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Thread: 'Tightening' races?

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by YardleyLabs View Post
    I actually receive emails 5-6 times per day telling me how close the races have become. However, they are not really addressing the likely voter part of the equation.

    I suspect that the Democrats will face heavy losses and possibly even lose control in both houses. However, that could turn around completely if Democrat go to the polls. Things are certainly a lot closer today than they were four weeks ago.

    The Republicans are suffering from having fielded really weak candidates in some critical races (New York, Delaware, Arizona) and from the fact that the electorate is motivated by dislike for the Obama administration, but hates Congress even more (with Congressional Republicans ranking lower than Congressional Democrats) and Republicans in general only a little bit less. All of that combines to make the outcome less predictable and the "mandate" received by the victors non-existent.

    The real battle over the next two years will be for control of the Republican party. Today, the tea party is winning that battle. If it continues to succeed and does not moderate its positions, the possibility of splitting the Republican party goes up and the likelihood of success goes down.

    Several days ago, Franco posted the Gallup poll findings that 46% of the population felth that their personal freedom was threatened by the government. This represented only a 2% increase since 2006-2007. However, the make up of those who are fearful changed dramatically, as shown below:


    Personally, I would have answered that I felt threatened by the government in 2006 and 2010. I find it hard to believe that so few Republicans felt threatened by the Bush administration and that so few Democrats feel threatened by the Obama administration. The worst thought, however, is that Democrats and Republicans may actually have been right in 2006 and right in 2010. Maybe the parties have polarized to such an extent that they are now real threats to all who disagree or do not fit the mold of the target "demographic". If that is the case, we have almost no future as a world power.
    The Republicans also suffer from an acute lack of ideas. To the voters with their thinking caps on, the Republican party is completely lacking in substance. As much as we despise the democratic leadership, there is no way in hell we can support the Republican party. Not all Americans have forgot the policies that crashed the economy from 2001 - 2008. Those are the same tired and failed policies the current round of Republicans are peddling.

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by depittydawg View Post
    The Republicans also suffer from an acute lack of ideas...
    Here are their ideas.


    http://www.gop.com/2008Platform/2008platform.pdf
    subroc

    Article [I.]
    Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.
    Article [II.]
    A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

  3. #13
    Senior Member road kill's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YardleyLabs View Post
    No insight to anyone's psyche (that's my ex's job). Lots of experience reading and interpreting polling data for elections -- too much to dismiss things simply because I don't like the answers. As much as tea party and others claim the overwhelming support of the public, that support isn't there. Despite the many missteps of Democrats, the "generic ballot" shows a statistical tie between Republicans and Democrats.

    What is different is that Democrats are demoralized by continued problems in the economy, while Republicans are as highly motivated today as Democrats were in 2008. If Democrats remain passive and stay away from the polls, Republicans will have massive gains. That could change quickly, although I do not believe it will in time to prevent major losses.

    Once in power, Republicans will not be excused for failure to perform without regard to what the White House and Democrats do. However, nobody will accomplish anything that is part of the core agenda of either Republicans or Democrats. That is true because neither party will have the votes needed to pass anything except through compromise and, more importantly, because the American people do not support the core agendas of either party.
    And "if" the Republicans gain control of the House & Senate what will be the obstacle to relieveing "gridlock?"

    It won't be the Republicans, your side already played that card when you had a super majority.

    It will be Obama.
    I predict he will not yield or compromise a bit, blaming Republicans for his failures as they continue to mount.

    In the end, this grand social experiment will be one of the great failures in American history.

    This of course based on my readings and poll work for a state assemblyman (Republican) here in New Berlin WI.
    (who actually won his election)

    In those efforts I met NOONE who supported or praised Obama for what he has done.
    The feelings run deep and hot in these parts.
    Can't speak fpr PA, but in WI you are going to see a traditionally liberal state make an unprecedented and massive move to the right.

