Sending jobs to other countries is a reality. I can think of only two reasons to do that: to control labor cost or seek out a better tax environment.I think many businesses will announce cut backs in benefits over time and say things like "It's cheaper to pay the penalty than to pay for benefits." Those that say this are blowing smoke.
We can't really assess this until we see whether the CBO is right about the cost of coverage increasing by $2300 to $2500 per year. It may not help those employees of smaller companies not required to provide health coverage.The Ultimate 2-3% penalty for individuals is roughly equivalent to what people with employer sponsored health insurance pay for their coverage. Once subsidies are in full force, it is also pretty close to the cost that would be faced by lower income participants after the effect of subsidies is considered.
Under this bill, the employers are required to provide coverage (if they have "X" # of employees or more; or have average payroll of "X"). Does this mean that you anticipate that this will be changed, i.e. the requirement & attendant penalty will be removed? I guess they just had to say that everyone could keep their present coverage so that they could get a bill passed?Over the next 20 years I expect that all American businesses will stop providing health care benefits simply to preserve their competitive position in a world where no other country places this burden on the private sector.
At this point the govt provides a subsidy (Medicare or Medicaid), and then provides the claim service. At this point the Medicare coverage is designed by the govt. Where it falls short, the participant then acquires additional coverage at their own expense.Where the government currently provides claim payment services (Medicare through State governments and Medicare through the Federal government), private third party payer companies provide almost all services.
When the provisions of "basic" coverage are ultimately precisely delineated, then individuals will know whether and to what extent they will want/need to add additional coverage to fill any gaps. But they will have to be careful about getting into the "luxury" plan category (which, as I understand it are NOT indexed; so if costs for coverage increase, more people will find themselves in "luxury" plans?).
There will also now be a provision for govt regulating the increases that private insurors propose. How long before private insurors decide to get out of the business, and just provide the "gap" coverages as they do with Medicare? Without control of the costs of the services themselves, insuring the costs of those services inevitably has to increase as the costs of the services increase.
While the govt has no present intention to employ the doctors and own the hospital facilities, by controlling the reimbursement schedules, I feel it is inevitable that there will eventually be rules such as exist in UK and Scandanavian countries whereby treatments are allocated on a cost v. benefit basis.
So, the private insurors could ultimately simply become claims processing subcontractors. Thus, not all their employees will have to seek out jobs with the Federal govt OTOH, Federal employees do not have to belong to Soc Security; they get a better deal.There are no Federal bureaucrats processing medical claims now.