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Thread: History Shows 2012 Could Be Tough for Obama

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    Senior Member huntinman's Avatar
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    Default History Shows 2012 Could Be Tough for Obama

    A different perspective from Karl Rove.



    KARL ROVE: History Shows 2012 Will Be a Tough Battle for President Obama
    By Karl Rove

    Published February 21, 2011 | FoxNews.com

    This morning, Gov. Mike Huckabee told ABC's George Stephanopoulos that President Obama “is going to be tough to beat. I think all this talk that ‘oh, he’s going to be a one term president’ -- people tend to forget that only one time since 1868 has an incumbent president been taken out who ran for re-election.”

    I agree with Gov. Huckabee's sentiment about President Obama: 2012 will be a tough contest. But the governor's history needs a little polishing. Since 1868, five presidents were defeated for re-election (the number rises to six if 1868 is included in the series) and at least two presidents faced such long odds for re-election they gave up the contest.

    Grover Cleveland was defeated for re-election in 1888 after one term. His successor, Benjamin Harrison, was similarly defeated for re-election. William Howard Taft went down after one term in 1908. Herbert Hoover was booted after one term in 1932. Jimmy Carter (thankfully) made it only one term before being bested by Ronald Reagan. George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton after one term, opening the way for the rise of Huckabee to the vacant Arkansas lieutenant governor's office in a 1993 special election, following the elevation of Lt. Gov. Jim Guy Tucker to the governor's office. Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman both decided against running for re-election after serving their first complete terms, because their defeats were so likely. Rutherford Hayes was so unpopular that he was also a likely loser in 1880, but had pledged to serve only one term. And Gov. Huckabee's analogy starts in 1868, when President Andrew Johnson was so reviled that he couldn't be re-nominated.

    If the transcript is mistaken and Gov. Huckabee said "1968" rather than "1868," then two presidents -- Carter and Bush 41 -- have been defeated for re-election since 1968.

    A better way to look at it is that since WWII, five presidents have sought re-election and won (Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton and Bush 43) and four had either been defeated for re-election (Carter and Bush 41) or withdrawn from the contest because the odds were so long (Truman and LBJ). While President Obama is a slight favorite and a tough campaigner, the outcome of the 2012 contest very much depends on the quality of the GOP nominee and their campaign over the next 20 months.

    Karl Rove is the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush, and is the author of "Courage and Consequence" (Threshold Editions, 2010).
    Bill Davis

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    Senior Member BonMallari's Avatar
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    its going to take the country plunging further downward and a Conservative candidate emerging from a less than charismatic field to unseat BHO....I hope we (as a country) dont see the former and pray for the latter to happen...a lot can happen in the next 18 months
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    Senior Member Franco's Avatar
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    Looking over the field of potential GOP candidates, I think Obama is going to be extremely difficult to beat.

    The two that are better qualified are Mormons so, that eliminates much of the support from the religious right.

    Then we have the scorned woman from Alaska running moderates to the other party.

    The "big boy" club, Cristy and Barbour, neither can win.

    Thune is an a relative unknown.

    And, the one with the best credentials and ideas doesn't have any on-camera charisma.
    It's such a shame that in the USA, defending Liberty has become such a heroic deed.

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    Senior Member dnf777's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Franco View Post
    Looking over the field of potential GOP candidates, I think Obama is going to be extremely difficult to beat.



    The "big boy" club, Cristy and Barbour, neither can win.

    And, the one with the best credentials and ideas doesn't have any on-camera charisma.
    Why do you say Cristy can't win? (I agree with Barbor being unelectable.)
    What chances do you give Huckabee?
    God Bless PFC Jamie Harkness. The US Army's newest PFC, but still our neighbor's little girl!

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    Senior Member huntinman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Franco View Post
    Looking over the field of potential GOP candidates, I think Obama is going to be extremely difficult to beat.

    The two that are better qualified are Mormons so, that eliminates much of the support from the religious right.

    Then we have the scorned woman from Alaska running moderates to the other party.

    The "big boy" club, Cristy and Barbour, neither can win.

    Thune is an a relative unknown.

    And, the one with the best credentials and ideas doesn't have any on-camera charisma.
    So, according to you...let's just give Obama 4 more years right now?

    To be a winner, you have to think like a winner. Come on man, get a grip.
    Bill Davis

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    Senior Member Franco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dnf777 View Post
    Why do you say Cristy can't win? (I agree with Barbor being unelectable.)
    What chances do you give Huckabee?
    I give Huckabee a zero chance. Huckabee doesn't have enough support beyond Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama.

    Cristy is a political lightweight. We may hate Obama's politics but don't under estimate his campaigning ability. He is such a great campaigner that he won last time with zero credentials! He would make Christy look like a slob on the campaign trail.

    Right now, the best bet to upseat Obama is with either Huntsman or Romney and the best qualified is Paul.
    It's such a shame that in the USA, defending Liberty has become such a heroic deed.

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    Senior Member road kill's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Franco View Post
    I give Huckabee a zero chance. Huckabee doesn't have enough support beyond Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama.

    Cristy is a political lightweight. We may hate Obama's politics but don't under estimate his campaigning ability. He is such a great campaigner that he won last time with zero credentials! He would make Christy look like a slob on the campaign trail.

    Right now, the best bet to upseat Obama is with either Huntsman or Romney and the best qualified is Paul.
    1 mans opinion.



    RK
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    Senior Member huntinman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by road kill View Post
    1 mans opinion.



    RK
    and you know what those are like
    Bill Davis

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    Senior Member road kill's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by huntinman View Post
    and you know what those are like
    Pawlenty, Daniels, Walker.


    RK
    Stan b & Elvis

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    Senior Member Franco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by road kill View Post

    1 mans opinion.



    RK
    Everything on POTUS is one man's opinion, including yours!

    Running Christy or Barbour is the surest way of giving Obama 4 more years.
    It's such a shame that in the USA, defending Liberty has become such a heroic deed.

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