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Thread: DOW is "00" Dog #1 starts.

  1. #11
    Senior Member EdA's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Wegner View Post
    So, given that the rulebook says this: "If the DJIA Number is 00, the dog given number one at the draw shall be the first running dog." assuming there are more than 100 dogs in a stake, is it correct that dog #100 and above never stand a chance of being first, regardless of what the Dow is???
    Given the current wording of the rule your assumption is correct.

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  3. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Wegner View Post
    So, given that the rulebook says this: "If the DJIA Number is 00, the dog given number one at the draw shall be the first running dog." assuming there are more than 100 dogs in a stake, is it correct that dog #100 and above never stand a chance of being first, regardless of what the Dow is???
    There was a chance during the drawing of the running order that dogs numbered 100 and above could have been any other number from 1 to n. So every dog entered has exactly the same chance of running 1st.
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  4. #13
    Senior Member Dan Wegner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by captainjack View Post
    There was a chance during the drawing of the running order that dogs numbered 100 and above could have been any other number from 1 to n. So every dog entered has exactly the same chance of running 1st.
    Technically speaking, no. They had the same chance as every other dog of drawing a number from 1-99, but then with the DOW, those first 99 dogs have a 1 in 99 shot of running first and those who end up with numbers over 100 have 0% chance. Two different things.

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  6. #14
    Senior Member captainjack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Wegner View Post
    Technically speaking, no. They had the same chance as every other dog of drawing a number from 1-99, but then with the DOW, those first 99 dogs have a 1 in 99 shot of running first and those who end up with numbers over 100 have 0% chance. Two different things.
    Same thing, if 105 dogs entered, each dog has a 1/105 chance of being first to run. Those are the odds regardless of how many steps are in the process.
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  7. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by captainjack View Post
    Same thing, if 105 dogs entered, each dog has a 1/105 chance of being first to run. Those are the odds regardless of how many steps are in the process.
    What number has to get drawn for dog 105 to run first? The way I read it, only the last two digits of the Dow are used.
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  8. #16
    Senior Member captainjack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjoiner View Post
    What number has to get drawn for dog 105 to run first? The way I read it, only the last two digits of the Dow are used.
    Dog 105 could have drawn any other number from 1 to 104 in the initial draw of the running order. That dog had exactly the same chance of being dog 1 as every other dog entered.
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  9. #17
    Senior Member Dan Wegner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by captainjack View Post
    Dog 105 could have drawn any other number from 1 to 104 in the initial draw of the running order. That dog had exactly the same chance of being dog 1 as every other dog entered.
    I don't mean to be argumentative Glen. You are correct that all dogs had a chance of being assigned running order numbers 1-99, but that is only the firrst step of the process. When the Dow closes at 4 PM EST on the Tuesday prior to the trial, those with dog numbers 1-99 have a 1 in 99 chance of running first while those with dog numbers 100+ have no chance. They are two separate and distinct processes.

  10. #18
    Senior Member captainjack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Wegner View Post
    I don't mean to be argumentative Glen. You are correct that all dogs had a chance of being assigned running order numbers 1-99, but that is only the firrst step of the process. When the Dow closes at 4 PM EST on the Tuesday prior to the trial, those with dog numbers 1-99 have a 1 in 99 chance of running first while those with dog numbers 100+ have no chance. They are two separate and distinct processes.
    My only point was that each dog has the same chance to be #1 when entering a trial, so the current process is fair and effective in determining a starter.
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  11. #19
    Senior Member Ted Shih's Avatar
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    I think that the system could be tweaked to make it fairer. But, we don't have many 100 dog trials anymore and the Dow rarely ends at 00. But, I know I would rather draw #100 than #1
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    Mississippi valley 100 Dog open next weekend. Dow ends tomorrow.
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