    Scott Walker---Governer--Conservative
    Ron Johnson---Senator--Conservative
    Leah Vukmir--State Assembly---Conservative
    Rebecca Kleefish--Lt Governer--Conservative

    Just to list a few.

    Tell me Yardley where I am wrong here in WI??
    Check and see what the numbers are here.
    They are LOP SIDED, not getting closer.
    Each of these candidates has double digit leads.

    When I had the HONOR of speaking to MEN who served their country in WW II and Korea I was astonished at their responses.
    Grown men with tears in their eyes asking "what has happened to my country?"
    "This is exactly what we fought against!!"

    Of course, you know better........this is your dream.


    The circus & the KLOWNS are leaving town.



    RK
    Last edited by road kill; 10-22-2010 at 06:50 AM.
    Stan b & Elvis

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by depittydawg View Post
    The Republicans also suffer from an acute lack of ideas. To the voters with their thinking caps on, the Republican party is completely lacking in substance. As much as we despise the democratic leadership, there is no way in hell we can support the Republican party. Not all Americans have forgot the policies that crashed the economy from 2001 - 2008. Those are the same tired and failed policies the current round of Republicans are peddling.
    LOL so you think if you just keep saying republicans have no ideas enough even you would actually believe it? Your thinking cap is broke sir go to one of the "big business" you despise so much for a repair~

  5. #15
    Senior Member Julie R.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YardleyLabs View Post

    What is different is that Democrats are demoralized by continued problems in the economy, while Republicans are as highly motivated today as Democrats were in 2008. If Democrats remain passive and stay away from the polls, Republicans will have massive gains. That could change quickly, although I do not believe it will in time to prevent major losses.
    What is different is the scale-tipping voters of 2008, didn't get all the free sh!# they were promised, so unless there's a candidate with stronger Hopium than the Hopey-Changey guy, they won't bother to vote at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dnf777 View Post
    I can't believe a friend to terrorists and America haters is even in the same race as a 20+ year Navy veteran and former POW! Who's the elitist in this race?
    Couldn't help myself...You wouldn't be outraged in a situation like this, would you?

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by road kill View Post
    Yeah, your probly right, the Democrats will win almost every contest!!


    RK
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Roger Perry
    Carrie Dann writes: It's been a recurrent theme throughout the last days of this midterm election cycle: "New poll shows [Insert Senate race that didn't seem competitive three weeks ago] is tightening."
    According to some polls, candidates in a handful of states have made apparent gains after months of trailing. In Pennsylvania, two new surveys show Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak who has struggled to stay within striking distance of Republican Pat Toomey since the state's May primary now polling within the margin of error. A St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio poll released Tuesday put Democrat Russ Feingold just two points behind GOP nominee Ron Johnson. In the pricey (and contentious) California Senate contest, a new PPIC poll shows GOP candidate Carly Fiorina catching up with incumbent Barbara Boxer. Gaps have also seemingly closed in Colorado and Alaska.

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news...itics-as-usual


    Yeah, your probly right, the Democrats will win almost every contest!!


    RK


    RK, If you notice that both parties are included in my post not just Democrats

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by road kill View Post
    It will be Obama.
    I predict he will not yield or compromise a bit, blaming Republicans for his failures as they continue to mount.

    In the end, this grand social experiment will be one of the great failures in American history.

    This of course based on my readings and poll work for a state assemblyman (Republican) here in New Berlin WI.
    (who actually won his election)

    In those efforts I met NOONE who supported or praised Obama for what he has done.
    The feelings run deep and hot in these parts.
    Can't speak fpr PA, but in WI you are going to see a traditionally liberal state make an unprecedented and massive move to the right.

    Scott Walker---Governer--Conservative
    Ron Johnson---Senator--Conservative
    Leah Vukmir--State Assembly---Conservative
    Rebecca Kleefish--Lt Governer--Conservative

    Just to list a few.

    Tell me Yardley where I am wrong here in WI??
    Check and see what the numbers are here.
    They are LOP SIDED, not getting closer.
    Each of these candidates has double digit leads.

