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Thread: The AU Standard?

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    Default The AU Standard?

    Down over $100 today - anyone besides UB own AU? I sold my AU miner about a year ago.

    While I believe there should be some standard applied, anyone here think the AU standard is the answer. I can't believe, with the computing power available that there could not be some standard that would stop the monopoly money creation? There are commodities more relative to what's happening but I don't have the computing power to advance that theory. I find TI more relevant but again, maybe in the long term there is a mixture that would do the job?
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    Senior Member Sabireley's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marvin S View Post
    Down over $100 today - anyone besides UB own AU? I sold my AU miner about a year ago.

    While I believe there should be some standard applied, anyone here think the AU standard is the answer. I can't believe, with the computing power available that there could not be some standard that would stop the monopoly money creation? There are commodities more relative to what's happening but I don't have the computing power to advance that theory. I find TI more relevant but again, maybe in the long term there is a mixture that would do the job?
    Look up Bitcoin.

    http://bitcoin.org/en/

    It is designed to do just what you describe. I don't know much about it, but the idea is interesting.

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    I like the theory behind BitCoin but it has no intrinsic value. It's fiat that's not controlled by banks or governments. But it's still fiat. Gold and silver have history as a means of exchange and store of value that goes back around 2600 years.

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    Senior Member Uncle Bill's Avatar
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    If anyone thinks they can't lose their arses trading 'bitcoins'...pity the pour souls that "bought in" around 300 and had them drop under 100 in a couple of days. (Please don't quote me on those numbers, I wasn't watching THAT closely)

    Fear not for me, Marvin. My AU is averaged out at $300, and my AG is around $8.00, so it can "correct" quit a bit before it starts to 'hurt'. Way better than the bath I took in the "dot com" fiasco.

    UB
    When the one you love becomes a memory, that memory becomes a treasure.

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    Senior Member troy schwab's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Bill View Post
    Fear not for me, Marvin. My AU is averaged out at $300, and my AG is around $8.00, so it can "correct" quit a bit before it starts to 'hurt'. Way better than the bath I took in the "dot com" fiasco.

    UB
    Wanna profit take???? LOL Ill buy your AU for $500....... and your AG at $12............... GUARANTEEEEEEEED MONEY!!!!!!!!!!! ROFL Good for you Bill!
    SHR Presque Isle Jaeger Schwab JH (driving the bus)

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    Senior Member Uncle Bill's Avatar
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    Here's a FWIW from Laissez Faire. Just further info you might find interesting. UB

    April 18, 2013

    Gold and the Wacky Human Mind

    Dear Laissez Faire Today Reader,
    Doug French
    The voting machine that is the market deemed an ounce of gold to be worth $1,600 a few days ago and then, whoops, two days later, that same market, the collection of rational minds that trade in the metal, valued that same ounce to be worth less than $1,400.
    Keep in mind: These prices are in dollars that are not backed by anything other than Uncle Sam's less-than-creditworthy promise.
    Economists of the rational-expectations school and believers in the efficient-market hypothesis must be scratching their heads. These deep thinkers contend all information is known in the market. There are no such things as bubbles and busts.

    The final phase of America's ongoing debt crisis is almost here. And analyst Marc Lichtenfeld has pinpointed the time and place. This event could wipe out millions of investors. But it will make a small percentage very rich. How? The debt crunch will soon create the world's first $93 trillion investment opportunity. The key is preparing now.

    And this presentation reveals everything you need to know. Simply click here for details...

    Wikipedia explains rational expectations,
    "it is assumed that outcomes that are being forecast do not differ systematically from the market equilibrium results. That is, it assumes that people do not make systematic errors when predicting the future, and deviations from perfect foresight are only random."
    Yep, that sounds exactly like you, me, and your idiot brother-in-law. Nobody makes mistakes when predicting the future.
    Yeah, right.

    At the same time, Eugene Fama, father of the efficient-markets hypothesis, says, "I think most bubbles are 20-20 hindsight." When asked by John Cassidy at the New Yorker to clarify whether he thought bubbles can exist, Fama answered "They [bubbles] have to be predictable phenomena."

    Fama is no Nobel laureate, but he did co-author a textbook with Nobel Prize winner Merton H. Miller, and he himself has won plenty of prestigious awards for his theoretical work.

    These guys can theorize all they want to, and win awards doing it, but what they have to say has nothing to do with how markets act and react.

    This week's Laissez Faire Club author, Alec Macfie, was an economist lecturing at the University of Glasgow back in the 1930s. He had a better head on his shoulders than today's fuzzy-minded theoreticians who evidently haven't taken the time to look out of their campus office windows to see how the world really works.

