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Thread: Economy in Shambles?

  1. #21
    Senior Member troy schwab's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buzz View Post
    Oh, I guess the puts you in the "inflationista's" camp.
    Care to argue ANY OF IT??????????

    Didnt think so.......
    SHR Presque Isle Jaeger Schwab JH (driving the bus)

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buzz View Post
    I will only address this right now because it is 10:15 PM in South Dakota and I need to get out of my office and home to eat supper and go to bed...

    When I said:

    "With the rate on the 10 year, they are actually in essence "paying" the US Government to borrow their money."

    What I meant by this is, if there are expectations for high inflation, and investors believe that this expectation will come to fruition, then they expect to take a loss due to inflation. If they are willingly taking a loss, then in essence they are willing to pay the government for the privilege of holding on to their money for 10 years. The government is in this case borrowing money at a negative rate compared to inflation because what they return to the investor after 10 years is worth less than the investor lent to the government in the first place.

    I don't know why anyone would do that unless they:

    A. Believed that government bonds where the only safe place for them to stash their money besides their mattress where they'll take a bigger loss to inflation.
    B. They don't believe that high inflation rates are coming.
    I looked up the definition of "essence" to make sure of my accuracy of its definition and I am glad I did. Here it is: "that which makes a thing what it is". Not sure how one would consider your statement accurate since the fact is that lenders do not pay the gov. money to borrow their money. However I probably understood what you meant.

    I almost completely agree with your statements A& B. So let's take B first. I would modify it to say "anticipated inflation or actual inflation". Only a slight difference. I argue that current inflation is actually higher today than say in 2008 and anticipated higher inflation is and will be higher in the future. I hav cited factual numbers of those things indicating actual higher inflation. Are you argueing these numbers are wrong? I would like to know. If they do in fact show the presence of higher inflation, then you would have to admit that this is not the dominate reason for such low interest rates.

    Now look at your statement "A" which I also agree with. But let me go further and say that people invest their money based on two major factors those being "RISK VERSUS RETURN". If they feel that the "risk" is too high for the anticipated return" then they will choose not to invest. If they are willing to invest in that which returns a sure negative real return, then they cannot find an investment given the "risk" that might return a positive real return. Let me give you some examples of those things that have taken place in the last 2 1/2 years that in my opinion have severely affected in the desire of the market to invest. Take the health care bill with thousands of waivers. If you see a risk of your compeditors gaining a waiver and you don't thus giving them a competitive advantage to them, then surely your willingness to invest will decrease or even become nonexistant. Another example would be if you are affraid that the gov. might subsidize a similar but different product that you consider to be a possible replacement for your product then again you might be reluctant to invest. A prime example of this is actually the Chevy Volt which the gov. subsidizes to the tune of over $7,000. What if your company built internal combustion engines or parts for it for that matter. Just some things for you to thinkabout.

    As a side note. I must admit your comment about the Tea Party almost made me throw up. All of us at times speak without thinking, just human nature especially if frustrated. I suspect your creditability would be higher if you either justified such statements or just said that you spoke to quickly. I don't think I have ever attacked anyone on this forum personally and hope no one feels that I have and this is not meant as an attact on you. Just something for you to think about. I enjoy our discussions frankly since you are liberal in your thought.

    Cary Alsobrook

  3. #23
    Senior Member Uncle Bill's Avatar
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    You folks need to understand where Buzz got his 'smarts' when discussing the gubmint. I'm just not sure why he would leave his nirvana for such a lowly place as Sodak...Oh that's right...he has a job here.

    Hold onto your warped way of thinking, Buzz. When you return to the peninsula, or as the folks in "Joisey" call it...Uppa Youass...you won't have any of us Tea Party "jokes" as you see it, to cause your taxes to go up. Unfortunately you won't have Grandholm to genuflect to anymore.

    UB


    Let’s review what happened in Michigan in 2007 after the state’s budget problem was “solved” with tax increases:
    Under pressure from the state’s balanced-budget requirement — another crucial difference between Michigan then and Washington today — and after a brief government shutdown on October 1, Senate Republicans warily agreed to a deal involving a mix of tax hikes and benefits reform. They agreed to hike income taxes by 12 percent and impose a new set of service taxes on select business activity, raising $1.5 billion. In return, Republicans got fragile promises of spending reform.


    “This budget agreement is the right solution for Michigan,” crowed a victorious Granholm. “We prevented massive cuts to public education, health care, and public safety while also making extensive government reforms and passing new revenue. With the state back on solid financial footing, we can turn our focus to the critical task of jumpstarting our economy and creating new jobs.”