    When I had the HONOR of speaking to MEN who served their country in WW II and Korea I was astonished at their responses.
    Grown men with tears in their eyes asking "what has happened to my country?"
    "This is exactly what we fought against!!"

    Of course, you know better........this is your dream.


    The circus & the KLOWNS are leaving town.



    RK
    Good for you, RK. It's nice to see peoiple put an effort where their beliefs are .

    I do notice the absence by the defenders of all things BHO when it comes to arguing with facts. Without some peanuthead to quote they are lost as they have little original thought . The only reason some of these races are being called "close" is to jar the lethargic into pulling a lever.

    In our state (WA) being a D gets you an automatic 10 points. But this year there are some great initiatives besides the Murray-Rossi senate race.

    Initiatives - Privatize the State liquor stores, Privatize workmens Comp, An Income Tax on the high earners (sponsored by Bill Gates dad, partner in a law firm that does a lot of state business), Repeal the tax on food that was instituted by the legislature this last spring, An initiative to require a 2/3 rds vote on all tax increases by the legislature! Needless to say, the public employees unions oppose all but the income tax. It's apparently not enough to retire after 30 years, regardless of age, have a cola when you reach 65, they also want to be the beneficiaries of stress induced retirements through workmens comp so they pay no taxes on the income .

    But the Murray- Rossi race is interesting. The campaign ads are better than regular TV, which don't require much. BHO has been here twice, Bill Clinton once & someone said next week will bring Michelle, WOW . The funny thing about all this, is those who are not party regulars are now saying, What's this costing us in extra security, traffic snarls, etc. BHO may be the best thing that ever happened, he's tone deaf & the populace is waking up, which is not a good thing for his brand.

    But best of all, there is no GWB (though he was not a real R) clamor as the people are waking up to the fact that these Clowns have been in charge for some time & are proving they are not up to performing the task!
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  9. #19
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    Personally, I hope the republicans take the government top to bottom. In fact, I wish they'd have done that in 2008.
    "For everyone to whom much is given, of him shall much be required." -- Luke 12:48

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  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marvin S View Post
    Good for you, RK. It's nice to see peoiple put an effort where their beliefs are .

    I do notice the absence by the defenders of all things BHO when it comes to arguing with facts. Without some peanuthead to quote they are lost as they have little original thought . The only reason some of these races are being called "close" is to jar the lethargic into pulling a lever.

    In our state (WA) being a D gets you an automatic 10 points. But this year there are some great initiatives besides the Murray-Rossi senate race.

    Initiatives - Privatize the State liquor stores, Privatize workmens Comp, An Income Tax on the high earners (sponsored by Bill Gates dad, partner in a law firm that does a lot of state business), Repeal the tax on food that was instituted by the legislature this last spring, An initiative to require a 2/3 rds vote on all tax increases by the legislature! Needless to say, the public employees unions oppose all but the income tax. It's apparently not enough to retire after 30 years, regardless of age, have a cola when you reach 65, they also want to be the beneficiaries of stress induced retirements through workmens comp so they pay no taxes on the income .

    But the Murray- Rossi race is interesting. The campaign ads are better than regular TV, which don't require much. BHO has been here twice, Bill Clinton once & someone said next week will bring Michelle, WOW . The funny thing about all this, is those who are not party regulars are now saying, What's this costing us in extra security, traffic snarls, etc. BHO may be the best thing that ever happened, he's tone deaf & the populace is waking up, which is not a good thing for his brand.

    But best of all, there is no GWB (though he was not a real R) clamor as the people are waking up to the fact that these Clowns have been in charge for some time & are proving they are not up to performing the task!
    Yeah but unforunately Rossi is a boob and after watching the debate the other day on TV i see why he lost the last two times he ran. He can't answer a question to save his life and unfortunately Patty Murray picked up on that and called him out on it. They were straight forward questions where I thought he should've lit Patty up on her record AND been able to say how he would change. Instead he changed the subject. It felt like watching a Sarah Palin debate all over again.

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