down poll on the subject that I have seen where the interviews were all conducted after passage. The question is whether there will be a positive bump simply because the deal is done.

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    Senior Member subroc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Henry V View Post
    Come on Jeff, you can't believe these types of scientific polls...
    do most believe that opinion polls are scientific?
    Last edited by subroc; 03-23-2010 at 05:24 PM.
    subroc

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    Senior Member YardleyLabs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by subroc View Post
    do most believe that opinion polls are scientific?
    Is that a poll question?

    Polling is very scientific but not all pollsters are equal. There is a big difference between posing a poll question to get a measurement of opinion at a point in time and asking a poll question designed to try to influence the opinion or to help "spin" the opinion.

    A poll is never better than the quality of the sampling and the appropriateness of the question asked. Legitimate pollsters routinely ask the same question using different wording to evaluate how the wording affects polling results. They also conduct follow up interviews or non-respondents to see if their opinions very from those of respondents and of respondents using alternative polling methods to determine the effects of the methods used. Rasmussen, for example, uses computer polling where a computer dials the telephone and asks the respondent to record responses by pressing keys on the phone. Gallup uses human interviewers. The two methods produce different results even when the questions are the same. Both use samples of about 1,000 to obtain +/- 3% sample errors with a 95% confidence interval.

    Results from pollsters vary routinely in predictable directions. However, to the extent that they ask the same question over time, trends in responses should vary in similar ways if the pollsters are doing things legitimately.

    Opinion polling began to be taken seriously in the 50's and 60's and has evolved over time. Much of the information on sampling errors is heuristic -- that is calculated based on actual variations between different samples selected using the same methods -- rather than calculated. This is done because the methods used in sampling are NOT random. Rather cluster sampling techniques are typically used with adjustments for known methodological biases.

    Unfortunately, as the political impact of polls in changing opinions became more evident, an increased number of charlatans entered the field.

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    Senior Member BonMallari's Avatar
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    Polls come out depending on who commissioned them (paid to have them done), it takes $$$ to take polls and news organizations will commission Gallup,Rasmussen, Field and other "independent" research groups to get the data to support their positions on certain subject matters

    The House overlooked or ignored many of these polls but will not be able to discount the polls in November
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    Senior Member YardleyLabs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BonMallari View Post
    Polls come out depending on who commissioned them (paid to have them done), it takes $$$ to take polls and news organizations will commission Gallup,Rasmussen, Field and other "independent" research groups to get the data to support their positions on certain subject matters

    The House overlooked or ignored many of these polls but will not be able to discount the polls in November
    More and more often, polling is actually paid on a subscription basis by multiple users with different agendas that may be competing. That helps to reduce bias while also reducing the cost to each subscriber of a poll that is well done. Costs for good polling are very high and most people paying the bill actually want to know real results so that they can adopt strategies to influence those opinions more effectively. Gallup has actually taken a lead in refusing polls that are financed by organizations with a direct stake in the results (e.g., they do not do candidate polling for elections). Others, including Rasmussen, rely on partisan sponsorship to finance much or most of their business.

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