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Thread: Politics of Polling

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    Senior Member YardleyLabs's Avatar
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    Default Politics of Polling

    The polls conducted during the mid-term elections showed some interesting results about the pollsters themselves. In particular, Rasmussen, the most prolific of the pollsters fared the worst. Of the ten top polling firms, Rasmussen was not only the least accurate in its projections during the last three weeks of the campaign, it was also the second most biased in its assessments, most of which were done under contract with Fox. Most accurate and least biased were the Qnnipiac polls.




    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...gly/#more-3323
    Unfortunately, it seems that the mix of a low cost approach to polling plus a strong political bias by the owner have produced a poor mix if your interest is accurate results. The linked story is very interesting and provides some good insight.

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    Senior Member subroc's Avatar
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    The only poll that matters is the election,

    I never really understood exit polling. The results will tell what happened.

    BTW, if your into polling, the rolling average from real clear gives a pretty good picture.
    subroc

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    whooooop teee doo dah de. in the end they were all accurate, they predicted the demise of The Apolgist's agenda. even though Rasmussen was the least accurate, i'd call that margin of error insignificant because in the end it was accurate. how long are you going to dissect the voice of america to try to make sense of it? the sense is this - The Apologist and his agenda have been rejected. the masses that followed him blindly in 2008 abandoned him in 2010, except for a few rainbow visionaries.....

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    Senior Member YardleyLabs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by david gibson View Post
    whooooop teee doo dah de. in the end they were all accurate, they predicted the demise of The Apolgist's agenda. even though Rasmussen was the least accurate, i'd call that margin of error insignificant because in the end it was accurate. how long are you going to dissect the voice of america to try to make sense of it? the sense is this - The Apologist and his agenda have been rejected. the masses that followed him blindly in 2008 abandoned him in 2010, except for a few rainbow visionaries.....

    life without Acorn is tough baby! LOL
    There is no question that Republicans made major gains in the House and minor gains in the Senate. With their major gains in the House, the Republicans may have their largest house majority since the 1946 election. However, that simply tells you how poorly Republicans have done over time. If the Democrats ended up with 245 seats (we can still only guess the size of the final Republican majority since eight seats are undecided), it would rate as the Democrats 17th biggest win since 1946. The voice of America speaks in many tongues with many different messages. As it stands today, it is pretty evenly divided between D's and R's but, on the whole, the electorate thinks both parties are filled with crooks.

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    Senior Member duckheads's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YardleyLabs View Post
    There is no question that Republicans made major gains in the House and minor gains in the Senate. With their major gains in the House, the Republicans may have their largest house majority since the 1946 election. However, that simply tells you how poorly Republicans have done over time. If the Democrats ended up with 245 seats (we can still only guess the size of the final Republican majority since eight seats are undecided), it would rate as the Democrats 17th biggest win since 1946. The voice of America speaks in many tongues with many different messages. As it stands today, it is pretty evenly divided between D's and R's but, on the whole, the electorate thinks both parties are filled with crooks.
    and what something like 600 plus state legislative seats across the country. and the Democrats picked up how many? pretty clear picture to most people.
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    Quote Originally Posted by duckheads View Post
    and what something like 600 plus state legislative seats across the country. and the Democrats picked up how many? pretty clear picture to most people.
    Dems have a spineless donothing in the White House and have a very slim majority in the senate. (nobody controls the senate). Repubs own the house and the Supreme Court and the media. Advantage Republicans.

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    Quote Originally Posted by depittydawg View Post
    Dems have a spineless donothing in the White House and have a very slim majority in the senate. (nobody controls the senate). Repubs own the house and the Supreme Court and the media. Advantage Republicans.
    Don't you know it.
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    Senior Member subroc's Avatar
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    ...and minor gains in the Senate...
    6 senate seats is considered minor gains?
    subroc

    Article [I.]
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    Article [II.]
    A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

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    Senior Member YardleyLabs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by subroc View Post
    6 senate seats is considered minor gains?
    The unusual part was the brief period (only a few of months actually) when the Dems had 60 (actually 58+2). When the current Congress took office in 2009, Dems had 57 seats, plus two independents caucusing with Dems. Franken's seating was delayed for most of the first year by the Minnesota recounts, and Kennedy died a few months later, with only a few more months before the Rep's took over that seat. The brief period with 60 seats hadn't happened in 30 years. "Normal" majorities are 51-55 in the Senate. In the House, "normal" majorities are about 245, which is about where the Republicans may end up when all the ballots are counted. Reps lost 8 Senate seats in 1988, Dems lost 9 in 1994, Reps lost 5 in 2000, Dems lost 4 in 2004, Reps lost 6 in 2006 and another 4 in 2008. Based on that, a Democratic loss of 5-6 seats in 2010 is not earth shattering and the election results as a whole are no more of a massive shift than the elections of 1986, 1994, 2006, or 2008.

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    Quote Originally Posted by depittydawg View Post
    Dems have a spineless donothing in the White House and have a very slim majority in the senate. (nobody controls the senate). Repubs own the house and the Supreme Court and the media. Advantage Republicans.
    Yes, so I expect EVERY American who wants to work will have a job by New Years, the deficit will be erased, the debt will begin to decline, abortions will be at an all time low, as will crime, welfare, foodstamps, and the trade deficit. So far, I've been disappointed with the Speaker-elect, who has done NOTHING to effect the above changes. (except blow snot bubbles in public)
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