    Macfie explores the ups and downs of the business cycle as well as investment booms and busts in his elegantly written Theories of the Trade Cycle. He not only, among other things, provides a clear synopsis of Hayek's Austrian Business Cycle theory, but he also makes use of psychology to solve the business cycle puzzle. Investor errors are revealed in a crash as entrepreneurial errors are revealed by recessions. In Macfie's view, the term error should be substituted with "excesses of optimism and pessimism."

    He explains that in a bull market the possibility of potential profits is spread by suggestion and is overemphasized. Investors hear the potential but not any opposing rational criticism. "A man acting under the influence of suggestion is like commander of a submarine observing his enemy through a periscope. He sees his easy prey and is impelled toward it, but his periscope cloaks from him the surrounding dangers," writes Macfie.
    But how could investors or entrepreneurs go from bullish to bearish so quickly to create huge drops in assets prices? A. C. Pigou, a renown English economist at the time, sheds some light on this, explaining, "An industrial boom has necessarily been a period of strong emotional excitement, and an excited man passes from one form of excitement to another more readily than he passes to quiescence."
    So for investors there is no inbetween, they go from bullish to bearish in the blink of an eye. Just what is it that sets them off? "It is, of course, common knowledge that we tend to manufacture rational explanations for conduct which springs largely from our unconscious urges," Macfie explains. "Every politician, every elector, exemplifies this."
    Manufactured rational explanations or rationalization is constant in individual finance, according to Elliott Wave's Robert Prechter. Individuals use reason to succeed in economic endeavours. However, in finance, individuals rationalize the decisions they have made that amount to simply herding with other investors. Rather than make their own valuations, investors depend upon others' valuations. Rather than having knowledge about markets they remain ignorant. Rather than using objective value, investors value subjectively.
    Bubbles and crashes are consistent with nonrational risk aversion, but not with rational assessments of risk. Still, people are hyper risk sensitive and often resort to bailout first and analyze later. "Thus, it is the instinct of each herd member to flee from danger that supplies the force behind the stampede," writes Professor Macfie, even though that force maybe be a mere suggestion.
    And while an individual will achieve prosperity acting in the economic sphere, that same person will chase booms and busts in finance. Why? According to Prechter, speaking at The 2013 Socionomics Summit in Atlanta, these decisions are made with two completely different parts of the brain. We use the rational part of our brain, the neocortex, to make economic decisions and maximize utility. However, investment decisions are made in the limbic system, that is driven by emotion, making us follow the herd.
    Does any of this make sense from an evolutionary standpoint? Actually, yes, according to Prechter, "Prosperity keeps humans alive in the short run. Setbacks keep the species alive in the long run."
    The pummeling of gold was certainly a setback for those who are betting against the central bank controlled new world order. But one should realize that central bankers are no more than academic theoreticians lucky enough to get a government job. Their views of how the how the economy and markets work have no basis in reality.

    Yes, the gold herd was spooked a few days ago. But the yellow metal has been around a lot longer than Ph.D. economists and will prove more durable in the end.

    Sincerely,
    Doug French
    When the one you love becomes a memory, that memory becomes a treasure.

  7. #7
    Senior Member troy schwab's Avatar
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    Is that a no????
    SHR Presque Isle Jaeger Schwab JH (driving the bus)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Bill View Post
    If anyone thinks they can't lose their arses trading 'bitcoins'...pity the pour souls that "bought in" around 300 and had them drop under 100 in a couple of days. (Please don't quote me on those numbers, I wasn't watching THAT closely)

    Fear not for me, Marvin. My AU is averaged out at $300, and my AG is around $8.00, so it can "correct" quit a bit before it starts to 'hurt'. Way better than the bath I took in the "dot com" fiasco.

    UB
    I guess I can't see where bitcoins have anything more behind them than fiat money printed by the various governments. At least the governments have assets that can be taken at some price .

    As for our AU miner bought on the recommend of a very prominent stock recommender - kept to the point it was not moving up with the increase in value of the actual AU - sold at a less than acceptable profit, but a profit no less . Now is down more than 50% from our sale point.

    As for AG - was in MT when they stopped making a yearly supply of of AG coins for the mining states - collected as many as I could find, so have a small supply of coins, some of numismatic value but mostly not, at $1 per oz . They will go to our heirs hopefully, so they can see what real money was. You can't believe how fast they ceased to circulate. I will tell you, they were damned hard on the pockets of my wranglers .

    I'm glad you have a nice cushion - when the price goes down it's always nice to know it will have to go uncharacteristically low to create a negative situation.
    __________________________

    Marvin S

    Everyone's friend is No One's friend

    Someday your life will flash before your eyes. It's your responsibility to make sure it's worth watching!

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