Climbing the Wall of Worry

[Marvin S]

Dow closed today @13,954.42, 210.11 below it's all time high of 14,164.53 in 2007. Though the Dow is large caps & has only slowly came back from it low in 2008 & early 2009, What say you? Will it surpass the high on this runup or will there be a 10% correction before it zooms past the previous all time high? & for those of you invested has this been a good market for you?

[roseberry]

marvin,

go into a full cash positon tomorrow at ~14,100. buy back in on the way back up at ~7,500. that's what i did last time.....worked out great for me

i wish that's what i did last time.......

jmc

[Marvin S]

marvin,

go into a full cash positon tomorrow at ~14,100. buy back in on the way back up at ~7,500. that's what i did last time.....worked out great for me

i wish that's what i did last time.......

jmc

Now is probably the time to look at those stocks that you might like to prune, that haven't done so well or are where you think they will top. The guys that do mutual funds successfully, picking what they think are winners, generally do better than the indexers in a high uncertain market. They also do not sell out of good positions . You do not win them all.

[Dan Storts]

Bonds were hammered Friday and Monday with the 10 year going above 2% for the first time since last April. Bond traders tend to be a little more ahead of the game. During this time the dollar has also been decreasing in value. If the currency wars ramp up and the dollar goes down the market should bust right through the 14k. i believe 15 to 15.5 is possible.

A example of what one stock can do to the Dow is Apple. if it would have been one of the 30 stocks which make up the Dow, and it was a consideration not long ago, the market would have lost about 1700 points with its correction in the last few weeks.

The dollar is now around 80 but if or when it gets around 75 be nervous but at 72 watch out. The is just a opinion from a dummy.

[Marvin S]

Bonds were hammered Friday and Monday with the 10 year going above 2% for the first time since last April. Bond traders tend to be a little more ahead of the game. During this time the dollar has also been decreasing in value. If the currency wars ramp up and the dollar goes down the market should bust right through the 14k. i believe 15 to 15.5 is possible.

A example of what one stock can do to the Dow is Apple. if it would have been one of the 30 stocks which make up the Dow, and it was a consideration not long ago, the market would have lost about 1700 points with its correction in the last few weeks.

The dollar is now around 80 but if or when it gets around 75 be nervous but at 72 watch out. The is just a opinion from a dummy.

Bonds have along way to go before they are in buy territory - though it would be nice to have that assured income. Calls, expirations, & just plain low interest rates have made bonds a no buy for several years.

AAPL is an anomoly - it makes great cutting edge products & like HOG has a great fan base - but it still sells a commodity (think RCA, Motorola & where they are now) - at it's $700 price with a PE of 15.87 & a yield of 1.51% it's too risky a stock for an average portfolio to hold - They are a few years late on some stock splits - As for it's postion even in the Dow, probably not a good stock for that but how many own a Dow portfolio, we certainly don't though we do own a couple of Dow stocks. But say you bought a position 10 years ago when AAPL was less expensive, at what point would you have said, I can't sleep at night thinking about this runup & more than likely an eventual rundown. The market can be brutal as we are witnessing but this is a good lesson in how to deal with selling.

I've never followed the dollar closely, though we bought a few thousand in canadian money when we were doing the trials there at about .65, most has now been spent. It has been good for border merchants as the Canadians make up a good 50% of the cars in the malls on weekends & are real spenders.