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Thread: september jobs

  1. #21
    Senior Member road kill's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YardleyLabs View Post
    Approximately 3.25 million jobs have been lost since Obama became President. Total employment peaked at about 138 milion jobs in December 2007. 6.4 million jobs were then lost over the next 13 months of Bush's presidency. Almost 4 million jobs were lost over the balance of 2009, and the total number of jobs has grown over 500,000 since then. Government jobs dropped 100,000 in the first 11 months of the Obama Presidency and have dropped another 250,000 jobs during 2009. The rate of job loss began declining as soon as the stimulus program was adopted in March 2009. but job growth did not begin until the beginning of 2010. Private sector jobs have grown consistently since then with a net loss of government jobs, despite the temporary addition of 500,000 census workers.

    BTW, the "authoritative" source of employment data is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. You can request customized tables and get the results directly from their database. I looked at seasonally adjusted, non-farm total employment and total government employment. You can also customize the time period of data reported for any period since 1939. The link is shown in my prior post.

    Of course there is this little tid bit.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6955IX20101007






    RK
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  2. #22
    Senior Member Gerry Clinchy's Avatar
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    Approximately 3.25 million jobs have been lost since Obama became President. Total employment peaked at about 138 milion jobs in December 2007. 6.4 million jobs were then lost over the next 13 months of Bush's presidency. Almost 4 million jobs were lost over the balance of 2009, and the total number of jobs has grown over 500,000 since then. Government jobs dropped 100,000 in the first 11 months of the Obama Presidency and have dropped another 250,000 jobs during 2009. The rate of job loss began declining as soon as the stimulus program was adopted in March 2009. but job growth did not begin until the beginning of 2010. Private sector jobs have grown consistently since then with a net loss of government jobs, despite the temporary addition of 500,000 census workers.
    I'm confused ... if employment peaked in Dec. 2007 at 138,000,000 jobs, that is a bit over a third of the total population working. Seems fair to presume that at least 1/3 of our population would be children below working age. If unemployment in Dec. 2007 was 5% (which is considered "normal", I believe), that means that 95% of those wanting to work were employed (138,000,000) ... meaning the total workforce "available" would be 145,263,000. So, in Dec. 2007 there were 7,263,000 unemployed.

    You mention that an additional 10.4 million jobs were lost thru the end of 2009, and .5 million regained since then ... net loss of 9.9 million jobs ... based on those figures the present rate of unemployment should be more than 10% (remember 7.2 million represented 5% unemployed)

    If the published rate of unemployment is 8.6% ... then our workforce has grown? or people have stopped looking for work?

    If the rate of job loss started declining as soon as the stimulus bill was adopted in March 2009, that doesn't exactly make sense either. The stimulus couldn't "kick in" as soon as O signed the bill. So, does that mean that jobs were "recovering" even before the stimulus $ started to flow?

    A small local township received $500,000 to make their municipal building(s) more energy efficient. Once that project is done, those jobs are also gone. The township will save some money on heating & cooling (and maybe lighting) ... but did anyone look at the amount of payback based on the $ expended? If the township saves $5000/year, it will take 100 years for that project to break even. At $10,000/year, it will still take 50 years to break even.

    Point being, was this stimulus $ used wisely. I recall someone mentioning building rail service between point A & point B ... except it made no sense to put rail service on that route. Still believing that our best use of rail service would be for cargo.
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  3. #23
    Senior Member YardleyLabs's Avatar
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    Gerry,

    I didn't quote anything because of length, but will try to address your points. Employment data attempts to measure directly the actual number of people working (there are separate reports addressing the number so hours being worked, which are also important). Unemployment rates measure the number of people who are unemployed and actively seeking employment. During major downturns, many people give up on looking for jobs. They may open their own "businesses" to do freelance work, they may go back to school, or they may simply drop out of the job market (e.g. become a full time parent). While those people are still largely unemployed, they are no longer counted. When things begin to turn around, many of these people will reenter the job market, making unemployment go up even as total employment increases. When there is a boom and very low unemployment, even more will reenter the job market, creating odd fluctuations. This makes unemployment rates a bit tricky as indicators of economic change.

