'Tightening' races?

[Roger Perry]

Carrie Dann writes: It's been a recurrent theme throughout the last days of this midterm election cycle: "New poll shows [Insert Senate race that didn't seem competitive three weeks ago] is tightening."
According to some polls, candidates in a handful of states have made apparent gains after months of trailing. In Pennsylvania, two new surveys show Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak – who has struggled to stay within striking distance of Republican Pat Toomey since the state's May primary – now polling within the margin of error. A St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio poll released Tuesday put Democrat Russ Feingold just two points behind GOP nominee Ron Johnson. In the pricey (and contentious) California Senate contest, a new PPIC poll shows GOP candidate Carly Fiorina catching up with incumbent Barbara Boxer. Gaps have also seemingly closed in Colorado and Alaska.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news...itics-as-usual

[road kill]

Carrie Dann writes: It's been a recurrent theme throughout the last days of this midterm election cycle: "New poll shows [Insert Senate race that didn't seem competitive three weeks ago] is tightening."
According to some polls, candidates in a handful of states have made apparent gains after months of trailing. In Pennsylvania, two new surveys show Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak – who has struggled to stay within striking distance of Republican Pat Toomey since the state's May primary – now polling within the margin of error. A St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio poll released Tuesday put Democrat Russ Feingold just two points behind GOP nominee Ron Johnson. In the pricey (and contentious) California Senate contest, a new PPIC poll shows GOP candidate Carly Fiorina catching up with incumbent Barbara Boxer. Gaps have also seemingly closed in Colorado and Alaska.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news...itics-as-usual

Yeah, your probly right, the Democrats will win almost every contest!!


RK

[subroc]

Yeah, your probly right, the Democrats will win almost every contest!!


RK

I expect Roger just wet his pants over that comment.

But, Russ Feingold will go down in flames. this could be a 10 point margin.

[road kill]

I expect Roger just wet his pants over that comment.

But, Russ Feingold will go down in flames. this could be a 10 point margin.

Believe me, Russ has EARNED what he's got comin!!!


RK

[YardleyLabs]

I actually receive emails 5-6 times per day telling me how close the races have become. However, they are not really addressing the likely voter part of the equation.

I suspect that the Democrats will face heavy losses and possibly even lose control in both houses. However, that could turn around completely if Democrat go to the polls. Things are certainly a lot closer today than they were four weeks ago.

The Republicans are suffering from having fielded really weak candidates in some critical races (New York, Delaware, Arizona) and from the fact that the electorate is motivated by dislike for the Obama administration, but hates Congress even more (with Congressional Republicans ranking lower than Congressional Democrats) and Republicans in general only a little bit less. All of that combines to make the outcome less predictable and the "mandate" received by the victors non-existent.

The real battle over the next two years will be for control of the Republican party. Today, the tea party is winning that battle. If it continues to succeed and does not moderate its positions, the possibility of splitting the Republican party goes up and the likelihood of success goes down.

Several days ago, Franco posted the Gallup poll findings that 46% of the population felth that their personal freedom was threatened by the government. This represented only a 2% increase since 2006-2007. However, the make up of those who are fearful changed dramatically, as shown below:


Personally, I would have answered that I felt threatened by the government in 2006 and 2010. I find it hard to believe that so few Republicans felt threatened by the Bush administration and that so few Democrats feel threatened by the Obama administration. The worst thought, however, is that Democrats and Republicans may actually have been right in 2006 and right in 2010. Maybe the parties have polarized to such an extent that they are now real threats to all who disagree or do not fit the mold of the target "demographic". If that is the case, we have almost no future as a world power.

[BonMallari]

the media are nothing but shills for the political parties....just like ESPN is a shill for the Vegas sportsbooks...the media tells you that candidate A is ahead by X amount of points in their latest poll, so of course John Q Sheeple voter dosesnt want to admit that they voted for the loser so they vote for the front runner...

ESPN tells everyone that THE Ohio St Buckeyes are going to beat Wisconsin by two touchdowns maybe more, so everyone and their kid sister bets Ohio St minus the spread...only they forgot to tell Wisconsin who kicked the Buckeyes butts from the get go and won the game convincingly...

How many people will admit they voted for Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bush 43 (second term)...and of course BHO....very few but somehow all these guys won, because people are sheeple and choose their candidates the same way they pick their laundry detergent..Madison Ave advertising...

[subroc]

...The real battle over the next two years will be for control of the Republican party. Today, the tea party is winning that battle. If it continues to succeed and does not moderate its positions, the possibility of splitting the Republican party goes up and the likelihood of success goes down...

That is what democrats believe or at least like to posit.

I expect a more believable truth is the electorate, after watching obama, pilosi and reid in action were horrified with the shift to the extreme left the democrat party had taken and it will take eons for the nation to give any trust back to the democrats.

BTW, what qualification do you believe gives you insight into the republican psyche to present such a claim?

[road kill]

That is what democrats believe or at least like to posit.

I expect a more believable truth is the electorate, after watching obama, pilosi and reid in action were horrified with the shift to the extreme left the democrat party had taken and it will take eons for the nation to give any trust back to the democrats.

BTW, what qualification do you believe gives you insight into the republican psyche to present such a claim?

He knows everything!!
It has been proven time and again.......

RK

[dnf777]

The Republicans are suffering from having fielded really weak candidates in some critical races (New York, Delaware, Arizona) and from the fact that the electorate is motivated by dislike for the Obama administration, but hates Congress even more (with Congressional Republicans ranking lower than Congressional Democrats) and Republicans in general only a little bit less.

At least one weak candidate who shares a media market with a neighboring state may have far-reaching effects. If Sestak can link Toomey with O'Donnel (who share the Philly/south NJ/Delaware market) she may drag him down to defeat in what's shaping up to be a very close race.

I can't believe a wall-street raider is even in the same race as a 30 year Navy veteran! Who's the elitist in this race?

[YardleyLabs]

That is what democrats believe or at least like to posit.

I expect a more believable truth is the electorate, after watching obama, pilosi and reid in action were horrified with the shift to the extreme left the democrat party had taken and it will take eons for the nation to give any trust back to the democrats.

BTW, what qualification do you believe gives you insight into the republican psyche to present such a claim?

No insight to anyone's psyche (that's my ex's job). Lots of experience reading and interpreting polling data for elections -- too much to dismiss things simply because I don't like the answers. As much as tea party and others claim the overwhelming support of the public, that support isn't there. Despite the many missteps of Democrats, the "generic ballot" shows a statistical tie between Republicans and Democrats.

What is different is that Democrats are demoralized by continued problems in the economy, while Republicans are as highly motivated today as Democrats were in 2008. If Democrats remain passive and stay away from the polls, Republicans will have massive gains. That could change quickly, although I do not believe it will in time to prevent major losses.

Once in power, Republicans will not be excused for failure to perform without regard to what the White House and Democrats do. However, nobody will accomplish anything that is part of the core agenda of either Republicans or Democrats. That is true because neither party will have the votes needed to pass anything except through compromise and, more importantly, because the American people do not support the core agendas of either party.