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Thread: The Republican Economy

  1. #1
    Senior Member Buzz's Avatar
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    Default The Republican Economy

    This most recent article from Krugman says it all. Looking at the curves I attached at the bottom showing current trends in government spending and tax receipts as a percent of GDP SHOULD drive his point home.

    BUT, I'm sure that I'm about to hear that I'm FOS. Have at it...




    OP-ED COLUMNIST

    This Republican Economy

    By PAUL KRUGMAN

    Published: June 3, 2012


    What should be done about the economy? Republicans claim to have the answer: slash spending and cut taxes. What they hope voters won’t notice is that that’s precisely the policy we’ve been following the past couple of years. Never mind the Democrat in the White House; for all practical purposes, this is already the economic policy of Republican dreams.


    So the Republican electoral strategy is, in effect, a gigantic con game: it depends on convincing voters that the bad economy is the result of big-spending policies that President Obama hasn’t followed (in large part because the G.O.P. wouldn’t let him), and that our woes can be cured by pursuing more of the same policies that have already failed.For some reason, however, neither the press nor Mr. Obama’s political team has done a very good job of exposing the con.

    What do I mean by saying that this is already a Republican economy? Look first at total government spending — federal, state and local. Adjusted for population growth and inflation, such spending has recently been falling at a rate not seen since the demobilization that followed the Korean War.
    How is that possible? Isn’t Mr. Obama a big spender? Actually, no; there was a brief burst of spending in late 2009 and early 2010 as the stimulus kicked in, but that boost is long behind us. Since then it has been all downhill. Cash-strapped state and local governments have laid off teachers, firefighters and police officers; meanwhile, unemployment benefits have been trailing off even though unemployment remains extremely high.
    Over all, the picture for America in 2012 bears a stunning resemblance to the great mistake of 1937, when F.D.R. prematurely slashed spending, sending the U.S. economy — which had actually been recovering fairly fast until that point — into the second leg of the Great Depression. In F.D.R.’s case, however, this was an unforced error, since he had a solidly Democratic Congress. In President Obama’s case, much though not all of the responsibility for the policy wrong turn lies with a completely obstructionist Republican majority in the House.

    That same obstructionist House majority effectively blackmailed the president into continuing all the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, so that federal taxes as a share of G.D.P. are near historic lows — much lower, in particular, than at any point during Ronald Reagan’s presidency.

    As I said, for all practical purposes this is already a Republican economy.

    As an aside, I think it’s worth pointing out that although the economy’s performance has been disappointing, to say the least, none of the disasters Republicans predicted have come to pass. Remember all those assertions that budget deficits would lead to soaring interest rates? Well, U.S. borrowing costs have just hit a record low. And remember those dire warnings about inflation and the “debasement” of the dollar? Well, inflation remains low, and the dollar has been stronger than it was in the Bush years.

    Put it this way: Republicans have been warning that we were about to turn into Greece because President Obama was doing too much to boost the economy; Keynesian economists like myself warned that we were, on the contrary, at risk of turning into Japan because he was doing too little. And Japanification it is, except with a level of misery the Japanese never had to endure.
    So why don’t voters know any of this?

    Part of the answer is that far too much economic reporting is still of the he-said, she-said variety, with dueling quotes from hired guns on either side. But it’s also true that the Obama team has consistently failed to highlight Republican obstruction, perhaps out of a fear of seeming weak. Instead, the president’s advisers keep turning to happy talk, seizing on a few months’ good economic news as proof that their policies are working — and then ending up looking foolish when the numbers turn down again. Remarkably, they’ve made this mistake three times in a row: in 2010, 2011 and now once again.

    At this point, however, Mr. Obama and his political team don’t seem to have much choice. They can point with pride to some big economic achievements, above all the successful rescue of the auto industry, which is responsible for a large part of whatever job growth we are managing to get. But they’re not going to be able to sell a narrative of overall economic success. Their best bet, surely, is to do a Harry Truman, to run against the “do-nothing” Republican Congress that has, in reality, blocked proposals — for tax cuts as well as more spending — that would have made 2012 a much better year than it’s turning out to be.
    For that, in the end, is the best argument against Republicans’ claims that they can fix the economy. The fact is that we have already seen the Republican economic future — and it doesn’t work.



    Total US Tax Revenue as a Percentage of GDP



    US Tax Revenue as a Fraction of GDP by Component





    This one is perty, so I threw it in...





    Last edited by Buzz; 06-07-2012 at 12:07 PM.
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    Senior Member road kill's Avatar
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    Buzz,
    As usual you are just plain "cutting edge."
    Anything deviant from your ideas of course are (and I quote) "horse crap."

    I am wondering, since you are so good at graphs and all.........could you show us a graph showing we unwashed what the Obama economy looks like???


    Just askin'...........
    Stan b & Elvis

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    Senior Member sandyg's Avatar
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    Anyone can spin statistics anyway they want. But when I read this, "And remember those dire warnings about inflation and the “debasement” of the dollar? Well, inflation remains low, and the dollar has been stronger than it was in the Bush years.", yet when I KNOW my grocery bills, utility bills, and fuel prices have all increased significantly, and the dollar is stronger only because the EU is falling apart, I KNOW the author, in this case a bitter liberal, is being disingenuous and I take what he writes with a grain of salt.

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    why are the revenue charts only up until 2005?
    "I'm gonna lean up against you, and you lean up against me. That way we don't hafta sleep with our heads in the mud"
    Forrest Gump, 1994

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    Senior Member huntinman's Avatar
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    Buzz, you're not FOS... Krugman is though... You are just regurgitating the crap.
    Bill Davis

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    Senior Member Buzz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ARay11 View Post
    why are the revenue charts only up until 2005?

    They are not. The last axis label is 2005, but the axis extends to 2009 or 2010. I don't have 2012 numbers, but it shows revenue dropping further...

    The real government spending per capita extends to 2012...
    "For everyone to whom much is given, of him shall much be required." -- Luke 12:48

    Raven - Moneybird's Black Magic Marker***
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    Mick - Moneybird's Jumpin' Jack Flash***
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    Peerless - Moneybird's Sole Survivor
    (Two River's Lucky Willie x Moneybird's Black Magic Marker)

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    Quote Originally Posted by ARay11 View Post
    why are the revenue charts only up until 2005?
    looks like all 3 charts run thru 2010.-Paul
    there's no good reason to fatten up a retriever.

  8. #8
    Senior Member Buzz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by road kill View Post
    Buzz,
    As usual you are just plain "cutting edge."
    Anything deviant from your ideas of course are (and I quote) "horse crap."

    I am wondering, since you are so good at graphs and all.........could you show us a graph showing we unwashed what the Obama economy looks like???


    Just askin'...........

    You mean this one?


    "For everyone to whom much is given, of him shall much be required." -- Luke 12:48

    Raven - Moneybird's Black Magic Marker***
    (Esprit's Power Play x Trumarc's Lean Cuisine)
    Mick - Moneybird's Jumpin' Jack Flash***
    (Clubmead's Road Warrior x Oakdale Whitewater Devil Dog)
    Peerless - Moneybird's Sole Survivor
    (Two River's Lucky Willie x Moneybird's Black Magic Marker)

  9. #9
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    IMPRESSIVE. (and now I do see the charts, LOL)
    very interesting stats.
    "I'm gonna lean up against you, and you lean up against me. That way we don't hafta sleep with our heads in the mud"
    Forrest Gump, 1994

  10. #10
    Senior Member Sean H's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buzz View Post
    You mean this one?
    But I thought Obama couldn't do anything because the Republicans won't let him? Your article says so.
    Topform's B-2 Spirit MH

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