    The stimulus program was adopted in March and began to have almost an instantaneous impact. The first part was a major tax cut that went almost unnoticed because it was embedded in weekly paychecks in such small amounts that virtually every dime went to new consumption. Treasury was able to make this happen in only a few weeks. This was a political disaster when compared with the programs that sent people $300 checks. However, it was economically brilliant. Almost none of those $300 checks went to consumption; they went to pay down debt which does nothing for stimulus. The tax cut put tens of billions into circulation over a period of a few months, with the first impact in April.

    The other immediate action was to reduce the cost of COBRA for unemployed persons and to offer extended unemployment benefits for people whose benefits were expiring. These also took effect during the spring. Over a period of the first few months, there were also grants to states -- primarily in the form of decreased state contributions to Medicaid -- that saved many state jobs. The net impact of all of these actions was a major stimulus in record time. While the impact was largely invisible politically, those actions were credited by most economists with a 2-3% increase in GDP beginning in the second calendar quarter. Construction projects, by contrast, did not begin having a real effect until a year later and that effect is only dying down now as the construction season comes to a close.

    One of the reasons we will begin to see some contraction economically is that the stimulus program has almost ended and the funds flow has already declined. The administration would like to add to it given sluggish growth, and there are good arguments in favor of such a policy. Personally, on balance, I do not think those actions are worth the additional deficit.

    In fact, I believe that, regardless of the outcome of the election, we will begin to see more sustained growth over the next year, but that job growth will remain anemic despite healthy GDP growth and stock market gains. The problem is that our corporate investment will continue to go out of the country where labor costs are lower and growth in consumer spending is stronger.

    The starvation of the American consumer market will continue to depress our economy until there are fundamental changes that reduce the cost of hiring American workers and reduce the tax incentives for American businesses in moving jobs out of the country. There are three avenues for doing this: reduce employer contributions for employee health care, reduce employer contributions for employee pensions (primarily social security), and reduce corporate taxes. Each of these actions increases the deficit. I believe some significant changes are needed here even if it requires a mix of new taxes and major spending cuts to contain the deficit impact.

  4. #24
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    yardley - if you are so smart, why arent you running for president? or at least the school board?

    no matter what anyone says negative about the current administration, you are quick to spin it to a positive. if your spin it so positive, why isnt it working? and why so verbose? i bet no one ever reads your pompous posts to their entirety. and why is the obama admin not spinning as well as you? you seem to have all the answers, so either you are a wasted resource and the true messiah lost in the quagmire - or you are just a blowhard. a mensa candidate that is lost in the minions.....so sad. i see you as dwight schmoot, trying soooo hard to be --- --- relevant.......................................... .................................................. .................................................. ..............................

    i really dont get it. i train all day and come back and you are still posting. its not dead of winter, its not dog days of summer - its prime training time for us all! yet here you are researching and posting posts that wax so eloquently to the issue at hand......
    and who really cares? not me! i have been training and have a test this weekend......thats all i care about now

    go ahead - tell us about how the dnp relates to the average era of the al vs the relative relationship of the al era vs the afc qb rating. i am sure you have it allllll figured out....


    have at it - i am playing with dogs all weekend....

  5. #25
    Senior Member YardleyLabs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by david gibson View Post
    yardley - if you are so smart, why arent you running for president? or at least the school board?

    no matter what anyone says negative about the current administration, you are quick to spin it to a positive. if your spin it so positive, why isnt it working? and why so verbose? i bet no one ever reads your pompous posts to their entirety. and why is the obama admin not spinning as well as you? you seem to have all the answers, so either you are a wasted resource and the true messiah lost in the quagmire - or you are just a blowhard. a mensa candidate that is lost in the minions.....so sad. i see you as dwight schmoot, trying soooo hard to be --- --- relevant.......................................... .................................................. .................................................. ..............................

    i really dont get it. i train all day and come back and you are still posting. its not dead of winter, its not dog days of summer - its prime training time for us all! yet here you are researching and posting posts that wax so eloquently to the issue at hand......
    and who really cares? not me! i have been training and have a test this weekend......thats all i care about now

    go ahead - tell us about how the dnp relates to the average era of the al vs the relative relationship of the al era vs the afc qb rating. i am sure you have it allllll figured out....