    Barack Obama couldn’t have said it better. Did it solve the problem?

    “Within literally hours of passing the tax hike,” recounts Mackinac Center legislative analyst Jack McHugh, “the legislature passed bills spending the entire $1.4 billion.” By the time Granholm handed over the wheel to Republican Rick Snyder three years later, the deficit had ballooned to $2 billion amidst a stalled economy.
    When the one you love becomes a memory, that memory becomes a treasure.

  4. #24
    Senior Member Steve Hester's Avatar
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    Anyone who thinks we don't have horrible inflation has to be smoking crack!!
    I'm not talking about government propaganda inflation. I'm talking about real inflation; gas, groceries, clothes, medicine, utilities, etc., the essentials of life, which our F'd up government does not even include in their inflation numbers. Between gas, groceries and cigarettes, I need a second job just to keep up.
    "A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have." - Thomas Jefferson

  5. #25
    Senior Member Bayou Magic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Hester View Post
    Anyone who thinks we don't have horrible inflation has to be smoking crack!!
    I'm not talking about government propaganda inflation. I'm talking about real inflation; gas, groceries, clothes, medicine, utilities, etc., the essentials of life, which our F'd up government does not even include in their inflation numbers. Between gas, groceries and cigarettes, I need a second job just to keep up.
    The low inflation rate and current jobless numbers are possibly the two biggest lies being sold to the public by the government. WHY doesn't the public demand some honesty in these matters. Sticking our heads in the sand does not address the problems and solves nothing.

    fp
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  6. #26
    Senior Member Gerry Clinchy's Avatar
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    It's seems totally mindless not to include groceries and energy in any assessment of "inflation". For the average American, the cost of groceries is a very real hit that the wealthy (like most of our legislators) never feel. Same for gas.
    G.Clinchy@gmail.com
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  7. #27
    Senior Member cotts135's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by luvmylabs23139 View Post
    Buzz,
    The person you quote is wrong about Obumma not having any tax increases yet, so I will need their crap no further than that.
    Fact: Federal tax on cigs has been increased and that has been a fact for a while.
    Fact : 10% tax on going to the tanning salon is already in effect.
    Those are 2 off the top of my head, so YES BUMMA HAS INCREASED TAXES!
    Does that still mean that 49% of the people in this country don't pay any taxes? I mean I hear that figure a lot from the conservatives who find it convenient not to include those types of taxes. Do they count?

  8. #28
    Senior Member huntinman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cotts135 View Post
    Does that still mean that 49% of the people in this country don't pay any taxes? I mean I hear that figure a lot from the conservatives who find it convenient not to include those types of taxes. Do they count?
    Income taxes.... and it's up to 51%
    Bill Davis

  9. #29
    Senior Member luvmylabs23139's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cotts135 View Post
    Does that still mean that 49% of the people in this country don't pay any taxes? I mean I hear that figure a lot from the conservatives who find it convenient not to include those types of taxes. Do they count?
    NO, 51% pay zero federeal income taxes. I would love to get a number on those who actually have a profit on federal income taxes. By that I mean zero liability and a nice check from the real taxpayers.
    Both of the taxes I listed for no other reason than BUMFACE did raise taxes are personally avoidable by not smoking or going to the tanning salon.
    However,
    THe increase in federal cig tax was used and implimented to SPEND more money on some kids healthcare program (SOCIALISM ). Has nothing to do with smoking. The numbers failed. THey increased the spending and claimed it would reduce smoking. The facts are the increase in spending vs the tax increase would require a great increase in cig sales to net out.
    So to just not lose money, many more people would need to start smoking.
    How stupid is that?
    Hihope Hiland Heathen of Perth CD, RE, CGC, TDI

  10. #30
    Senior Member Gerry Clinchy's Avatar
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    I'd venture that each time the cig tax goes up, some people DO stop smoking. Thus, negating some of the anticipated revenue from the tax.

    Lest we forget, though, such increases can also stimulate more black market activity (from states with lower cig tax to states with higher cig tax).

    It occurs to me, if you get Medicaid, are you required to quit smoking? Or quit using illegal drugs? Wonder why not?
    G.Clinchy@gmail.com
    "Know in your heart that all things are possible. We couldn't conceive of a miracle if none ever happened." -Libby Fudim

    ​I don't use the PM feature, so just email me direct at the address shown above.

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