    have at it - i am playing with dogs all weekend....
    I did my period in politics and am not looking to do it again. I was scheduled to be photographing a trial today, but decided that I needed to stay close since I have a dog that should deliver anytime between now and Monday who will probably need a c-section. Sorry if my posts bother you. I don't think the Obama administration would be at all happy with my suggestions since they run counter to what they are trying to do.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by YardleyLabs View Post
    I did my period in politics and am not looking to do it again. I was scheduled to be photographing a trial today, but decided that I needed to stay close since I have a dog that should deliver anytime between now and Monday who will probably need a c-section. Sorry if my posts bother you. I don't think the Obama administration would be at all happy with my suggestions since they run counter to what they are trying to do.
    exactly. you are even more left than they are.

    what a hero you are...

  7. #27
    Senior Member JDogger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by david gibson View Post
    have at it - i am playing with dogs all weekend....
    Let's see, You're going to a HT, Jeff is having pups, I'm going to the opener for the northern part of the state. Over on the main forum, folks are bleeding over FT rules and regs, and entry fees and #'S
    Seems to me no one here is hurting too bad.

    Some of you just like to carp.

    "We spin something negative and someone else spins it positive"...Waaaah!

    Get ready... your team is on the one-yard line, and when they score, we want to see overnight results. Don't go, "we inherited a mess, don't blame us."
    We've already heard that.

    What goes around, comes around regards, JD
    One cannot reason someone out of something they were not reasoned into. - Jonathan Swift

  8. #28
    Senior Member tom's Avatar
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    if your spin it so positive, why isn't it working?
    By who's standards isn't it working?

    Oh wait, you want Obama to snap his fingers and create a job for everyone in the land.
    Sorry ain't gonna' happen! Government has no ability to do that regardless of which party is in power.

    Just because the GOP has said that it isn't working 10 million times doesn't make it so.

    At least my IRA's are starting to show a little recovery, maybe I'll be able to stay retired after all.

    yardley - if you are so smart, why arent you running for president? or at least the school board?
    I ran for dog catcher once, does that count?

    As I see it, my responsibility is to become as informed as I can and then VOTE
    So you now have less than a month to change my mind! (why did you think I was bothering to post on here?)
    Last edited by tom; 10-08-2010 at 11:45 PM.
    "there is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance --- that principle is contempt prior to investigation."
    Herbert Spencer

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by david gibson View Post
    down 95,000!!

    didnt biden say we would be adding 500,000 a month by now?? yeah, lovin that recovery summer!

    this proves they have no clue what they are doing. i agree with stuart varney - the dems shot themselves in the foot by not voting on the tax cut extensions. who wants to hire when the future is so uncertain? who wants to have to lay off who you just hired when taxes go up again next january??

    idiots idiots idiots
    Think about the absurdity of your statement. No tax cuts = no jobs... I assume you're referring to the Bush tax cuts of a decade ago. Those tax cuts have been and still are in effect. How many jobs do you credit them with? Logically, judging by the present and the past performance, those tax cuts have little to no impact on job creation in America. Why would they? You don't hire somebody because you got a tax break. You hire somebody because there is a demand for what they do.

    Americans are indeed stupid. I'm sorry to say. The economy has recovered. The job market has not. Why do you suppose that is? Could it be that there are other factors impeding the recovery of Jobs in America? Might it be the same factor that has been restricting job growth for the last 10 years and has nothing to do with which party is in control of government?
    Put on your pondering shoes folks. You're completely missing the boat on what is and has happened to the US job picture.
    Wall Street is doing just fine thank you. Look at the market. They're all making money faster than they can count it. And they're not paying any taxes either. Exxon Mobil and GE paid zero federal income taxes for 2009. Go figure. Business is expanding in just about every sector. So where are all those jobs going? Think hard now. Your future may depend on it.

  10. #30
    Senior Member tom's Avatar
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    Think hard now. Your future may depend on it.
    Guess we will have to sneek into Mexico so that we can work in a GM plant.
    "there is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance --- that principle is contempt prior to investigation."
    Herbert Spencer

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